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Poll: Top Pick or Play-in Tourney?

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by Sweet Lou 4 2, Dec 4, 2021.

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Which would make you happier to see happen at the end of the season?

  1. Rockets get a top 5 pick in the draft

  2. Rockets make the play-in tourney

Results are only viewable after voting.
  1. fchowd0311

    fchowd0311 Member

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    Depends what you mean by "young"? The Rockets have two vets over 25 that will have consistent rotational minutes (EG Tate). The rest are 22 and younger. THAT young of a team winning 35+ games? Yes that is very promising.
     
  2. jordnnnn

    jordnnnn Member

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    We aren’t sniffing the play in. No need for the hypotheticals.

    Green made a huge leap in season last year and we sucked. Green, Sengun and KPJ can all make another leap and it’s still likely to be offset by the infusion of even more youth we made this off-season.
     
    dmoneybangbang and fchowd0311 like this.
  3. fchowd0311

    fchowd0311 Member

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    You are still severely underestimating age and experience. All those guys can have promising seasons where as fans we can be like "they are on a good trajectory" and this team can still win only 25 games. That's what a lack of experience means in the NBA. You can't expect a team led by second year players to win in any meaningful way.

    There is a solid chance that the top 5 players on this team by the end of the season are going to be 22 and under. That's insane.
     
  4. Reeko

    Reeko Member

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    this is another thing that gets me with the tank fanatics…99% of them want to tank for just 1 guy: Wemby…no one else in the draft hardly ever gets mentioned

    to me, prioritizing winning would be using cap space to sign a bunch of vets and playing them the majority of minutes, and using up our trade assets to bolster the roster which isn’t what Stone has done…this hypothetical play-in berth this upcoming season would be solely on the backs of the young core of 1st and 2nd year players heavily progressing and overachieving which is nothing but a good thing in my eyes
     
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  5. larsv8

    larsv8 Member

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    In no way, shape or form is that a given.
     
  6. fchowd0311

    fchowd0311 Member

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    It's more of a given than whoever we get in the draft from tanking again becoming a superstar.
     
  7. Reeko

    Reeko Member

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    neither is your tank dreams
     
  8. larsv8

    larsv8 Member

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    lol ridiculous

    We have data showing the odds of getting a high level talent player based on position of the draft.

    "Having x jump by year 2 means you have a superstar!" - that is not quantitative, that is speculative nonsense.
     
  9. fchowd0311

    fchowd0311 Member

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    I definitely don't think it's ridiculous. You are trying to make a point while removing all context which means you don't fully believe your point here.


    Let's phrase it this way.

    If this team by the halfway point with this current roster is looking like they might approach near .500 ball(very unlikely) and will not have a lottery pick are their pace of wins, are you going to consider sitting out our 20 year old crusty vets like Green and Sengun to help them not win as many games?

    If you have to rest 20 year olds to lose games in the NBA, you found your core. You are done tanking.
     
  10. larsv8

    larsv8 Member

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    That isnt the question

    "Which would make you happier to see happen at the end of the season?"
     
  11. fchowd0311

    fchowd0311 Member

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    Okay. But you still can answer my question. If the Rockets by the mid point look to not be on trajectory to be bad enough to have a top 10 pick, do you want to sit out the players who are making us win too much which will be players like Sengun and Green who are 20.
     
  12. Reeko

    Reeko Member

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    What is speculative nonsense is the original foolishness u quoted me.

    Jalen Green, a #2 overall pick, making a huge jump in year 2 from the promising rookie year he just displayed to the point the Rockets are a play-in team means it’s likely he has superstar talent…I guess common sense isn’t so common
     
  13. larsv8

    larsv8 Member

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    No.
     
  14. larsv8

    larsv8 Member

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    Again, no it doesn't.

    And even if it did, it would still be better to have a shot at an additional superstar to add to Green.
     
  15. Reeko

    Reeko Member

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    Again, yes it does.

    I can only laugh at those who think a young core progressing rapidly is a bad thing because they have tank dreams…so ridiculous
     
  16. fchowd0311

    fchowd0311 Member

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    Okay so you would be more happy if they started winning enough games next season to not be a lottery team?

    Because I would assume you would chose the option that would make you more happy which would be rest the players that are making us miss out on a top pick and let the team tank.
     
  17. fchowd0311

    fchowd0311 Member

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    We have immense draft capital and cap space moving forward. If this young core shows a lot of promise, top free agents will naturally be attracted to our situation or with our draft capital trade for a current superstar.
     
  18. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Go Stros!
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    Are you suggesting the data from NBA players is less reliable on player future performance than data obtained on a prospect prior to the draft?

    From guys that actually quantify things, here are a couple of projections with confidence limits with one of what a 2nd year bump means and one of what being the No. 1 pick mean:

    2nd year jump.PNG

    Top Prospect.PNG

    Please note that to get a 10-14 jump in wins, it will take 2 players having 2nd year bumps over expectations for a bottom tier team to get to the play in. So essentially, would you rather have 2 guys in the bracket of expectations of the first chart or one of the bottom chart?
     
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  19. Reeko

    Reeko Member

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    hype up the odds of drafting a player with superstar talent with a top pick while simultaneously discounting the odds that a player we drafted 2nd overall making a massive jump from a promising rookie year has superstar talent

    tank dreamer logic
     
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  20. larsv8

    larsv8 Member

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    It would be bad for a team that is not on contender trajectory to progress quickly and then top out on a treadmill.

    We have seen this mistake over and over again, with dumb owners wanting to be good to quickly, only to lock themselves into mediocrity.
     

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