I’m feeling more confident the Democrats will build on their majority in the Senate. The big IFs for the House is if inflation continue modest improvement so it becomes less of an issue and if we see more situations like with the 10 year old that had to go to another state to get an abortion that push abortion much more to the forefront.
On Inflation, I think that issue is going to fade. Supply chain data suggests things are normalizing (albeit slowly), and the comps are now with high inflation periods last year, so I think YoY inflation will drop quickly. I suspect the Fed will raise interest rates in late September one more time but change their tune more to be more dovish. Interest rates are irrelevant to this inflation problem anyway, so there's not going to be benefits to keep raising them. I think the bigger problem is the newest round of redistricting. The GOP solidified their edge further, meaning Dems probably have to outperform 2020 to even have a shot at holding the House. That said, the data in here: https://fivethirtyeight.com/feature...a-better-than-expected-midterm-for-democrats/ is pretty stunning. It's small sample sizes and lots can change in a few months, going from +2 GOP to +9 DEM in these special elections is a bit crazy. That would certainly be enough to keep the House nationally, but there's too much noise in the data and we'll be several more months removed from Dobbs, so we'll see.
Dems need to bellyache of about the 6-3 Supreme Court holding back progress and putting a notice out on all of our freedoms. Some Fox level messenging to remove middle American determination to split Congress against the president.
I hope democrats win some more so they can properly address student debt. One time handout of 10k is nothing especially for those who owe 100k+.
Hershel Walker having a legit shot to win in Georgia (even as an underdog at this point) perfectly illustrates the state of the current Republican party.
Do they even serve crudites at that Diner?? More like they serve crud, amirite fellow blue collar gourmands?
I am curious on what Biden is gonna do next if dems maintain or increase the majority in both house and senate. For all conservatives planning and rhetoric, u figured they wait until after midterm election to get rid of women's abortion rights. That might sink them
My guess is this happens closer to the election. I always felt like the student debt thing was being held back for later in the year and here it is and now I can just feel this push for legal weed happening in October. Perfect time to get something like that done.
Most likely pass a law protecting abortion on the federal level. Another shot at voters right. McConnell and others have said that Republicans retake the majority there will be a federal abortion ban bill. They will attempt to roll back some of the Biden actions. Could be a bill that doesn’t allow the President to waive student loans. At the minimum there will be a lot of investigations if the Biden Administration.
That is still a strong possibility. It’s also still possible for Oz to beat Fetterman. Things don’t look good for Republican Senate candidates but they are still within striking distance of taking the majority. Republicans still hold the edge for the House.
https://www.businessinsider.com/rep...ollowing-mastriano-confederate-uniform-2022-8 7 more Republican leaders endorse Democrat Josh Shapiro for Pennsylvania governor, following news of GOP candidate Doug Mastriano wearing a Confederate military uniform lol...the GOP base sure knows how to pick em!
No kidding. They were competing with each other to see who could be the staunchest, cruelest anti-abortion legislator even when most of the electorate doesn't want it. It'd make sense if this was primary season, but most of the primaries were already over and candidates are supposed to run for the middle to win a general election. They could have waited for the election and then pretended like the midterms gave them a mandate for draconian abortion laws. To be fair to them, they may have calculated that popular sentiment would eventually consolidate on a feeling that some abortion rights should remain and that their only chance to outlaw abortion completely was to move quickly before the opposition could organize.
Holding the house still appears to be nearly impossible. I’d actually prefer a sane GOP to hold the house but that doesn’t exist anymore. Biden still on track for impeachment
