At what point is it ok to consider KPJs numbers as relevant to judging his game? Year 5? Year 6? According to some, essentially his first 3 years in the league don’t really count because he changed positions in year 3 and had crappy teammates. Weird, but ok. We’re early on into year 4 of his career and I’m just wondering when that magical day will be that we can look at his numbers and draw some concerns/conclusions without the worry of excuses from his defenders? How many years do we have to see his TS% at 53% before we are allowed to be concerned that a role as a high volume, on ball scorer might not be in a teams best interests? There was a strong push by the pro KPJ crowd that we should consider the small sample of the last 10 or so games of last season as legitimate evidence that he had proven to be a more than efficient scorer. Seems like now some of those same people have a problem with small samples. So we’re either considering small samples or we aren’t in this discussion. Though as far as my efficiency concern goes, there’s nothing small about the sample. It’s his entire career thus far. Still plenty of time to improve, but there’s been more than enough sample of games played for legit concerns to be had.
Of course you can acknowledge the numbers so long as you consider ALL the numbers, such as the fact that shooting over .5 from 3, averaging almost 20 ppg with a healthy number of rebounds and assists, etc. The big KPJ critics seem to only focus on one or two numbers.
TS% takes into account your 3 point shooting. His shooting in other areas has been so poor that his overall scoring efficiency is below league average. High volume scoring on low efficiency is not something to consider a positive. (Westbrook) Rebounds for a guard. Nice, not entirely important, but sure a positive. A certain amount of assists when being a high ball dominant player is somewhat of a baseline expectation.
Drawing conclusions after 3 games is not smart is all Im trying to tell you. KPJ wont be missing point blank shots all year. If his teammates can demonstrate that they can be relied upon to make wide open shots he will probably find them sooner in the play. There is a sht ton of context being conveniently ignored, but it doesnt really matter because ITS BEEN THREE FREAKING GAMES!!! LOL. After game 1 the vibe was "okay I see he's been working yada yada yada" ... after game 3 its "this guy sucks he is doing the same crap as always and will never get any better" ... YOu dont see the hilarious irony flip flopping within a few days? Same with Sengun one game he’s Hakeem the next he’s Darko! It’s amusing for me so by all means you guys keep splitting atoms the first week of the season I would t have it any other way!
This is the typical KPJ critic’s response: downplay his positive contributions and harp on the shortcoming. The fact is KPJ is 22 and may have 20 and 6 with 6 boards. He may even average close to a couple steals a game as a bonus. Yes, he needs to improve his TS% and shot selection, but those numbers are impressive for his age. Dame averaged similar numbers at 22. Harden didn’t blow up until 23. It’s just too early to draw any overarching conclusions.
Don’t think it is a conclusion, rather an expectation to see a move in the right direction, an increase in efficiency, better shot selection, some basic court vision like looking for the open man when you drive to the basket.
Hmm, no. Harden, by his third year ascended to basically god tier in efficiency, taking significant leaps each year. Porter has been flat. Counting stats are not a valuable player measure. Now I am a firm believer that players are typically who they are by the end of their third year. Porter has time, but unless he takes a huge leap this year, he is likely just not going to be all that great of a player.
Ah yes, the "efficiency is everything" crowd. 53% for KPJ is trash TS and the be all and end all, nevermind that Kobe won championships hovering between 54-56%. And uber efficient James Harden, how many rings did he get again? Loads right, because efficiency is all that matters? Let's go further, how about Jordan in his final championship year with 53% ts? Almost makes you think these efficiency addicts don't know what they're talking about...
If you're talking about the eye test, I see major improvements in those areas stemming from the end of last season. The problem is (1) he's been cold from 2, which has obviously suppressed his TS%, and (2) guys like Bari have been ice cold from 3. I think KPJ, soon, will have an efficient 30 - 40 point game and quiet a lot of that criticism on the first point. The latter is not as much in his control. I think, as a board, we are dancing around the fact that Bari has one of the worst TS% percentages in the league (.41). I, personally, believe Bari will start warming up along with others, boosting KPJ's assists number to 7+. We'll see, I could be wrong. But it's too early to say either way.
They don't......people who use stats only are missing a large chunk of what makes the game and players work, they don't understand that the stats themselves are flawed, or that the INPUT for those stats are flawed, thus causing a flawed outcome. Stats are a nice tool to help make decisions but if that is how you make all your decisions, you miss more than 60% of the picture and you will lose - basketball is not baseball. DD
That suggests that the "criticism" is based on reality and that those types of people would be open to abandoning their foolish narratives when proven wrong. Those are not safe assumptions to be made. KPJ could score 60 on 12 shot attempts while picking up 30 assists and those types would still carry on just the same.
And I have no problem acknowledging that it’s very likely his 2P% should/will improve, but at the same time we have to realistically acknowledge that there is zero chance that shooting 53% from 3 will continue. @aelliott already broke down the numbers on how his teammates shooting has been pretty negligible in effecting his assist numbers.
On your latter point, I'm not talking about statistics. That's what's wrong with just looking at the numbers. If you are driving to the basket, and you see a teammate open who has been ice cold from 3, are you going to trust him? These are people we're talking about. This idea that KPJ should defer to players who aren't hitting shots for "development" purposes just isn't realistic. Not to mention how Bari heating up would open up the lanes.
The problem there is that league wide efficiency has done nothing but increase over the years. Kobe’s 54-56% TS was above league average at the time.
I am not sure his 2pt % will improve, he still SHIES away from contact on his drives when he needs to explode through contact, Jalen is doing a much better job of this ATM - that will help KPJ a lot as the fouls he draws and the FTs he makes will help his TS% go way up. He contorts his body away from contact, it is a bad habit.....now last game he got through a guy and scored and it was called an offensive foul....it was a bad call and we need more of that..... Anyway, KPJ is a work in progress, we have NO ONE ELSE to fill that role right now so b****ing about it without any solution is a waste of time. DD
Welp… He’s a career 48% from 2. Only 33.3% so far this season. It’s going to improve. EFG% doesn’t count free throws, strictly shots from the field. TS% counts all shots and free throws. Im not suggesting we have better options right now, I’m suggesting that he isn’t exactly excelling in his current role and when decisions have to be made in the future the results we have so far should be considered.
It will definitely improve - he's 2-13 on layups this year which is over 1/3 of his attempts from 2. if he just reverts back to the mean he's about a 50% finisher from there.
What is excelling mean? Who on our team is excelling currently? We are 0-3.......no one is excelling - especially when you consider defense. DD