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To extend KPJ or not?

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by Lachard Binkley, Jul 29, 2022.

  1. flamingdts

    flamingdts Member

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    I know you are generally very allergic to stats and facts, but let's put this down as a placeholder in case you come around and spout the same nonsense again in the future.

    Jalen Green's first 33 games out of 67

    14/3/2 on 2.4 TOs a game, averaging TS 49.66%.

    Jalen Green's last 34 games out of 67

    20/4/3 on 1.7 TOs a game, averaging TS 58.92%.

    KPJ's first 30 games out of 61

    13/4/6 on 3.7 TOs a game, averaging TS 49.05%

    KPJ's last 31 games out of 61

    18/4/7 on 2.6 TOs a game, averaging TS 56.73%

    Please do explain how in the first half of the season, KPJ's 13/4/6 on 4 turnovers a game, on TS 49%, is "doing the heavy lifting for Green"?
     
  2. chenjy9

    chenjy9 Numbers Don't Lie
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    You must be super young to think I’m being emotional. I’m just having a great time laughing at your responses. It’s a hoot!
     
  3. maj21

    maj21 Member

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    Super young? I’m actually in my 30s. You care so much that you typed like 200 words. It’s not that serious lol
     
  4. Bobbythegreat

    Bobbythegreat Member
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    Explain to me how Green managed to be such a large negative to the Rockets net rating when on the court if he was as good as you want to pretend..... and how KPJ was such a positive to the Rockets net rating when on the court if he was a bad as you want to pretend.


    I'll wait.
     
  5. DaDakota

    DaDakota Balance wins
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    I am more impressed that they basically played great together in the last 30 games....

    If we get:

    Green at 20/4/3 on 58%TS & Porter at 18/4/7 on 56.7% TS

    That is great production.....for a 2nd year scoring guard and a guy playing point for the 2nd year......

    DD
     
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  6. chenjy9

    chenjy9 Numbers Don't Lie
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    This will probably blow your mind, but 200 words is nothing. Like is said, this is entertainment for me. I find the **** you keep coming back with hilarious.
     
  7. flamingdts

    flamingdts Member

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    You have very poor reading comprehension. No one is saying Green had an amazing first half.
    1. KPJ's +/- before February 1st (33 games) was -8. It just so happens that Green (35 games) was even worse -17.9. This can be attributed to a lot of factors (like Green just being bad, and Theis being on the court, since he had the 2nd worse +/- of -16.9). Just because Green was worse than KPJ, doesn't make KPJ a "positive". It just means KPJ had a less bad +/-.
    2. Post February 1st, Green had the highest +/- on the team of -4.7 (32 games).
     
  8. jordnnnn

    jordnnnn Member

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    Net Ratings

    Pre All Star
    Green : -17.3
    KPJ: -7.3

    Post All Star
    Green : -1.7
    KPJ : -5.8

    Last 15
    Green : +0.3
    KPJ : -5.1
     
  9. Bobbythegreat

    Bobbythegreat Member
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    You're making the mistake of talking box score +/- when I was talking about team net rating when the players were on the court. They aren't the same thing.

    KPJ's +/- was always a positive and ended up a decent +4.0

    To Jalen Green's credit, he managed to go from a -20 in the middle of the season to finish "only" -6.7....still the worst of any player still on the team, but given the hole he put himself in by playing like the worst player in the league for so long, the improvement was highly impressive to see. Now you can ignore this and try to point to PPG stats, but the fact is the Rockets were a better team when Jalen Green wasn't in the game for the vast majority of last season. They were always a better team when KPJ was on the court. It's just a verifiable fact.

    Now of course if you were a Rockets fan, you'd simply be thrilled about how well the two of them played at the end of the season once Green finally started to produce on offense....instead, here you are trying to re-write history and prop one up at the expense of the one who ran the point for him and created so many easy opportunities for him.....who drew the top defensive players from the other team away from him, who took the more difficult defensive assignments to help hide him on that side of the ball....It's just weird, I'm pretty sure Jalen Green doesn't share your opinion of his friend KPJ.
     
  10. flamingdts

    flamingdts Member

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    What are you talking about?

    KPJ does not have a net rating of +4. Where did you even get those numbers from?

    [​IMG]



    The players with the worse rating, for the entire season can be seen below. He is technically the "worse of any player still on this team", but he is not any different than any of the rookies, all of whom are expected to be unproductive.

    [​IMG]

    In Jalen Green's last 34 games, he clearly had the highest net rating on the team. To say the team was better when he wasn't on the court "for the vast majority" of the season is completely and factually incorrect.

    [​IMG]


    For reference, in the last 15 games. Green was straight up a net positive.
    [​IMG]
     
  11. Bobbythegreat

    Bobbythegreat Member
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    SMH, okay let's start over, I didn't think I'd have to spell this out for you but I will.

    The numbers I was citing were the team net rating when the players were on the court compared to when they were off the court.

    For the season the team's net rating was 4 points better with KPJ on the court compared to when he was off the court.

    The team's net rating was 6.7 points worse with him on the court compared to when he was off the court... down from 20 at mid season when he tanked both the offense and defense every time he was on the court.

    The goal of this metric is to show the impact an individual player is making to the team.

    It shows Green was an absolute abomination for about half the season before playing extremely well and almost digging himself out of the hole he dug.
     
  12. flamingdts

    flamingdts Member

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    Do you even know what on/off stats represent?

    If a team was outscored by 10 points on the court with a player, but outscored by 14 points with him off the court, he would have a on/off difference of +4. On the other hand, if a team outscores their opponent by 10 points on the court, but 14 points with him off the court, they would have an on/off difference of -4.

    That could mean a million things. For example:

    1. KPJ has a worse backup (Armoni Brooks, DJ Augustin)
    2. Jalen Green had a better backup (Eric Gordon, Josh Christopher).

    KPJ does not have a "net positive +/-", you aren't even reading the stats right. When KPJ was on the court, the Rockets were outscored by 7 points. When he was off the court, they were outscored by 11 points. KPJ didn't help the team cut the deficit when he was on the court, they continued to get outscored, but just a little less than when he was off the court.

    Just in case this wasn't clear enough, in James Harden's MVP season, his on/off differential was +5.3. Do you know why? It's because when he was not on the court, Chris Paul would back him up, so the Rockets would continue to outscore their opponents with Harden off the court. Harden wouldn't even be top 3 on the team if you looked at purely on/off differential (Paul, Gordon, Tucker were all higher), but he has a clear dominant lead when looking at proper advanced stats like VORP, BPM or WS.

    How did you even arrive at the conclusion that his "net rating" or "+/-" is a positive +4? It just means whenever he was not on the court, the Rockets were losing a bit more. There is reason why on/off is not even considered a proper advanced stat, and why BPM, VORP or WS are used instead.
     
    #2672 flamingdts, Sep 26, 2022
    Last edited: Sep 26, 2022
    DatRocketFan likes this.
  13. Bobbythegreat

    Bobbythegreat Member
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    Again, you are talking about raw box score +/-, that's not what I'm talking about. It's not ever what I was talking about.

    I'm talking about the difference in the team's net rating when the player was on the court vs when they were off the court. I've explained this a few times already but you keep going back to the raw box score plus minus and it's derailing any progress that could be made in this conversation.

    When Jalen Green was on the court, the Rockets had an offensive rating of 107.1, when he was off the court, the Rockets offensive rating improved to 110.9 making him a -3.8 on that end of the court for the season.

    When Jalen Green was on the court, the opposing team had an offensive rating of 119.2, when he was off the court, the opposing team's offensive rate fell to 116.3 making him a +2.9 to the other team on that end of the court...or you could see it as him harming the Rockets' defense by 2.9 points.

    You add the two up and it puts his overall contribution to the team at -6.7 for the season....which is terrible, but WAY better than the -20 he was to the team at mid-season. Green being so harmful to the team his rookie season ended up a good thing....it's how we got Jabari. If he played the whole season like he did the final bit, or not at all, the Rockets likely pick much later in the first round.....and we got to see flashes of his potential towards the end of the season, a win-win in a tanking year.

    Now KPJ on the other hand, the Rockets offensive rating was 109.5 with him on the court compared to 108.2 with him off the court making him a +1.3 on offense. On defense the opposing team's offensive rating went from 116.5 with him on the court, to 119.2 with him off the court....a difference of 2.7 in the Rockets favor. Add that up and you have a +4.0 total impact to the team when he was on the court.


    Anyway, I have no interest in continuing this nonsense with you, the season is nearly here and this has already been talked to death. Either you are going to accept that your narrative on this is a bit ridiculous, or you are going to keep trying to make KPJ your whipping boy.....doesn't really matter to me. Let's just let it play out and see if you remain staunchly anti-KPJ or if you become open to just being a normal Rockets fan willing and able to embrace the team's best players.
     
  14. jordnnnn

    jordnnnn Member

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    lol. The cycle continues
     
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  15. flamingdts

    flamingdts Member

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    I can't believe after the TS% debacle, where it took literally 50 posts to finally figure out what TS% meant, you are still trying to argue on terminology that you have no business using.

    The team's net rating with or without KPJ on the court is negative.

    Since you have a lot of trouble understanding, I'll ask a simple question - The Rockets were losing by 7 with KPJ on the court, and losing by 11 with KPJ off the court. Do you think this means KPJ improved the team's net rating by +4?

    Do you even know what net rating means? If you do, why do you think on/off stats differ from +/-, or BPM, or a literal net rating stat.
     
    #2675 flamingdts, Sep 26, 2022
    Last edited: Sep 26, 2022
  16. astrosrule

    astrosrule Member

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    ya who your backup is will have a lot of impact on some of these stats, the warriors have always had horrible backup PGs to prop up curry's on/off stats
     
  17. Bobbythegreat

    Bobbythegreat Member
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    Well, I gave you the actual numbers of the team's offensive rating with the players on the court vs off the court along with the opposing team's offensive rating with the players on the court vs off the court and I spelled it out for you in as simple terms as possible. If you still can't figure it out, that's really not my problem....for whatever reason you just keep going back to box score plus minus despite me repeatedly telling you that's not what I'm talking about.

    Either way, I'm writing you off as a hopeless case. There's no reason to have you continue derping up the thread given that your attempts to re-write history are irrelevant to the topic at hand AND we'll be having some actual new games just around the corner. As I said to you before, either you are going to remain staunchly anti-KPJ or maybe you'll become open to just being a normal Rockets fan that is willing and able to embrace the team's best players.

    You wasting more of my time, repeatedly failing to follow along in conversation won't make any difference in that one way or the other, so what's the point?
     
  18. flamingdts

    flamingdts Member

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    You used a completely different stat (on/off differential) and called them net rating improvement, as opposed to using the actual net rating stat or even the more standard +/- stat.

    This is how a standard +/- is calculated:
    1. KPJ on the court is outscored by 5 points, he is -5.
    2. KPJ off the court, the team is outscored by 10 points.
    3. KPJ is back on the court, and the team is out scored by 1 point, he is now -6.
    A standard +/- would have interpreted this as KPJ being -6. Net rating uses a similar logic, but standardized to 100 possessions.

    You on the other hand, twisted the values to say:
    1. KPJ on the court is outscored by 5 points, he is -5.
    2. KPJ off the court, the team is outscored by 10 points. Because they were outscored by 10 points with KPJ off the court, KPJ now has a positive +5 impact on the team.
    3. KPJ is back on the court, and the team is out scored by 1 point, so his total impact on the team was +4.
    And this somehow makes sense in your head.
     
  19. Bobbythegreat

    Bobbythegreat Member
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    To a certain extent that is true, but when you look at the entire roster, most everyone was either positive or not too far into the negative. When you see players who played significant minutes who were extremely far into the negative....those are usually the guys dragging others down. Last season, no one drug the team's performance down like Theis and Green, though Green almost completely redeemed his numbers by finishing well. He was a strong net positive towards the end of the season....which is what should make us so excited about this upcoming season, but instead we're here arguing with the anti-KPJ crowd.
     
  20. AlperenSengun

    AlperenSengun Member

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    This discussion should have ended here but let's play along for the fun of it.

    Imagine KPJ's replacement is a clone of KPJ, call him KPJ2. And for simplicity, let's assume that the first unit is replaced by the second unit. KPJ2 will probably do worse on Bobby's metric, because he is playing with the second unit. In fact KPJ2 will have -4 if KPJ has +4 net rating. But they are the same player. So who is the real kpj?
     
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