2022-23 Houston Rockets -- will they be over/under 24.5 wins?

This is bs. Statistical projections either don’t factor in improvement from youth, or they factor it in purely subjectively. The Rockets improved win total is solely relying on internal improvement so 538 has no predictive value here.

Green was rated by Raptor as one of the worst players in the league last year, this is not subjective, he was just that bad. However, for their 2023 projections they are either being lazy and using the same value for Green, or they are not projecting him to improve as much as we hope. Same goes for Sengun and kpj, three of our projected best players. No idea what value they are using for Jabari and Tari, but whatever it is it’s going to be a guess, because there is no nba data yet for either.

 

For reference last season 538 projected us for a 19-63 record with a -8.8 point differential. We ended the season 20-62 with a -8.5 point differential.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-nba-predictions/

Clearly these clowns don’t know what they are talking about.

 

Last year there were no 2nd year players projected to improve. And the rookies we got did not help winning (normal for rookies).

i mean I’ll take the over on 19 wins from these geniuses for whatever amount of money whoever wants…

 

The projections are likely looking at average yearly stats. This is usually the best way to go. Jalen Green's average performance still sucked despite having a very good chunk of the season as being a good player. Also, the Rockets were tanking last year, and creative lineups with backups likely making backup players look even worse than they are.

I'm a little surprised the prediction is that low, but really only by few games. There is huge variance in how the Rockets could play. I'm expecting the Rockets to be around a league average team when Green is on the floor. When he's not, it is likely going to be ugly. I was for staggering Green and Porter last year, but Porter's improved shot has helped Green a lot. I still think developing Green is the top priority for the team which is going to cause the bench to play without him and Porter a lot.

 

Those are RAPTOR-based projections

 

It's a bit of a wildcard with 538. For example, beginning of the season, they had Boston at 49 wins (good for 5th seed). When Boston had their win streak, their formula corrected itself and projected Boston with the highest chance of making the finals.

With Golden State, they significantly underrated them both before the season started, and during the playoffs (they put them at a 6-7% chance of making the finals).

I guess I would wait until tomorrow to make a judgment, but there is a bit of an old research done by 82 games that investigated whether there are correlations between pre-season performance and regular season performance. Based on this research, what they actually found was that there is a correlation between strong pre-season performance and improved regular season performance if the team struggled the year before, with an average improvement of 19 wins.

Hard to say if it means anything since ultimately they took a 5 year sample size and the sample used was a decade ago, and also pre-season games are shorter now. However, what is interesting is that at the time that the article was written (2006-2007 pre-season), 3 teams fell under their criteria of "teams that struggled a season prior but is performing decently well in pre-season now". All 3 teams actually went on to improve on their record (Raptors improved from 27 to 47, Knicks from 23 to 33 and Atlanta from 26 to 30), so there might be some merits to this article.

 

Raptor tells you how good a player is, it doesn’t tell you how good a player will be. Last year Green had one of the worst raptor ratings in the league, if they used that in their 2023 win totals then no wonder they have us at 19. Our hope is that Green has gotten much much better.

 

Over/under win predictions
Memphis Grizzlies — 48.5 wins. Over.

Dallas Mavericks — 48.5 wins. Over.

New Orleans Pelicans — 45.5 wins. Under.

Houston Rockets — 23.5 wins. Over.

San Antonio Spurs — 22.5 wins. Under.

https://www.sportingnews.com/us/nba...williamson-ja-morant/huxivmusr4imolxyzxuqjpcy

 

It’s a night a day difference between what we’ve seen from this team during this preseason compared to last preseason. They didn’t have a clue what they were doing last preseason (and during the season for that matter). This preseason, they look like a real basketball team that knows what they’re doing.

I see a vast improvement from this group. They will be well over 20 wins. I think they’ll be around 30.

I was expecting them to be just as bad this season as last season, but from what I’ve seen I’m confident they’ve taken a step forward.

 

Looks like a solid over bet right now

 

Wish me luck. Did over 23.5 in vegas. Seems like easy money.

 

The Rockets are going to win every time they play a tanking team. That alone will get us 25 wins.

 

I also got over 23.5. Way too much talent and way too many tanking teams.

Also I like the fact that the talent is well distributed, we do not have a superstar whose injury will make the team very weak suddenly

 

https://theathletic.com/3693443/2022/10/18/nba-record-predictions-season/

Houston Rockets

Hollinger’s prediction: 22-60, 14th in West

If the Rockets finish with 22 wins this season — just a two-win improvement from the previous year — sound the alarm bells. Vegas has their line at 23.5 games right now, and I think there’s a realistic path to them winning 25. But their start, which includes 10 of 13 games on the road, is brutal. If Jabari Smith Jr. and Eric Gordon are able to improve Houston’s 30th-ranked defense from last season, getting to 25 is possible. But much will depend on the shoulders of Jalen Green and Kevin Porter Jr. and their development. – Kelly Iko

 

27 wins.

 

Heres how I see it. If they get in as a play in team or the 8th seed, I would consider that a successful season and most likely we are ahead of schedule. If not we go back to the lottery and we get to add more young talent to the team. I would rather be in the Rockets situation then a lot of other teams like the Knicks, Bulls, etc.

 

We're going to win enough and be exciting enough that we'll get some additional non-weekend national TV slots next year.

 

I took the over today in Vegas. My only concern is the center position. If Sengun is serviceable at all, and they can stay healthy, this group should win 25 games.

 

Josh Christopher.

 

Not sure what the win total will be but I am guessing bottom 3-6th place in the NBA

I also believe the future is very bright for the Rockets with this core + upcoming draft