Man I just know as a Rox fan, this is a critical time for the franchise. Chemistry is key. Hope all is well behind the scenes. If so, good times ahead.
I think the best way to evaluate his impact is looking at the per possession numbers and raw shooting numbers. On a per possession basis, he's terrible offensively. 18th percentile in isolation. 34th percentile in pick and roll. These numbers are not indicative of an efficient player and it gets worse from here. As a shooter he overall he's mediocre at best but he does one thing at a very high level - shoot the catch and shoot 3 .482 but on all other 3's he's .334 which is sub par. Then there's the FT's which aren't so free at .642. For a lead guard that's unacceptable, for one who's game revolves around getting to the rim or the line doubly unacceptable. He doesn't have a 2:1 assist to turnover ratio .... actually its 1.96:1 and this doesn't make the top 100 in the league. It doesn't even make the top 50 guards who were all at least 3.0:1 ....1.96:1 is good for # 164 among guards and #216 overall. This discussion started as "should we resign KPJ" and if so .... "for how much". Right now, if I can't get a deal done for his cap hold or less. I wait for RFA and tell him to bring me his best offer and I'll match it if I feel it's not an overpay. I'd probably feel the same way regardless of his level of play because of the advantage it gives in exceeding the cap this coming offseason to add talent and keep Porter as well .... but the conversation would have a different tone than it does now being at "bring me your best offer". It really isn't practical for the team to sign him right now if they intend to be winners next season - they need to spend their cap space on top tier talent first, then use their bird rights to keep Porter if they deem him worthy of a new contract. The line in the sand right now is his cap hold $9,652,893.
I told Sengun would hit the rookie Wall around 30 games and you insisted he wouldn't. Well he did as I predicted of shooting 41% from three up until 20 games but then hit a measly 21% from three in the final 52 games he played in. I saw teams begging him to shoot while he was top of the key three. The Olynyk role where he was straight away 3 works if the opposition fears his three-ball. Teams feared Olynyk three which made the passing from there work. Teams didn't respect Sengun three ball so they laid off of him and sagged off into the paint. Clogging up stuff. According to NBA.con stats Pick-n-Roll (Roll-Man): 21/22 Wood: 16.9 frequency...1.20 PPP....66.9 NBA percentile Sengun: 15.8 frequency...0.96 PPP...26.1 NBA percentile Cuts Wood: 8.7 frequency....1.28 PPP....49.4 NBA percentile Sengun: 9.7 frequency...1.20 PPP....35.7 NBA percentile ______________ Your idea of screen and roll or screen-n-Pop being good are different. Sengun screening at the 3-pt line leaves two defenders on the ball handler because no one respected him enough to stay with him. As you can see in my diagram, all the excess bodies in the paint; what do you think that hampers P-n-Roll? You think it's easy fitting the ball thru small windows? Thru all that clutter? It's hard when Sengun, Tate give you no vertical spacing. Wood does but didn't want to perform the task enough. Mavs players did in 19/21......which tells me Rockets personnel either didn't want to or weren't good enough to do it at a greater extent. Theis scored around 60-something in NBA percentile with Boston. That's why Theis was brought in......but Wood went on strike around the 8th game and tanked his 3-pt shot to get Silas fired or Theis booted out of the lineup. Now I'm hoping your boy Sengun will have the stamina to hit 3's the entire season; which will allow Sengun to actually run that Olynyk role of passing from the top of the break. Rockets can actually run Pick-n-Roll or Pick-n-Pop proper like. I know what this is about with you. You want Sengun to have all the touches. But Post Ups are still the most inefficient plays run on offense. That crap needs to be limited to 8-10 possessions.....just to force the opposition to see the point of attack at a different angle. And Brunson without Doncic is like 10 games......opposition let their guard down thinking they had an easy night. And for the most part they did. Brunson got the Cameron Paynes and Jeremy Lambs guarding him night in and night out while KPj got the Mikal Bridges and Thybulle. Please don't come at me with that weak stuff.
This is exactly what I've been saying. If he breaks out and becomes a star, pay him what he's worth. Why worry about him commanding a big contract. If he does, then it's actually great news. If he doesn't turn into a generational star and some team wants to over pay him in the RFA market, let them. We still have a load of young talents to build on. The risk of not extending him is much smaller than the risk of extending him with a big contract.
Really.....are you on your phone? Is the screen lock on? Turning the phone on its side doesn't expand the image? Sorry B-it, I tried to help. I wish you could experience the full magnitude of my basketball geniuses. JK
Without getting too long winded, I'd say (1) KPJ has clearly improved meaningfully since the Rockets got him, (2) KPJ has also improved in regards to "issues" in my opinion. He had one issue last year, which is noteworthy, but not the end of the world. His "issue" with the Cavs is completely misframed - they literally moved his locker to an auxillary room when they acquired Prince... they like put him around the corner in a closet or some **** lol. I'm glad he was like **** this, they should have released him and said best of luck not dicked around, (3) i think you are overestimated the ability and impact of just randomly signing veterans. do we want them? can we sign them? how do we sign them? Etc. Like you mention just "trading for the infinite number of bad contracts" - how? you have to match salary or have the cap space and i guarantee Stone isn't acquiring bad contracts into cap space even with an asset in return UNLESS said bad contract is expiring or the like. I ABSOLUTELY agree that KPJ needs to be a more efficient scorer. This is 2022, not 2002... people score more efficiently now. I don't think situation has helped him at all, from Cleveland to here. Last year was a bit of a ****-show... like Keldon is assisted on 97% of his 3s. KPJ 50%. Keldon was assisted on 75% of his buckets overall. KPJ 38%. They have different roles, on different teams with different coaches, etc. KPJ definitely CAN BE a ballhandler/creator. Keldon averaged 2.0 assists per game. Big picture, one of the things i thought DM did very poorly in his years with the Rockets was lose assets for basically nothing. Waited too long on TMac. Parson for nothing. Too long on Dwight. Ariza for nothing. And the backup plan was always "amazing!!!" on paper but **** in reality. I think KPJ has value for the Rockets and around the league and i dont want to (1) overpay him next year, or (2) lose him for nothing
Because he has a really stupid name, so unless he actually gets good he gets an equally stupid nickname. Random RGV caliber scrubs don't get to be called "Tyty", they are "Titty" till they show they are at least role player quality.
All fine and solid points. I was very unforgiving on my analysis of KPJ last year. I just have swung a bit to this guys got talent, is a hardworking kid, and was in a shitty situation like MUCH of the team until the second half of the season. Not a complete 180 as I am still wary of KPJ as a point, but i have swung enough to see this guy is a legit NBA player and in the right situation is a valuable piece. Like the a:to ratio. For one its the same as guards like Ja Morant, Steph Curry, Luka. Which doesnt make it great or anything, just a look at score first all nba type PGs. For two post all star break in 22 games it was 2.44, even if still not CP3 point-god levels, a vast improvement. His ft% went from 60% pre all-star game to 71% post. His overall fg% went up 4%. Everyone's like JG look what he did post all star game and the last two weeks!!! OMG!!!!.Kevin was equally good if not better, as he was racking up more boards and assists as well. Now yes, he has 2 more years in the league on JG, but as i noted previously he has started fewer NBA games at PG than JG has at SG. And he did that being coached by Silas - so far a horrible coach - and with a broken roster, first with the same spacing issues everyone had with Theis, and thereafter with the same issues everyone had with Wood. Wood was a disaster to the team imo, because he was the "alpha" in his mind on our squad and that's a bad idea. He should be better with Luka, as he was better with Harden... but i still think unless he just accepts and fully embraces a role, Mavs fans are in for a little bit of a rude awakening... especially if you factor in his non-existent defense. And also one has to be cautious with KPJ because we all wanted more last year and it turned out so poorly to start. I am of the opinion this year will be a bit of a 180 in regards to that, with a lot of Rockets fans expecting meh'ness from him and focusing more on JG, Bari, Alpi and Tari... so maybe KPJ just comes in super solid and surprises us. --- But your points are valid. I don't think he gets extended, so we will all get to see how the year goes and what happens next offseason.
I'm not too tech savvy.... but I will try to do better in the future Did that all fit or do I need to thin it out more?
1) Improved meaningfully in what way? None of his numbers back that up... just like the 100 pages worth of posts from this thread have been repeating over and over with all sorts of stats to back that claim up. Still bottom half of the league in terms of scoring efficiency in isolation, still bottom half of the league in terms of true shooting %, still bottom half of the league in terms of A/TO. Where has he improved?? Where have you been throughout this whole discussion? 2) Improved in regards to "issues" according to you? Also, they aren't just "issues", and it wasn't just one noteworthy issue. He had the food throwing incident in the locker room, he also refused to sub out after making some boneheaded plays and started pouting on the sideline even with Silas and Lucas calling for his ass to get back on the bench. And not sure why some of you KPJ supporters keep saying the halftime drive home incident is something to just brush off. His issues in Cleveland weren't some minor issues. His issues at USC weren't just some minor issues. If at each point, these issues were minor, they wouldn't keep continuing to be a trend, year after year. Just once, can he have one clear year of no incidents before we say okay, he's turned the corner? Having no issues is what Jalen, or Alperen had in their rookie year - absolutely nothing came up. The stuff that KPJ did even last season is not normal for an NBA player. Stop trying to give him a free pass. 3) Overestimate the ability and impact of randomly signing veterans? What the hell was Daniel Theis then? He signed even when everyone and their mom knew the Rockets would be the worst team in the league. It doesn't have to be some perfect fit veteran. Just a steady pro who we can just overpay a bit above market value for a short term contract as a placeholder to reach that salary floor. It's really not that hard to sign those guys when most teams are only giving out at best taxpayer MLE level contracts and the Rockets with cap space can give out a contract with a higher average annual value. It sure as hell is a lot better to overpay for a short-term 1-2 yr moveable contract for a vet who won't even demand a huge role on the team rather than be potentially tied to an underperforming KPJ for 4-5 years. And trading for bad contracts? Why would it be so hard? Even you said yourself the Rockets will have a ton of cap space this summer, why wouldn't they be able to absorb some bad contracts from teams who are hard pressed with the luxury tax? That stuff happens all the time..Sam Presti makes a living out of it. Salary matching rules don't apply when you are trading a player into cap space, and the Rockets should have plenty of it once the Wall contract is off the books at the end of this season. How can you guarantee that Stone won't trade for a bad contract into cap space even with an asset in return? If the returning asset is something like a mid-first round pick, why would he not consider that? What makes you so absolutely sure he won't?? Had no idea people could actually read minds. All these discussions by prominent NBA analysts this offseason regarding the Rockets have talked about KPJ and his place on the team and almost every time, every analyst would question his place and his worth on the team. They all know this is his big year to make or break it in the league... but they also mention how when they talk around league circles, there still isn't really that much positive sentiment towards KPJ. What suddenly makes YOU believe that other NBA teams value KPJ highly? Again, blame his situation and his teammates all you want, but that still doesn't mean you just fork over money to him when he hasn't proven anything. Stop looking at what other teams did to try to find a reason for extending KPJ. The Rockets need to use this year to see if KPJ really fits into what they have going forward, and if not, cut bait early so that they can find a piece that fits the core better. No one in their right mind can say KPJ is a great fit on the Rockets right now. Maybe he will be, maybe he won't. Maybe he fits better on a different team and the Rockets just aren't the right team for him. Stuff like that happens all the time. Doesn't mean we should force ourselves to commit to KPJ when there are still so many unknowns regarding his character, his on-court performance, and his fit with the team. This really isn't that hard.
