If he agrees to sign that low for 3 or 4 years, he'd be one of the lowest paid starting PG's in the entire league TODAY. It would only get to be more of a ridiculous lowball contract as time went on if he even remained at the exact same level. If he "pans out" you could be looking at 30+ mil a year easily given the new nba economy.
He is also one of the worst starting PG's in the league. The pay is commensurate with output He may be batter than a few rookies or stopgaps, but he is not on the level of these other higher paid PG's. And most of those players didn't get those contracts until their age 25-26 year, and usually after obvious personal and team growth and progress. This idea that these are lowball offers for where KPJ is in his career is just not reality. There is no need right now to pay more than $10M a year without showing something a little more tangible.
Look….I’m going to make this simple. We tried to trade him in the offseason and were offered nothing more than a 2nd round pick. Assaulting coaches and driving away during games makes him lucky to be in the league. Nobody wants him therefore his current value is that of a second rounder. 3 years 21 million…same as 1st team all rookie Tate is the most he’ll get and more than he should get based on perceived value around league.
Some of you people are crazy. Don't want to consider TV/streaming contract money coming up. Clueless as to how that effects teams and how they are positioning themselves accordingly. https://www.spotrac.com/nba/rankings/point-guard/ 16) Brogdon 17) Rozier 18) VanVleet 19) Dinwiddie Is where Porter should be paid
Lmao @ comparing Porter to those 4. It's like do people even watch basketball. Vanvleet got paid after being one of the best players in that championship run. All 4 players got their contract after having great tangible seasons. It's absolute delusion to think KPJ would get paid anywhere close to that. KPJ should be paid a bit less than Markele Fultz, they are actually quite similar in terms of skill set. Pretty much all "potential" with jack of all trades skills
For him to get the kinda money you predict ($25m) or a dollar more than the MLE it has to come from a team with cap space. There's only about 3 teams who will start the offseason with enough cap space to award a contract of $25m+ and one of those would be bidding against itself in Houston (39.1m) who can simply match what anyone else offers. So - we're down to two teams - San Antonio (42.9m) & Indiana (31.5m) who have the actual cap space to give out a contract of $25m or more. No other team could offer more than $17.3m (Detroit) without clearing space and only two more teams can offer more than the MLE - OKC (12.9) & Charlotte (12.7m). Memphis is the only other team projected to come in under the cap .... and they'll have just $2.3m in actual space. So, tell us who's making KPJ an offer of $25m? Is it San Antonio or Indiana??? Or does some other team clear the decks to join the discussion?
All of those players are on playoff teams with aspirations of winning and are being paid because of their contributions toward that goal. They all got their contracts through a pretty standard NBA career trajectory. Here is when each of them received their current salary: 16) Brogdon - age 27, 3rd NBA contract 17) Rozier - age 27, 3rd NBA contract 18) VanVleet - age 26, 3rd NBA contract 19) Dinwiddie - age 28, 5th NBA contract A contract in the vicinity of what Tate received is not lowballing or disrespectful. It's just the nature of the NBA. He is still very young and has a way to go. He needs to show that he is contributing towards winning and he will be rewarded, just as the players you mentioned were.
Tate is not a facilitating point guard and on the verge of being moved to 3rd string SF behind Jabari / Tari and possibly a draft pick of Cam Whitmore or one of the Thompson twins or Dillion Mitchell. There are 3 factions of people here on this matter: Group 1..........................,........Group 2.......….............Group 3 $8M to $12M range........$15M to $19M range.........$20M to $30M range ........................,.....................I'm in this group............no one is saying pay this now Cade Cunningham makes $10M (see list) but he is on a rookie contract. The TV/Streaming money coming up is so much more vast.....but rookies are locked in at a slotted amount. By all accounts Porter jr had better stats than Cade Cunningham.....even Reggie Jackson, Tyus Jones, Patrick Beverley, Marcus Smart, Derrick White etc. Any agent worth half his weight in salt is not allowing his client named Kevin Porter Jr to accept Tate money because said agent can see the horizon of NBA basketball is bringing combo guards Big Bucks. This is how it's going to play out: 1) Porter is going to ball out and bet on himself 2) his stats will be in the neighborhood of 20+points/7+ Asts/5.5 rebounds/34+Ast% 3) the price tag will then be in excess of $20+ mil. ______________________ There is no going back in time an getting him to accept $8M -$12M or even $15M-$19M. That ship will have sailed. The Rockets will be forced to pay somewhere around $25M or risk losing him for nothing. A team doesn't have to accept a SnT.....and a SnT tends to just send back garbage player(s) back our way. In essence those wanting him to take $8M to $12M miss the bus. You don't invest in a company by just looking at the yearly earnings. You look at the quarterlies as well......and the Porter quarterlies were trending up 3rd and 4th quarters. That alone gives him $15M to $19M which is where I stand in paying him. I've mentioned that everyone wanted to draft Jalen Green at a stronger age 21.....but you had to draft him when his rights were available (age 19). Rockets have to make that same call here; speculate KPj numbers or risk losing the dude.Many CF members are not considering the TV/Streaming contract money ramifications in the equation. Therefore short changing Porter and failing to recognize the big cash payday that's coming his way. This is a common mistake by novice individuals. Lol It comes down to pay more approximately $25M or let him walk. Teams are already prepping for the big money coming and spend g on PG/Combo Guards already. I don't know what to tell you......$15M to $19M is where I stand and that would be the team discount. Under $14M is a slap in the face when knowing the money that is coming soon. Those saying $10M are expecting or getting on a regression in stats? Betting on an incident? In a contract year? I'll take those bets (against)
It depends on the risk. So many variables. Im not playing blackjack with firms that are in a hype storm usually thinking I'll jump in at whatever price point it is in the moment hoping for even more returns later - thats where people lose it all and have to start over. Conservative is good at times and others more aggressive. Rebalancing along the way. The idea of "buy low sell high" was the most common I could think of to express myself in this situation and not really aimed at my personal financial strategy just for the record just seemed easy enough to follow along to. With that said the numbers on the low end of things in these talks have gone from 8-14Ms per year for KPJ. There was already a report put out that was linked earlier in these discussions that quantified "actual" value within existing contracts and found that Houston enjoyed a GREAT value with KPJ - If I remember right they put his value around 11-12Ms per year as of last season! Do you think a 15-18M per year contract is that of a "star" in this league? Heck it doesnt even get close even before these huge role player contracts recently signed which UNDOUBTEDLY those GMs know in a year or two comes the biggest reset to the cap in NBA history. 25Ms per year will be the salary for an average player or MLE territory. Nothing that realistically could happen in this contract would even make a dent on the new cap unless it gets real goofy like HIGHER than the NY contracts which wont happen Stone is better than that. I've already made peace with the fact that KPJ could go ball out on a prove it deal this season and get paid more from another team. If things start pointing that direction say by the All Star break this guy is having his best season ever and talks between agent and Stone are not in a place that is comfortable then you trade him during the season. You have to get some kind of return. This is the toughest part of "weeding the garden" when you are in a rebuild and amass a bunch of young talent. Hopefully Stone is a great gardner and for what its worth I think it would be a mistake to get rid of Scoot. I've tried to paint the picture of an up and coming player with plenty of raw data and empirical evidence to give people some hope, but our inherit bias' tends to get in the way of these conversations - and thats ok too! We'll all find out soon enough.
Again, the reality is that no team in this league would give anything more than a second round pick for this guy as he has issues. Nobody wants him. He is our “project” player and take him away from Lucas and he would be on the streets. He won’t get more than 10 million per year unless the team is insane. It’s not his talent we’re talking about….it’s his market value.
Could you post your sources that the Rockets tried trading him but had no suitors - not even a 2nd round pick. I'd love to read about it. Im thinking your source is your good friend Eric. His market value was already assessed https://rocketswire.usatoday.com/20...ter-jr-kj-martin-alperen-sengun-lead-rockets/
Some of you may be too young to remember when Chandler Parsons was taken away from us as he was overpaid. We got lucky in finding Ariza; but Morey also went after Tyler Johnson and Kent Bazemore with $15M offers but they signed elsewhere on the same deals. Get ready to overpay on someone ladies and gentlemen. https://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/07/sports/basketball/nba-salaries-free-agents-tv-money.html I could lnk article after article on how the contracts are going to soar. But do your own homework.
You are really going to respond to a long, detailed analysis by endlessly repeating completely unsupported opinion as if it were a fact? Fortunately this will be objectively answered within a year. Until then, it is only so much noise. But, some noise is better than others, and within the cacophony of this thread, your "reality" of no one paying more than $10M is the equivalent of a cat being slowly having each of its claws slowly extracted with a rusty plier.
I think that is where the subconscious bias lies. For some KPJ is not worth the risk in any situation. Others think that a more common name perhaps on a career plateau would be better and safer even if it may not yield the best returns over the life of the contract. Risk vs reward definitely at play which is fine because that definition is subjective to everyone.
Well I think people are fooled by newspaper clippings and PR firms propping up TyTy as a Point Guard phenomenon or Scoot Henderson as well. The grass is always greener on the other side of the pasture mindset. I don't see TyTy as a good point guard and I see Scoot Henderson as a carbon copy of Josh Christopher. If people think $10M is reasonable for Kevin Porter Jr.......they are not prepared for the ridiculously outrageous contracts that are coming our way from the TV/Streaming deal. I'd rather pay the devil I know than the devil I don't know. Miles Bridges was clean before he wasn't. T Prince as an outstanding citizen.....until he was not.
Thats kind of my point. We can all debate the overall impact of KPJs stats, but there is tangible discussion to be had just within that topic both ways. Some people can extrapolate positives and some people will see that data as infringing upon their already decided bias so they block it out and focus on their order of importance. I think Henderson is an awesome prospect and gifted with some elite athleticism, but his shot is not good and I dont like his size. Scoot is every bit of 6'5 if not taller with a game based on more than just athletic ability. I like TyTy also will be eager to see what kind of pro he becomes. He's another guy who may have a chip on his shoulder and it will be interesting to see if he can tap into that for added motivation. Stone is just amassing as much talent as possible to roll with the punches if he does lose a few of the youngsters along the way in deciding the roster that will compete for championships. 25Ms per year will probably be the MLE in 2025. Everyone should let that sink in.
It really, really would be though. Tate is an outright scrub. He can't shoot, he can't create his own shot, he can't create for others, he's not really a rebounder, he's too slow to defend 1's and 2's, he's too small to defend 4's and 5's. He got a bench tier contract because he's just barely even a bench caliber player.
