I’m going to check out the whole debate because I’m curious what Vance’s response was that. Ryan is right but for the current Republican Party political courage is punished and not rewarded.
Tim Ryan and Mandela Barnes both destroyed their opps in their debates…next up is Warnock vs Walker this Friday speak on your record and beliefs while exposing the right wing hypocrisy and extreme positions…it’s an easy playbook
Unfortunately destroying their opponents might not be enough. Vance has managed to take a narrow lead in OH, Johnson is holding a narrow lead in WI and Walker had his best fundraising weekend AFTER the stuff came out about him paying for an abortion. Even though GA went Blue in 2020 it's still a redder shade of purple and OH has been reliably red the last couple of elections. WI is a tossup for both Senate and Gov.
On what we're seeing today a 50-50 Senate again is looking more likely. Democrats likely hold GA, AZ, and NH. Republicans hold WI, OH and FL. Democrats pick up PA and Republicans pickup NV. The generic ballot is very slightly favoring Republicans overall and they still look on course to win the House but not with a massive majority. Things are so close though that even minor changes might have big effects.
we’ll see…there’s been too many races where Dems overperformed or outright won when not projected to post-Dobbs coupled with the data regarding women and young people registering to vote
The only caveat is that every aggregator is doing some sort of adjustment to account for some sort of perceived bias which is funny because likely voter screens are intended to do that already. For example, Democrats have led almost every generic ballot poll in October but Kornacki's board is turning this into a Republican lead. I have no issue with the concept of adjusting polls but most aggregators aren't transparent about what they're doing. So in turn it just breeds confusion and introduces more bias into a process that is intended to neutralize bias. I think everyone is struggling to reconcile polling failures in 2016-2020 but the lack of transparency around the adjustments doesn't give me much confidence that anyone is doing anything other than making up numbers.
Right now, my hope is that the post-Dobbs special election over-performance of Dems holds and is enough to push WI, OH, and GA to the finish line. Johnson is a disaster in the Senate and Vance/Walker are morons.
Ohio is so reliably red at this point that the Democrats barely bothered to give money to Tim Ryan at first. Also, debates matter so little these days. Ryan is going to come agonizingly close and then lose. PA is going to be closer than people think and Oz may eek that out. Florida would be a stunner if the Dems are within 4 points on the final ballot. GA will be tight and AZ is on a razor's edge. Whole thing is in play.
2 minutes in and I don't have to watch any further. The tabulating machines are not connected to wifi. You guys will believe anything. Absolute morons speculating about technology they don't understand.
PA and GA I think are much more likely for the Dems than OH. If I’m putting money on races I put it on those. The one scenario that could really heart the Dems is GA goes to a run off the economy really tanks next month to inflation and railroad strike. I don’t think Demmings or Crist can win FL. Barnes still has a good chance in WI but things are trending for Johnson. NC could still be a sleeper pickup for the Dems.
I'm starting to get the feeling that Democrats are relying too much on abortion as an issue. Most of the ads I'm seeing especially the ones by the DCCC and national groups appear to solely focus on the abortion. That is a huge motivating issue but I think from the Democrat side their might be diminishing returns on it when that is the only message pushed. I think they should be pushing issues like infrastructure, insulin prices and bringing back manufacturing to the US in things like the CHIPS act. As it is right now I feel like they are cediing the ground on other issues to Republicans.
Agreed, I see both sides touting the "extreme" policies of the other party but I only hear about abortion from the dems, while the gop is touting the same line....border, crime and extremism on how "X" will allow you to abort right up to the baby being born, which is just a flat out lie in reality.
