Agreed, however it does seem like we’ve been on the good end of that a few times. Alvarez for Fields, potentially Diaz for Straw, picking up Colin McHugh on waivers.
Cost of doing business. Have a robust development program and you're probably going to miss out on a few because they were wrong place/wrong time. At the time, all those guys were considered B/C-level prospects that weren't great fits with the organizational strategy. It'd be kinda much to crow about all the times where Houston turns someone else's trash into gold (e.g. Verlander, Cole, Mchugh, Montero and so on...) and then be upset when other teams can do it with our (former) guys. It is somewhat interesting that other teams have been able to develop star hitters out of unheralded Astros prospects (Teo and Laureano). Just one more thing that says the Astros hitting dev methods are good, but not on the level of the pitching development. Getting solid ML average ballplayers outta Chassy Fizz, Meyers, Straw, etc is great, but if one were star level that'd be a game changer.
Looking at the pitching guys we have now, it wouldn’t surprise me if we lose a few good ones in the future. Brown, Whitley, Santos, Valdez, Javier, Jose U, Garcia, and Paredes all have potential and we probably can’t keep them all.
Chas is almost as good a hitter as Teo and a lot better of a defender. Maybe Chas fizzes out, but he's had a very surprisingly good career so far when allowed to play. Laureano...I think the question was more on defense than hitting (I'd put ding on FO more than hitting development guys) for him producing elsewhere.
Define 'lose'. There's certainly gonna be turnover in that group over time, as there would be for any group of players, but most of those guys don't fit the mold of lost in the rule 5, on waivers, or for an underwhelming trade return. Maybe Santos or Paredes.... The ML guys all have serious trade value and would require a fair package back. Framber/Javier/Urquidy all have 3 arbitration years left. Garcia has 1 year of team control and then 3 arb years. Brown and Whitley both have enough prospect shine to not get traded for peanuts. In Whitley's case, it'll be tough to find a match that prices his upside with his rocky prospect history. I wouldn't sweat losing Paredes. He couldn't beat out Seth Martinez for a BP spot. So maybe Santos?
Respectfully, Chassy Fizz ain't in the same ballpark hitting wise. Teo certainly has that high strikeout and poor defensive profile that turned off the Astros FO, but otherwise he's been an all-star level, middle of the order hitter. And he's managed to run way higher batting averages than I bet the Astros FO ever considered possible. His last three season wRC+:142, 132, 126. Chassy Fizz at best is a solid to barely above average ML hitter. The wRC+ of his two major league seasons: 108 and 115. He's a good 7,8,9 hitter but doesn't belong anywhere near the top or middle of the order.
Those Teo numbers are a little more than I expected...and yet, the difference in career wRC+ is only 10 and in 2022 is only 11. Unless Teo has been playing through injuries, those 2022 numbers are way too close for not being in the same ballpark. Even using the best time measure for Teo (last 3 years), the difference is only 20 (that 142 was 2020 and doesn't affect the numbers much). While I expect Chas will probably regress, I expect Teo will regress some as well and they end up around a difference of 15 wRC+ or less.
It might be a slight down year for Teo but the guy was a 2021 all-star and 2020 AND 2021 silver slugger. There's no way Teo and Chassy Fizz's true talent levels on the hitting side are close (at least right now). 15wRC+ in and of itself is a huge difference. That's star hitter vs solid starter difference in their range.
If 15 wRC+ is huge and 20 is not in same ballpark, how can Chas by your words be a solid to barely above average hitter and have a difference of 11 in wRC+ career above average and 15 difference this season?
This isn't to say you aren't right and Teoscar pulls away and his true talent is close to his career year in 2021. Though, Chas could end up being average. Chas could also have a good month and have a higher career wRC+ by the end of the year. For the sample sizes of 1200 PAs of good Teoscar last years and 600 or so for Chas, I expect the variances in what they produce going forward to be in the range of delta 15 wRC+ (i.e., maybe there is a true talent difference of 30, maybe it is 0).
I think the Astros should have kept every good player they've ever had and gotten rid of only the bad ones.
