Right now I don't think anyone wants to play St. Louis or Toronto. But then you certainly aren't excited to play Atlanta or the Dodgers. Hell even the Guardians are going into the playoffs as the hottest team in baseball (won 20 of their last 23). So to your point, anybody can realistically win this thing.
I agree that Garcia needs to be in the bullpen But everyone got killed as a starter in the playoffs last year ( except Lance who got injured before the ALCS) He pitched 5 2/3 shutout 1 hit innings in the clinching game of the ALCS. Then he was done. He " emptied the tank" after pitching 55+ more innings than he ever had before and coming off a 12 inning season in 2020. Even Framber gave up 17 ER in less than 22 innings. Everyone talks about how great Urquidy is in the playoffs but even he gave up 7 ER in 7 2/3 IP. The entire staff was gassed. They pitched so much more than 2020 and lost JV before the season, Lance to injury in ALDS, and Grienke lost his stamina due to illness shortly before the playoffs. 2022 is WAY different. That said, I think Garcia has earned the 5th starter spot if one is required in the ALCS. JV, Framber, Lance, and Javier are just the best 4 starters for the ALDS.
STARTERS ERA+ 1 BROWN, Hunter 394 2 STANEK, Ryne 331 3 VERLANDER, Justin 214 4 ABREU, Bryan 197 5 McCULLERS Jr., Lance 164 6 MONTERO, Rafael 162 7 JAVIER, Cristian 152 8 VALDEZ, Framber 134 9 PRESSLY, Ryan 128 10 SMITH, Will 114 11 MATON, Phil 107 12 GARCIA, Luis 104 NERIS, Hëctor 103 URQUIDY, Josē 99 If ERA+ is the criteria and we carry 12 pitchers in the ALDS... Neris and Urquidy miss the short series.
After the last 2 starts Javier has passed him, now with a better season. He has been that close all along where 2 games have swung the season stats. So JV, Javier, McCullers and Framber are the best. Not that I expect it to happen for legitimate reasons. I'm just snickering at a crazy thought of having Hunter start game 3 and pulling him after 3 innings for Framber as a completely different style of pitcher. Sort of like my unfulfilled hope of the JR/Neikro/Ryan rotation way back when.
