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Carlos Correa to the Twins - 3 Years, $105 Million

Discussion in 'Houston Astros' started by TheresTheDagger, Mar 19, 2022.

  1. Bregatron

    Bregatron Member

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    Would that be Dave, Ricky or Harry?

    Also, Mancini doesn't have a player option. It's a mutual option. Doesn't mean both sides don't opt-in, just saying both sides have to agree, not just Mancini.
     
  2. Rock Block

    Rock Block Sorta here sometimes
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    Hensley I assume
     
  3. Marshall Bryant

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    Hensley. I seem to have a mental block and want to call him Henderson.
     
  4. conquistador#11

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    When you're out of the playoffs what else is there to do?
     
  5. xcrunner51

    xcrunner51 Member

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    It makes very little sense to put a player like Hensley at 1B full-time. 1B is for bat-first guys, usually with high power upside. Hensley is the opposite of that. You'd be wasting his biggest trait (positional versatility) and putting huge pressure on his bat.

    I think he'll be on the team next year, just in an utility role of some sort.
     
    everyday eddie and Rock Block like this.
  6. Marshall Bryant

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    So far I've liked his plate discipline as much as his positional versatility. If we can't get the big bat, then I really don't mind trying him at 1B as a cross between Brantley and 2021 Yuli. Almost anyone would be an upgrade over 2022 Yuli. He was one of 4 holes in the line-up. 1B, CF, C and DH/LF (whichever one is not played by Yordan.)

    I disagree with 1b being a bat 1st guy. At least not a bat only guy. I am spoiled with Bagwell and Yuli with their normal defense.

    I'm quite sure some are tiring of me promoting players trained as SS or 3B as superior choices for a 1B than a lumbering Bat Only DH wannabee.
     
    #1486 Marshall Bryant, Oct 9, 2022
    Last edited: Oct 9, 2022
  7. IdStrosfan

    IdStrosfan Member

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    For me anyway, it's not that I'm tiring of you suggesting putting SS or 3B players at 1B.

    It's you suggesting things that have zero chance of happening and make no sense.

    Putting Pena or Bregman at 1B has about the same chance of happening as putting Framber in the bullpen so he can pitch more than once every 5 days. And makes about as much sense.
     
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  8. Marshall Bryant

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    Those were speculative with the unlikely return of Correa or the addition of a 3B bat. That would be the only moves to get all the IF in. If we acquire a 1B like Jose Abreu, then problem solved by just moving him to 1B. Hensley is an option if they acquire no one including Mancini returning with his mutual option. The choices would be Hensley or Yanier Diaz most likely.
     
  9. IdStrosfan

    IdStrosfan Member

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    Mancini is not taking his mutual option. He will get a multiyear deal as a free agent.

    Even if it ends up being 3 yrs $24 Mil he would prefer that to 1 yr $10 M. And it will likely be more than that.

    The team really needs to get a veteran bat for 1B and/or OF.

    Contending teams rarely have more than 1 or 2 unproven/rookie starters.

    As the 2023 roster looks now:

    Korey Lee is 1 of 2 catchers

    Yanier Diaz and J.J. Matijevic compete for 1B

    David Hensley replaces Aledmys Diaz

    Jake Meyers and Pedro Leon compete for CF.
     
  10. BlindHog

    BlindHog Member

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    Mancini has been virtually useless since coming to Houston. After demonstrating a negative WAR value I doubt the Astros have any interest in bringing him back at 10 million for any amount of time.
     
  11. IdStrosfan

    IdStrosfan Member

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    I guarantee you the Astros will jump to accept their half of the mutual option.

    He is a 30 year old MLB player who has averaged 2.0 WAR per 162 games in his career and the only season he has ever had With an OPS+ under league average ( 100) was 2018 when it was 95.

    Not to mention, by all accounts, he is a person of exceptional character and great teammate who is beloved by the fans in Baltimore.

    He had 2 months here adjusting to a complete new organization while sitting the bench often the first 6 weeks after being an everyday player his entire career.

    And he hit into terrible luck, if I can believe my eyes.

    He is worth a 1 yr $10M contract without question.

    In fact, Spotrac.com says his market value is $18.1M per season in a 5 yr $90.589M contract.

    I think it's closer to 3 yr/$45 or 4yr/$52.
     
  12. Marshall Bryant

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    Other than Henley in the 1B mix, I agree with your assessment. And like it or not, Dubon is probably
    in the mix to replace A Diaz.
     
  13. jayfree

    jayfree Member

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    I agree. Thanks to the down year, the Astros could resign him for much cheaper. He will hit again.
     
  14. Nick

    Nick Member

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    What was Mancini's BABIP the last month? Seems like he was pretty unlucky.
     
  15. xcrunner51

    xcrunner51 Member

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    Spotrac is smoking something on Mancini's projection. His list of comparables used to make the projection is pretty unreasonable: https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/houston-astros/trey-mancini-21070/market-value/

    Hosmer is probably his most reasonable comparison and Hosmer had his peak season before signing that trainwreck of a FA contract.

    Mancini is coming off TWO sub 1.0 fWAR seasons. I just don't see how he gets paid more than Brantley's AAV of $16m. I agree your projections seem much more reasonable.
     
  16. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    Mancini’s value depends on how you think his health has affected him and will affect him. Prior to his cancer diagnosis he put up 3 seasons that painted him as an excellent hitter, worth ~2 wins per season. In the 2 seasons since, he been a roughly average bat worth <1 win per season. If you think he is still on a recovery trajectory then he might be worth $14M/yr over 3-4 years, especially if you put a premium on clubhouse presence. If teams are down on him I could see him taking something like $20M/2yrs.

    Based on the Orioles GM comments and how well liked he was, I could see them overpaying him a bit, with something like the above suggested amount of $52M/4yrs, maybe even with a vesting 5th year player option.

    i don’t think Mancini was Houston’s top trade target for a bat and although I think they do like him I don’t expect them to make a strong effort to sign him; if they do go for a 2nd tier bat I would expect them to make a run at Brantley before Mancini. If they sign Verlander money could be extremely tight.
     
  17. IdStrosfan

    IdStrosfan Member

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    I just did a quick tally.

    Based on 0.75M per pre arb player
    $1.5M for Garcia because he is higher paid for some reason.
    MLBtrade rumors arb estimates.

    Payroll is a hair over $166M

    That leaves $66M for all FA, extensions, and trades that add to payroll before luxury tax hits.
     
  18. Wulaw Horn

    Wulaw Horn Member

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    8.5 per WAR on the FA market. He was worth 45M and got paid 35M on a 1 year deal. That’s absolutely fine value for a FA. It’s not his fault the rest of the team fell apart and sucked.
     
  19. rocketsjudoka

    rocketsjudoka Member

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    Recent reports out of Twinsland are they Correa likes the Locker room and really likes Baldelli. More important his wife likes the other team wives.

    Not sure if this just Twins’ rubes and management trying to sell hope.
     
    Wulaw Horn likes this.
  20. Buck Turgidson

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    Did you misspell "rubs" for "rubes"?
     

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