https://www.businessinsider.com/mik...t-oped-evan-mcmullin-third-person-2022-10?amp GOP Sen. Mike Lee appeared to write an op-ed in the third person endorsing himself amid an unexpectedly tough re-election race
I’m not in Texas so I don’t see Beto Ads. I haven’t seen Democrats running on Jan 6.. most of the ones I see deal with abortion.
There was a lot of applause mixed in there too when McMullen brought that up. McMullen isn’t wrong though. Pushing fake electors goes against the Constitution.
Off topic, but does anyone have there minds changed by the useless campaign ads that were deluged in these days? I have tuned them out just like I do every other commercial or ad, it just seems like a huge waste of money but hey, they must do it for a reason but its all poo flinging these days.....the one ad I hadn't seen in awhile was by Paxton and was just a complete sham and so full of lies it would make trump proud. I wish they would come up with a bill that said you cant do an ad if its not 100% truthful, but that will never pass
Campaign ads are largely for low interest voters. They generally don't work on people who follow politics very closely.
Some real warning signs for the Democrats as the current generic ballot has swung to Republicans by 2.2%. In 2014 at this time it was only 1.4% but it was a late breaking trend and Republicans did very well then. The real advantage for Republicans appears to be inflation particularly rising gas prices. It does appear like it still is "The Economy stupid" as Democrats did better when gas prices were dropping late summer and September. Also GA Senate appears headed to a runoff.
But, you see, they agree with the lies because they further their ends as statists. The constitution only means what you want it to mean.
Some other concerning factors for Democrats is that the Sienna Times polls showed that support among suburban women has flipped from for Democrats in September to for Republicans in October. Crime appears to be a major issue that is causing that change. This is where advertizing might be working as I've been seeing a lot of ads paid for by the Republican national campaigns pushing alarmist ads. Also "Defund the Police" is the gift that keeps on giving. Even though most Democrats have quit talking about it and Biden even specifically said that we need more funding for police. That still gets brought up frequently.
Looks like Saudi Arabia now has great power into who gets elected in the US. Surprising that a lot of people don't question their motives.
The Sienna poll was bad for Dems but Kornacki using the RCP average is also pretty dishonest. They are doing some wonky "unskewing" of polls. And its also dishonest to even attempt to draw trends from the subsamples. We're talking about samples of less than a few hundred people with 20+ point margins of error. But the media is acting like that poll somehow proves that there's been a 30 point shift among women or a huge shift among black voters. All of that is dishonest. The only thing we should talk about is the fact that the topline number looked good for Republicans and we should be averaging those numbers with other generic ballot polls. But interpreting subsamples or engaging in RCP style unskewing is just misleading and dishonest. Dems have reasons to worry but the media is not being fair or objective in its analysis of polling. Lastly we're now finally getting some early vote. It'll be telling to see how early voting stats look in Nevada and Georgia. You can almost predict the Nevada election by the partisan composition of Clark County early vote. The racial composition of the Georgia Early vote (along with the size of the early vote) will give us a similar forecast (but with the possibility of a runoff, its not nearly as conclusive).
As you note even if the specifics are questionable the topline number isn't looking good for Democrats. The party that controls the presidency usually pays a price in the midterms and the party in charge whether fairly or not get's blamed for the economy. Those factors are appearing to be more at play this election even with other factors that are hampering the Republicans. The question is whether the Democrats can address this in the time remaining before the election.
Its still only one poll. There are other generic ballot polls that have a tied or slightly Democratic leaning environment. Both the Yougov and Morning Consult tracking polls haven't really budged all that much. Either way, if I were Democrats I'd be thrilled with an R+3 result. It's possible to hold the Senate in that environment.
The crime aspect could be addressed by pointing out that Republicans almost unanimously voted against the American Rescue Plan Act of 2021 (ARP), which helped keep law enforcement budgets afloat during the economic downturn caused by COVID (and exacerbated by GOP incompetence). Honestly, though, I think Democrat voters have to start confronting their friends,family and colleagues who show any inclination to vote GOP. I'm not saying attack them and call them horrible racists, but they need to articulate the multiple reasons why voting Republican would make everything worse. Too often, we avoid talking politics in our personal lives and rely on politicians to make the case, but who better to make the case on an individual level than those who know a particular individual best?
