https://theathletic.com/3726642/202...stros-phillies-playoffs-predictions-matchups/ Why the Astros will win The Astros are 7-0 in the postseason. Losing a series would require losing 4-of-7. The math just doesn’t add up for any team in the sport to be able to handle this Houston team over that long a stretch. The Astros have the ability to win in so many ways. It doesn’t matter if Altuve, Kyle Tucker and Alvarez all struggle, like they did in the ALCS. There will be another phase of this team that can fill in the blanks. In the ALDS, the starting pitching wasn’t superb in Game 1 or Game 2. It didn’t matter. The Astros will always find a way. The Phillies and their incredible run will surely make for fun competition. But it’s hard to envision that they’ll be able to win, especially with Houston owning home-field advantage. The Astros are a dynasty at this point. And a statement like that probably won’t even be controversial if they end up winning it all. Houston has lost its last two World Series to teams in the NL East. But this might actually be the most complete Houston team. Or at least the team playing the best at the right time. -Sam Blum Why the Phillies will win At this point, it’s best not to question what is happening. No, the Phillies do not have as robust a roster as the Astros do. But they were underdogs in the three previous series, and all they did was win nine of 11 games. They never faced elimination. It hasn’t always looked easy but, in reality, the Phillies have advanced to the World Series without major adversity. They have time — just as Houston does — to rest and align their pitchers as they want. Are the Astros deeper? Yes. Does depth win the World Series? Not always. If they steal one at Minute Maid Park with Nola and Wheeler on the mound, it’s a series. That was the Phillies’ formula to beat the Braves and Padres. Why not again? They are undefeated at Citizens Bank Park this postseason. There is a real home advantage in South Philly. This will be a challenge for the star hitters that power this Phillies lineup. They have not faced the caliber of pitching that Houston boasts. But Harper is right now in a stratosphere reached by few others in the history of postseason baseball. Hoskins is streaky, but he’s on one of those hot stretches. Add in Schwarber or Realmuto, plus a good at-bat or two from the bottom of the lineup, and it’s not hard to see enough offense every night. This is so ridiculous. Lean into it. Can the Phillies win the World Series? Of course they can. -Matt Gelb Why the Astros will lose There are only two other teams to sweep through the LDS and the LCS. The Rockies in 2007 and the Royals in 2014. Both teams lost in the World Series. Yes, both teams will have the same amount of rest between the LCS and the World Series, but the copious off days for the Astros this month might not be advantageous. They had time off after the regular season. Time off after the Division Series. And time off after the Championship Series. At some point, it could impact the positive momentum of the group. The Phillies will probably need the Astros to be off their game in some way. Houston has won a lot of close games. Maybe Pressly coughs up a late lead. Maybe a starting pitcher puts the Astros in a deep hole. Maybe the mayhem at Citizens Bank Park proves to be too tough a home-field advantage. That’s what it will take to give the Phillies some leeway in this series. -Blum Why the Phillies will lose It’s the Astros — not the Cardinals, Braves or Padres. The Astros can exploit the weakest parts of an opponent. Mistakes in the postseason are compromising; mistakes in the postseason against the Astros are back-breaking. The Phillies did enough in the NLDS and NLCS to mask their fielding deficiencies. It will be far harder to hide misplays in the World Series. Houston had the second-lowest strikeout rate in MLB during the season. The Astros put the ball in play. They will test the Phillies’ defense. The Phillies will have to win by outslugging the Astros at least once in this series, and that is easier said than done. Although the Phillies found advantageous matchups with their relievers against the Braves and Padres, it will be difficult to do that in this round. Alvarado and Domínguez have shouldered huge workloads this month. The Phillies won’t win the World Series without those two continuing to pitch well and pitch often. Alvarado, in particular, looked less sharp later in the NLCS. Perhaps it was a sign of fatigue; maybe the break between the rounds will help. Maybe not. After Eflin, the bullpen depth chart is murky. David Robertson and Brad Hand struggled in the NLCS. Someone will have to step into a setup role during the World Series. It’s a glaring issue. If Nola or Wheeler falters, the path to a Phillies series win is arduous. -Gelb
I could make an argument that Verlander needs the Astros more than the Astros need him. We have an abundance of seasoned SP that is both deep and high quality. Javier could be a SP1 for all we know. No, he hasn’t done it yet, but the data and eye test suggest he is a dude. Framber and mccullers are No2/3 on contending teams, assuming health, Garcia a 3, Brown is a serious potential force and Urquidi’s track record speaks for itself. I could argue that we need an impact bat more than JV’s return. At this stage of his career, I think his paramount goal is reaching 300 wins. He is familiar with the Astros system and coaches, and staying gives him among the best chances of reaching that goal. I could see Crane and JV agreeing to a deal that includes a deal that JV wears an Astros hat when he enters cooperstown.
Agree with most of your post other than the Cooperstown bit. First off JV pitched for much longer and had arguably more individual accolades with the Tigers right now. Even after the likely Cy Young this year, it would take another Cy Young and/or a few more single season leading seasons to match the Detroit career. Also, it's not completely up to him:
Pretty sure there are a lot of teams he could go to and win lots of games. The Astros this year were 8th in baseball in offense. Dodgers scored 100+ more runs than the Astros. Yankees, Braves, Blue Jays, Mets, Cardinals, Phillies all did too - every one of them is a contender.
Your favorite moment in the ALCS? Mine is Vazquez putting the kibosh on the Yankees hopes of coming back in this series by getting the huge 2 run single to make it 5-0 in game 3.
Coming right after Mancini hit the go ahead sac fly… 2 guys, brought in at the deadline, severely under performing, just taking that game for us. Still want more from them, but man was that cool to see back to back.
A lot of weird people in here acting like they’re inside JV’s head. Wouldn’t be surprised at all if he came back, but I’m not going to make blanket statements about how he thinks.
The final out in game 4 lol. Honorable mention to Bader dropping the ball. TV broadcast showing a replay of Cole pointing to Bader saying I got you. McCormick immediately hitting a 2 homerun. Also liked the Torres IKF double play blunder which eventually lead to the tying and go ahead run. Damn there's too many. The "wind" knocking down the ball where Judge would have had a go ahead homerun late in the game was epic as well.
In John E. Peterson's book The Kansas City Athletics, A Baseball History 1954-1967 has a quote from the colorful Bill Veeck saying, "Until Arnold Johnson died, Kansas City was not an Independent Major League baseball team at all. It was nothing more than a loosely controlled Yankee farm club." https://247sports.com/mlb/athletics/Article/Athletics-History-KC-As-Yankees-Pipeline-104402240/
His Castro moment from last year. Speaking of Castro, it was great to see him and Uncle Mike in the dugout. I'm sure they're impacting the team and imparting whatever they can to help the guys.
Did anyone else notice in the post series interviews that a couple different players talked about how resilient the team has been by losing good players and then their replacements stepping up, specifically naming Correa, Springer and Charlie Morton but not Gerrit Cole? Do you think that was on purpose. Had it been one guy I would have thought so but I'm pretty sure both Altuve and McCullers did the same thing. Are they just screwing with Cole or is there maybe some underlying anger at the way he left? Or am I reading too much into it?
Pitchers kinda live in their own world, while I have no reason to think they had issues, I doubt many of them we're particularly close with Cole, he has never come across as the warmest character. Combined with the fact that he wasn't on the title team, and was pretty much universally accepted as a mercenary who was here for 2 seasons. Correa and Springer were core guys, and Morton while not a core player was on the title team, seems to be very well liked by teammates, and there was good reason to think he could (should) have stayed.
I vaguely remember Wade Boggs making some kind of deal with Tampa Bay DEVIL Rays to wear their hat in the Hall and it getting vetoed. I agree that none of us know what JV thinks. That said he has said he wants to pitch into his mid 40s. It is widely accepted that 300 wins is important to him so he will at least try to pitch 4 more years ( 18 wins per for 3 years leaves him shy by 2). By that logic I bet he wants a 4 year deal. At this point some team will give him what he wants unless it's completely out of whack. I think his calf injury reminded him how important schedule and work load management is. The lesson he learned throughout this season. I also think he will move on but prefers to stay where he is if the Astros give him the chance. They will give him a chance to win every time he pitches, have the depth to not over use him, and have a system that is proven to work and keep him/get him healthy. I think if the Astros offer him 3 years $105M w/ a 4th year player option at $15M and a $5M buy out he would accept it. It's a slight discount over what Scherzer makes but guarantees him $110M over 3 years and a 4th year to get to 300 if he suddenly shows his age and can't get an equivalent deal in year 4. For CBT purposes the option year gives it an AAV of $30M which helps keep the budget in line.
You're right, BUT.. I do like the idea of their organization telling all their players before game 4: 'Not only are you down 0-3 to Houston, but the Yankees couldn't even hang ON to a 3-0 lead against Boston.' Thanks guys, good talk.
