We are talking about Brunson's contribution to getting to the playoffs , which you commented 'I guess it was Jalen Brunson who carried Dallas to the playoffs!'. And winshares say that he actually did contributed. Does not diminish or elevate KPJ, which you are obviously obsessed with. You talk about how being the first option elevates Brunson's numbers but you fail to recognize that KPJ, by design, is the primary and almost only option to make assists on the current roster, compared to sga or bron getting those numbers while other players on the team get similar numbers. KPJ asssist numbers are mediocre for a primary guard on a team that attacks to the basket after one pass most of the time.
Brunson was assisting a veteran playoff team!! LMAO cmon man dont be dense. You know how win shares work. If you want to have a genuine discussion do it in good faith. If KPJs assist numbers are "mediocre" what does that make Brunson? Or will you only use his stats WITHOUT Luka for effect? Such a revelation! Better teammates = better stats! I need to get this info over to the metrics sites ASAP! "KPJ's assist numbers are mediocre for a primary guard on a team that attacks the basket after one pass" If you want to say "KPJ needs to attack the basket MORE with efficiency and convert his free throw attempts at a higher rate" I would agree.
2.5 wins on a team that won 20 total games is not meaningful in any way IMO. I am talking this team currently and besides that he is still a young player, so he has a chance to improve on all of this yet some people are trying to write him off because of 72 points across an 82 game season. I have no problem with this theory I just don't see how it invalidates anything I have said, does this theory also take into account who he was playing with? I'm sorry, at the end of the day it's less than a half a point a game, and it's only 2.5 wins if we were talking about a contending team with a veteran player I would be on board, but we are talking the exact opposite. What kind of thing are we supposed to measuring?
What the heck doe Why don't you use that same logic for the KPJ detractors? They are doing the same thing with his tru% and his overall shooting percentage, they ignore everything else. Pot meet kettle.
Win shares last year 3rd year KPJ on a tanking 20 win team : 0.8 1st year Franz Wagner on a tanking 22 win team : 4.0 How is this possible? Oh right. The quality of your team does not effect your win shares like you would think. It’s not in the formula. It’s based almost entirely on your personal possession efficiency on offense and defense.
More misdirection to distract from the claim made earlier in the thread. The claim KPJ was on tanking team therefor incapable of producing win shares at a higher level. False.
I wasn't trying to "invalidate" anything you said, I was just trying to contribute to the conversation. From the way you were talking in your posts, it seemed as though you thought "72 points over 82 games" was some kind of nebulous and unquantifiable thing, and that we can't really know what kind of a difference that makes. I thought it helped the conversation to show that we can have a pretty good idea of the difference that would make. If you want look at that and decide that a ~2.5 win improvement isn't significant, that's fine. We're all entitled to our own opinion.
he was 20, a year younger and 2 less years of nba experience then kpj. The point was that team wins have nothing to do with win shares, the teams record isn't part of the calculation of win shares, it's an individual stat
While you are correct about win shares, some context is required. KPJ had a LOT to overcome last season, you had guys like Wood who didn't want to be there, scrubs like Tate destroying spacing, Jalen Green playing like the worst player in the league for half the season or more, and he was drawing the best defender every single night with basically no help for large chunks of the season. We saw how things changed once Wood was out of the lineup and Green figured it out on offense. If we had that all season long, numbers would be very different. That's why there's reason for excitement heading into this season.
@jordnnnn (sorry when I tried to quote you direct the format got all wonky) Saying Franz Wagner contributed MORE in his 20 wins than Kevin Porter Jr. is not really a revelation. Wagner had way less turnovers, a better 2p% and WAS more impactful and efficient overall in those wins. It is still a cumulative stat without even accounting for the slippery slope that defensive analytics can be when being used as a weighted portion of win shares as a whole while absolutely requiring good defensive teammates to contribute. I dont think you would find many Pistons fans pumping up Saddiq Bey as a cornerstone for example and still uber excited with Cade and his NEGATIVE win shares. Therein lies a deeper conversation about positional values in the modern NBA but one thing at a time. Comparing win shares from winning teams to losing teams is dumb, but at least keeping it apples to apples among dumpster fires makes the discussion valuable so I welcome that type of debate. Quality of team = More wins = more win shares to divvy up look at the Toronto Raptors for example with ROY Scottie Barnes and his output.
I love KPJ, but you guys that want to extend him are absolutely nuts. Want to find a really quick way to piss off JG/Jabari and kill this rebuild? Sign KPJ to a long term deal. Make him prove it this year. We have him locked down. No need to take such a massive risk. JG, Jabari, and especially Sengun are all better options then KPJ. He needs to fall in line, or we need to reassess this thing.
LOL - wtf ever..... KPJ is a 21 year old guy who has never played PG before and did a pretty good job of it on a lousy team. All of this advanced stats bullshit is nonsense...for a developing player, you can't compare guys that are 20-21 years old and new to the league to 30 year old veterans and try to garner an "AHA" moment it just exposes people for what they are...haters of a player. If they were truly interested they would try to find like - comps of players that were around the same age, 3rd year in the league and trying to move to PG.....and compare.....and even those stats will be skewed by what level of team they were on. KPJ was on a historically bad team - to even bring up win shares is just Laugh out Loud funny. And that goes for ANY Rocket's player. A real comparison will be comparing THIS season to last. DD
This is 100% inaccurate. When calculating win shares of individual players on a team, how many wins that players team has does not factor even 1% into the calculation. It’s just not how it works. They don’t start the calculation by saying the Raptors had X many wins and we now have to divide them accordingly to each player on the team. Win shares assigns value to certain stats and spits out an expected amount of wins added based on those numbers. Which is why even in a game a players team loses they still can add positive win shares.
Win SHARE means that it is a percentage of something. It’s a share of a given figure. A win share is worth one-third of a team win. If a team wins 60 games, there are 180 'Win Shares' to distribute among the players.
Well, another day without an extension. We know who is looking stupid here. Edit:Bobby crying about Green again because his hero sucks. Fat boy as well
The process for crediting Offensive Win Shares is outlined below (using LeBron James of the 2008-09 Cleveland Cavaliers as an example): Calculate points produced for each player. In 2008-09, James had an estimated 2345.9 points produced. Calculate offensive possessions for each player. James had an estimated 1928.1 offensive possessions in 2008-09. Calculate marginal offense for each player. Marginal offense is equal to (points produced) - 0.92 * (league points per possession) * (offensive possessions). For James this is 2345.9 - 0.92 * 1.083 * 1928.1 = 424.8. Note that this formula may produce a negative result for some players. Calculate marginal points per win. Marginal points per win reduces to 0.32 * (league points per game) * ((team pace) / (league pace)). For the 2008-09 Cavaliers this is 0.32 * 100.0 * (88.7 / 91.7) = 30.95. Credit Offensive Win Shares to the players. Offensive Win Shares are credited using the following formula: (marginal offense) / (marginal points per win). James gets credit for 424.8 / 30.95 = 13.73 Offensive Win Shares. https://www.basketball-reference.com/about/ws.html From bball reference.
