Carlos Correa to the Twins - 3 Years, $105 Million

Relying on spectacular plays to determine ability is what makes bad valuations. It's trumpeting the lottery winner as millions LOSE hard earned money spending too much on the lottery. It's how a below average fielder receives Gold Gloves (Jeter) when FAR FAR superior fielders (Everett) go ignored.

I agree that Correa has the best arm of any infielder around. But that isn't all there is to fielding. The metrics just keep showing how good Pena is, even with his errors as his WAR is dominated by the dWAR portion of the calculation. I'm certain other, better defensive metrics bear this out as well.

 

How about the 2.9 dwar last year. You don't want to mention that stat to fuel your argument and evaluation? Everyone knows Carlos is the better SS. This one is simple. Pena is plummeting.

 

Here are his dWAR numbers for his career.
2015 1.1 432 PA
2016 1.6 660 PA
2017 1.6 481 PA
2018 1.9 468 PA
2019 1.4 321 PA
2020 1.0 221 PA
2021 2.9 640 PA
2022 (inc) 0.9 449 PA
Average 459 PA 1.6 dWAR

Why the hell would you base a long term contract on LAST YEAR with so much other information available?

For comparison with Pena 2022:

Correa 449 PA 3.6 WAR 3.4 oWAR 0.9 dWAR 354 OBP 434 SLG 788 OPS 128 OPS+ $35.1M

Pena 432 PA 3.8 WAR 2.3 oWAR 2.1 dWAR 285 OBP 410 SLG 696 OPS 97 OPS+ $720K

Pena has had a spectacular Rookie year for someone with the minor league disruptions of the last couple of years. The d was expected, but most thought he would have to grow into an offensive threat.

 

Actually, Correa's career dWar average is 2.3.

 

I believe Pena's learning to adjust to the breaking pitches after the book was out that usually causes a sophomore slump. I see a very bright future for him as he makes the adjustment in his rookie season.

 

Only if you manipulate the numbers to PAs he never reached. 695 PA 162 game AVG.

That's like calculating the gas mileage of a soap box Derby car.

 

Do you think he has "grown into an offensive threat"?

 

No. He started out much hotter than I expected. He's hit the Book and fatigue walls which was to be expected. But it has not slowed down his steady performance on defense. But he has shown much promise on offense as well and I hope it translates to full seasons and post seasons.

Just looking at the scouting reports about his work ethic and unexpected maturity, the idea he is ahead of the typical player in making adjustments (ie a Sophomore Slump as a Rookie) is just my gut feeling. However; I do believe adjustments and books are being made much quicker now than in the past in general.

 

I’m hoping Dusty keeps hitting him in the 2 hole for the next couple of weeks to see if that can be part of the answer this year. He for sure will get more fastballs in that spot.

 

It might help, but he has to adjust to the breaking pitches eventually. Of course, that's much easier said than done as many players learn in the minors. I'm thinking of Jordan's abbreviated attempt at baseball where he couldn't hit the breaking balls. Tremendous athlete, but hitting a breaking pitch or off speed pitch and still hit a 4 seemer is a whole different skill.

The closest I can think of is the ability to get off the line in a drag race without fouling consistently. It's the ability to adjust to what you see in fractions of a second.

 

Sure. Not disagreeing at all, but it’s worth a shot. If it makes him a better hitter in the post season and especially if he returns to the season long stats he had hitting in the 2 hole earlier in the year. If it doesn’t help it just means our lineup is not going to be as deep as in years past and, hopefully, you go to a lineup that looks something like this in the playoffs:

Altuve
Vasquez
Alvarez
Bregman
Tucker
Mancini
Diaz (alemdys)
Pena
McCormick

Gurriel should go to the bench if Diaz is healthy. When Maldy catches Pena bats second and Maldy goes to no. 9.

 

I am perfectly happy with Pena and I bet the Astros are too.

Do you think they change their minds and go back right now if they could? No.

Pena started out much better with a bat than expected and then settled back to where he should have been from the beginning.

He has made errors, which I expect him to clean up in coming years due to maturity and experience but makes more plays than all but a handful of SS in the world.

MLB pitchers and coaches have a book on him now and the rookie wall is also effecting him.

He either adjusts back or becomes Adam Everett.

I will say though: He destroys fastballs and REALLY needs to improve on other pitches.

1) hitting 2nd gives him the most fastballs if the pitcher fears the #3 hitter behind him.

2) I have heard that fastballs ( velocity and percentage thrown) increase in the playoffs. I would like to see a stat to verify that. If so Pena could be another post season performer.

 

Houston very likely could not have brought back Verlander without letting Correa go. They also would not have been able to draft Ryan Clifford. And had they signed Correa for 6+ years they probably aren’t able to do the Alvarez extension.

So yes, I think most of us would rather have Correa than Pena this season. But there’s a LOT more that went into the decision not to offer Correa the contract he wanted.

 

If you could sign Correa for 7.5 million vs penas 750k you would do it in a heartbeat. Issue isn't who is better for me, issue is is Pena better at his salary than the 35+ million it will take to sign Correa.

I didn't know anything about Pena but I have been very pleased with him. Most rookies struggle so thats expected

 

You're the 2nd person that's said Pena would get more fastballs hitting 2nd. This just isn't true. In fact, until he can prove that he can hit change ups and sliders, that's mainly what he's going to see.

 

Spoiler: Rant

What is going on in this thread that it stays bumped at the top of the Astros forum?

 

This is a fact. Even at 2 hole, he will keep getting sliders, especially if he doesn't learn to lay off them when it's out the zone.

 

I understand your point and do agree with it to a point.

It's still up to Pena to make good swing decisions.

He only gets more fastballs if he can lay off breaking balls/off speed pitches out of the zone and get into good counts.

And, I completely understand that pitchers will start him off with junk outside the zone.

But anytime he is ahead in the count the pitchers will be reluctant to risk getting him and his speed on the bases ahead of Yordan/Alex/Tucker. That means fewer pitches out of the zone and more fastballs.

Much more so than the 7th/8th/9th hitters behind him who don't scare anyone.

If Pena can reduce his chase rate even by 10% hitting 2nd he should have a very good September

 

I learned a long time ago that baseball is about adjustments. That’s the name of the game. Those that adjust to the scouting report cheat cheats, chug along; those that don’t fade way out of a roster spot.

And it doesn’t ever stop, until eventually Father Time wears even on the best of players; ensuring a retirement.

With that said, we all knew the league was going to expose Peña’s weakness and pound it. But Peña has shown he can make adjustments, though it’s taken him a while. Hopefully Peña continues to make strides, and force the scouts back to the drawing department.

If all things were equal, I would prefer to have Correa over Peña, but in the quest to build a contender, Peña allows the Astros financial flexibility to afford elite talent in other areas of the team. And that is a huge advantage.

 

Pena's ability to hit fastballs has gone down the drain in August too. In fact, he only collected three barrels in the month of August against fastballs with a week to go, with all converting into outs. They are striking him out on movement, but he's seeing nothing but fastball early in the count and he's either taking or just not getting the job done. So don't count on a bag of fastballs to change anything. Fastball through the 3rd week in August:

• .265/.286/.412, 1 HR, 22.9% K%, 2.9% BB%, .303 wOBA