The incredible transformation of Justin Brooks Verlander

It is a ridiculous number but he's going to get it. "Low 30s at best"? Now that's "lala land".

 

Agree. Anyone who thinks JV won't get $35M+ AAV is out of touch and not paying attention.

 

Wasn't Koufax the one who retired at 30?

Yep. And he made 1/3rd less in his entire career than the new MLB minimum salary.

 

Salaries today seem to relate more to EGO than value. And I'm not talking about the players.

The modern equivalent of the Roman Circus has taken on the form of athletic competition.

But that said, I thought I had already posted this, but apparently not here. If JV wants another 2 year deal, I think he wants to exceed Cole's 36M AAV. I think Sherzers $43 is too far outside of the market to use. This is why I thought I said somewhere that the market appears to have risen to the upper 30s for elite pitching. I also think he will work with Crane and is not anxious to leave for a few dollars more. (Man I just had a flashback to Clint Eastwood).

I would still prefer some combination of options, both player and club, which keeps him here to retirement at a price near his value. The format would include a player option with some minimum number of starts, probably less than the 130 of his present option with the move toward the 6 starter rotation at the low end and club options to guarantee his return at the higher end. A right of first refusal would work, but would be cumbersome with the deadline approach in baseball.

 

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I was very proud of the Astros for keeping a watchful eye on Verlander this year and the innings he pitched, it seems on two occasions he was pulled while he was in a midst of a no-hitter.

No hitters are cool, but keeping your top Ace in tip top shape is better, when the goal is a championship.

I do hope that Verlander and the Astros can come to terms for next year, but I’m thinking the Astros don’t have a chance. I t think that Verlander is going to be offered the highest annual contract for the next 3 years from a team in desperate need of a true ace. Could a team offer him a 3 years 150 million type of a contract? And I would not blame Verlander negatively if he did take a mammoth contract offer.

But the fun thing is the Astros have Verlander’s services for this postseason run, are in the midst of a fantastic season, and Verlander is their undisputed ace. The Team that has an overall ERA of 2.9; which is amazing. Verlander’s 1.75 ERA’s is stuff of video games, and here we get it from our 39 year old ace.

 

My guess for now is that Verlander will be given a 3 year contract with the highest average annual salary in MLB history. Something like $140M/3yrs. He may even get incentives and a lower value value player option for a 4th year. He is one of the best pitchers in history coming off one of his best seasons and won’t require a long contract. Every contender in the league will be putting together their most competitive offer. Scherzer’s deal is his absolute floor.

 

Totally agree, and the Astros should be meeting that number. Can't see why you wouldn't run this starting rotation back given its success. Verlander benefits from load management (fewer innings, skipping turns) due to the depth of the rotation and great bullpen, makes too much sense.

 

There's no way Crane won't get very competitive to keep JV. Who amongst us thought JV was staying for this year after last season's absence, the alleged "discontent" w him in the clubhouse for not being around, post TJ, etc.? No one, that's who.

It's obvious he and Crane have a strong relationship and that he likes pitching here. Count me as one who thinks he'll be back.

 

Raises hand sheepishly. But I didn't like the Player option without a Team option. Which is NOT a mutual option by the way. The prices for the Player option should be significantly lower than the Team Option. Player must choose first, then the team based on his choice. If both think the player's value is between the two, then negotiate a new contract and find out if there is a meeting of the minds.

 

While I would love to have Verlander back and would be willing to pony up a lot to make it happen, at certain point you have to be pragmatic about cost benefit ratio. Is the regular season falloff from Verlander to Urquidy, Brown or Garcia enough to justify spending almost 50 million dollars (almost a quarter of your payroll) on him for his age 40-42 seasons. This isn't the NBA where you move heaven and earth for one of the elites because of the postseason, which is prone to extreme randomness in baseball. We know for sure we have some glaring offensive holes that could see major improvements with that amount of money.

Again I'm not saying don't resign him, just that if they don't it could be very defensible and not just "cheaping" out.

 

This is similar to the swell-opts. Players and teams are free to negotiate them. Options swing the value of a deal a lot in my opinion.

 

Seems convoluted and I can't remember anyone agreeing to such a contract.

From Verlanders POV, if he doesn't want to exercise a player option he probably wants the freedom to negotiate with all other teams again. I don't see why he'd agree to that 2 stage option process. Seems like a contrived way to lock in control without just giving him guaranteed years/money.

 

Thanks for the unfamiliar terminology. I was very aware of the terms while I was in the business, but I've been away from it for a while.

 

If you only look at it from ONE point of view, then few contracts will be done. Contracts are about mutual benefit. The Player wants protection from a sub par season giving him an extra year to make a come back. The Team Option protects the team from losing a player who had a good season. Mutual benefit. But that's why the options will not be close in value. One is based on a sub par year and one is based on a good year.

 

It's not as if I didn't understand the premise. I get why you as a fan would want that.

My point was that a player in JV's shoes can pretty much dictate contract terms however he sees fit and there's not really a good reason for him to agree to a contract like that. He would just take the guaranteed money contract.

Scherzer got all his money guaranteed; there's no reason for Verlander coming off a Cy Young season to price in under-performance/injury mitigation for the team that signs him.

 

Britton had something similar though the reverse. After year 2, team could add a 4th year team option. If team didn't add 4th year, player could opt out immediately.

I'm pretty sure I've seen contracts that if a player opts out, team has option to add years back but at a higher rate.

Scott Boras is almost always the agent in these convoluted deals.

Options are doable, but players have to give up something for a player option and teams typically pay more upfront for a team option.