My feelings exactly. I am very concerned about this matchup. Instinctually and historical wise, I don't just see us taking this series. Boy I hope I am wrong.
The average postseason start in 2019 was just over 5 IP/GS. All their WS starts were either average in depth or deeper than normal. Three of their wins were with three relievers or less and a starter (or 2). The other was a blow out. I think the charactorization that the Nationals won by starters going deep and avoiding middle relievers is mostly correct in their wins. The correction would be that the Nationals used Corbin, a starter, like the Astros have used Javier to avoid pitching their mediocre relievers too much in high leverage situations.
I am digging deeper into the matchup but I think the matchup favors the Astros quite a bit. Still gotta play the games but I think it's their turn. If the Phillies have an advantage, it's hitting and 4 days off and good deep pitching is the best way to neutralize it. The top 5 Phillies hitters all strike out 21 % or more often. Among the Astros top 6, only Pena is 19% or higher. The Astros are much better pitching and defensive team and they have the experience. Astros in 6.
IMHO just like the Yankees series it comes down to limiting HRs from our SP. I’m not expecting 8-9 runs from our offense but I do expect our starters to continue to limit the damage. On offense we need to apply pressure to their sub par defense. I need some stolen bases and windmill Pettis.
I think some of us are still shell shocked from 2019 and 2021. This is a different Astros team than both those teams.
It will be interesting to see how the Phillies attack the Alvarez/Bregman/Tucker trio with their pen. Roberton and Suarez are good against LHB but not so good against RHB. Of their relievers only Alvardo appears to be quite good against both LHB and RHB and he won't be used until late.
Looking at it from a balanced logical viewpoint, one or more of Altuve, Tucker, Mancini will turn it around for the World Series. I don’t say Alvarez there because he already started turning it around the last game. Altuve, Tucker, and Mancini I feel like will be the X factor. These guys are too good and experienced to not turn it around for the World Series. I don’t know if all 3 will, but if we can get 1 or 2 of them to play at the level they can then I think we take this series pretty handily.
Some very concerning trivia on the eve of the 2022 World Series. Only THREE times in MLB playoff history has a team come from behind more than 7 runs: 1929 Philadelphia Athletics 2008 Boston Red Sox 2022 Seattle Mariners (Catastrophic stock market crashes took place in '29 and '08...what are we looking at for 2022?) Notice who WON it all during those seasons: 1929 Philadelphia Athletics 2008 Philadelphia Phillies 2022 ?? Seems kind of funky and disheartening. And this pic reeks of "predictive programming" in conspiracy theory terminology. Regardless, Go 'stros!
I'm as nervous as anyone but I'm tired af of seeing all the negative BS in here. It's okay to be cautiously optimistic without painting a doomsday scenario before a single pitch is even thrown. This is going to be a tough series, regardless of how many games it goes. Let's ****ing get this done.
