I'm sure that is what will happen at least against some of those teams, but I would hold him out against Tampa. Why let them see him when they have a good chance of being the team we face in the ALDS? I feel in 2020 that was signifcant advantage against the Twins and Tampa. They hadn't seen Cristian Javier, Enoli Paredes, Andre Scrubb, Luis Garcia, etc. Twins had seen Framber but Tampa had not and Framber held them to 3 runs in 12 innings. I would like to see Brown come out of the pen and go through the lineup one time. I think that would be his best fit for the Astros in the playoffs.
My gawd... it was a miracle that Scrubb, Taylor, and Sneed played meaningful games that season, and we somehow can still call that year a decent success.
Exactly. Garcia is not a lock by any means, especially with his performance trending down the last 2 months. The 4th starter should be whoever has the hottest arm going into the postseason, period. Whether it be Urquidy, Javier, Garcia, or Brown. Javier makes the most sense as long relief given his experience in the role. Martinez has been consistently very good as a reliever this year, especially against righties. He's my choice
Wade is so underappreciated as a GM. Was Luhnow better? Absolutely, but Keuchel, Altuve, Springer, and I think maybe Marwin were all Ed Wade guys. No Wade, no 'chip in 2017. If we win the WS this year, we will look backward to Luhnow and give him credit, I think Wade should get the same courtesy for 2017 (at least partial credit).
I agree by the way But for accuracy, Marwin was Luhnow's first important move. ( I know you mentioned you weren't sure) But Luhnow also implemented extreme changes ( shift, pitch usage, data) that made Keuchel viable.
post 199: "If we're dealing a major league starter i would lean Framber because he's closest to getting paid, older, and i think he fetches the most via trade." It's probably not happening, but that poster should really consider not talking about baseball anymore.
I expect one or two changes at the back end of the roster between each rounds just based on matchups and when the rest days are... I can see us going with heavy position players in round 1.
Playoff pitching: Locks: Sp1) Verlander Sp2) Framber Sp3) McCullers ( won't move him now) Sp4) Javier Long/Sp5) Urquidy Closer) Pressly S-u) Montero S-u) Neris S-u) Stanek S-u) Abreu That leaves 2 spots in ALDS and 3 in ALCS Garcia, Maton, Smith, Martinez, and Brown are the candidates Garcia: experience and dependable if not great or even good the entire season. Maton: great in post season last year eventhough he was worse in regular season than this year. Smith: numbers look good as an Astro ( even if he's been lucky) and was post season hero last year against Dodgers and Astros. Click may feel the need to put him up on stage because he was trade deadline acquisition. Martinez: did everything and more the team could ask of him as a rookie but his numbers are a bit short of some others. Brown: the prodigy with amazing stuff could be huge weapon. My prediction: The team will stay with the guys who got them here. They would really need a reason to put Martinez and Brown on the roster over the other 3 guys. I don't see enough of a downside in them to justify that in the team's eyes. Martinez and Brown go home. ( Brown could be taxi squad) Garcia has been here all year. He makes both ALDS and ALCS rosters I think Smith has done just enough and Maton has been mediocre enough to lose his spot and justify adding a lefty. Smith makes both squads. Maton is added for ALCS if the team makes it.
Playoff roster : position. Locks: Maldy Vazquez Gurriel Mancini Altuve Bregman Pena A.Diaz Alvarez McCormick Tucker That leaves 3 spots for the ALDS and 2 for ALCS ( if they get there) If Tucker and/or McCormick get hurt or need a day off Dubon is the only CF/RF option so he has to make both squads. Matijevic, Hensley, or Y.Diaz. ( They have not given any reason to think Meyers, Korey Lee, or Taylor Jones are even options) are the choices. With Dubon on this roster there are no position weaknesses. The team is very RH heavy so eventhough he won't get off the bench except for possibly a blowout or 15 inning game, J J. makes the team. With A. Diaz and Dubon both on thevteam, Y.Diaz's bat and emergency catching ability make him a better choice than Hensley and his versatility. Hensley is on taxi squad and Y Diaz joins him if they make the ALCS.
Hot take: Astros will have Click or Dusty back next year. But not both. The usage of the trade acquisitions and call ups hint at philosophical differences between Click and Dusty.
I am curious... do you think there are differences between Dusty and Click in terms of what is the ideal roster? I can see Dusty requesting more speed and requiring a lefty on the roster; whereas, Click will want to prioritize multi-inning relievers and OBP.
I think Dusty and Click ae very opposite in their ideas and not on the same page at all. I think if the team wins the World Series both will return, but Joe Espada won't. If the team doesn't then Espada is the new manager and Click may or may not return.
I also see Dusty being on better personal terms with Crane than Click though just due to personalities and such.
It's all about winning. Crane will not make a change if they win the World Series. I expect both would return. Dusty may decide to retire a winner but that is not what I have read. Dusty may want to return regardless. But with another Series ring, I think Crane let's Dusty choose.
IF Brown shows out the rest of the year and they leave him off the roster for Smith or Maton I'm going to be pretty pissed. If Smith or Maton throws a post season pitch it should be a fireable offense for Dusty, and Click should probably get fired too for constructing the post season roster in such a dumb ass way that Dusty has the ability to **** it up and pitch one of those two. All the above is null and void if we end up with any injuries between here and there.
I understand how you feel. I don't have as strong negative feelings about Maton and Smith, but get it. I would love to see Brown if he has a good September. However I don't think that is how this team thinks. I don't think they will bring a semi-tested rookie to replace a veteran unless there is clear evidence the veteran can't do the job. And I think the team feels Maton and Smith are not negatives. They have experience, post season performance history, and have been closer to average than bad. And they're not willing to replace them unless they are negatives.
Even if, say, Garcia stinks it up down the stretch, and Brown stays in the rotation and dominates, I really feel like the team will value Garcia's experience (even if it's not that much, and mixed results) over Brown's youth and inexperience. Brown may very well make the roster, but I imagine it would be at the expense of one of the lower leverage relievers.
I have a strong preference against my team doing stupid and sub optimal **** in the playoffs. here’s the list of stupid and suboptimal **** they shouldn’t do: Allow Smith or Maton to ever throw a pitch outside of something completely egregious. They are, at absolute best, the 13th and 14th best options in the organization. Consign Javier to a long relief role. He’s one of the top 25 starters in the American League and probably more like top 15. Start him and let him shove allow Dubon to ever take an AB. He shouldn’t be on the roster but if you have to have him in there whatever, but he never needs an AB Allow Yuli to start at 1B. It shouldn’t happen. A Diaz is better hitter and it’s not particularly close, and Diaz is also a better fielder. I’m fine with him being on the roster and being a PH option against LHP. Ever allow Maldy to have an important AB after about the 3 rd inning in a game we are trailing. All of that stuff I mentioned is sub optimal **** that has no business happening in the playoffs and that we have better options for. The FO knows this definitively. If it’s allowed to continue to happen Crane should rightfully fire everyone involved in baseball operations with any kind of decision making capacity. Altuve, Alvarez, Bregman, Tucker, Mancini, Diaz, Peña, Chas, Vasquez. That’s the lineup. JV, Framber, LMJ, Javier. That’s the rotation. Then your leverage from 1st to worst is: Presley, Abreu, Montero, Stanek, Neris Urquidy or Brown as your bridge if you need one. Garcia your emergency guy. That’s it. Nobody else should touch a ball.
I strongly suspect that’s what the math tells you to do. If anything I said is in conflict with the math then do what the math says. You can Sim the lineup 100k times before each game. Go with the numbers. Have a plan for oitching that makes empirical sense and stick with it. If it doesn’t work so be it, but the time for irrationality or hunches should end in October. We know the correct answer. Use it.
IMO, most of your list is silly. Re: Smith/Maton/Brown for the last spot in the pen. We're not winning or losing the WS based on the last guy in the pen. Not a thing. They didn't lose the WS last year because of the last guy in the pen; they lost cuz they didn't score enough. Javier to the fireman role. He's definitely valuable as a starter but a multi-inning fireman in the playoffs is damn near invaluable. Not a lot of guys can transition to higher leverage, multi-inning bullpen work successfully but we know Javier can. Starter or fireman, there's no bad option here. Dubon getting AB's: Similar to the last man in the pen argument, the stros aren't winning or lose the WS on one of the last bench players. Just not a big deal. Yuli: he's gonna get starts at 1st. There's a whole lot of evidence to suggest you're gonna be needlessly disappointed if you're expecting him to NOT play. Maldy: it's gonne feel bad if/when maldy leaves runners on base when the astros are down... but lets not pretend Maldy is necessary to make come backs. Of all the things I worry about playoff wise, none of your list is in the top 3. I worry about running into a streaking Atlanta (again), a juggernaut Dodgers team or the bats ALL going cold at once. None of your list moves the needle on any of those.
