How accurate? I don’t think when it is all said and done this group of players will be close to the worst in the league but right at this minute, this group isn’t terribly accomplished. There are the guys like Brown and possibly Leon and Diaz that are possibly going to help right away and there are some very promising very young international kids that have very high upside. Kenni Gomez for example has star potential… but the middle of the system, the guys not ready next year but not 3 years away are not very impressive and the system lacks depth at the higher levels. So while I don’t agree the Astros system is terrible, I can see why they feel that way based on a quick scan of the system. Luhnow really cut the scouting staff and relied on people like Gelles to work magic with numbers but with the draft restrictions for a few years and picking at the bottom of each round, it has been tough. It also tends to take Astros draft picks to advance. What I can say is the Astros have a lot of very interesting players from the bottom of their system to the top.
Dubin's final line was 3 innings, no runs, 1 hit, 1 walk, 4 K. Threw 39 pitches, 24 for strikes. Last 5 outings combined (one in June, before he went on the IL, plus 2 rehab games, and his 2 games back with Sugar Land) he has not surrendered a run. Probably won't see MLB action this year, but I hope to see him next year.
Is that supposed to be BB/K rate indicating excellent control? Or K/BB If he can get those numbers at the MLB level, I would agree. If he can have high SO rate and low WHIP, he's an elite high leverage reliever. But there's no time to settle in. He has to be sharp from the get go.
Ryan Clifford was assigned to Fayetteville as well. That might just be to get him in a few more competitive games since the FCL season is over, but more likely it’s where he will start next season which means he will be a big time breakout candidate.
Any ranking that has Houston in the bottom 5 farm systems in the league is likely going solely based on top tier talent (I.e. how many players an org has in the Top 100), and is ignoring both farm depth and the orgs track record for development. Houston doesn’t have any of the top 30 prospects in the league. But they have really really good depth up and down their system at every position except middl infield, and they have an excellent track record for developing talent. With those aspects factored in I would rank them in the 12-18 range, and they’re probably only 1-2 more elite prospects away from having a well above average system.
Most ranking systems seem hyper focused on the Draft giving little attention to the international draft or development. I would be interested to know what those that follow the minors think of this supposition.
30 BB and 60 SO equals 50% BB/SO rate vs 200% SO/BB rate. I would guess one is the standard, but it is confusing to those just familiar with stats. One is the inverse of the other.
I’m not sure about that. Certainly going on draft rank or bonus amount is a very easy (and honestly pretty accurate) way to rank prospects. But the amount of other research they do (talking to scouts, analyzing minor league stats, etc.) varies from site to site. I think fangraphs is pretty good about going deeper but just my gut feeling is that mlb.com doesn’t dive that deeply.
We had the worst farm system going into 2010. That system had a future HOFer, a Cy Young, and 2 other all-stars. It does mean we'll struggle to make those big trades, but it is those guys that emerge unexpectedly that really make ball clubs competitive long-term.
system rankings don't mean much if you can't develop guys. That is something the Astros have proven capable of doing.
I like looking at all the sites. I read all the scouting reports and grades, then look at the usage, promotions, age vs level and results ( primarily K and BB results for both hitters and pitchers) and come up with my own ideas and rankings trying to use as many different perspectives and sources as possible. I only look at Astros prospects unless I am considering possible trades so I have no idea how the system compares to others, just potential MLB players - future Astros. I really like Apollo for prospects info. It is usually very well written, informative, and detailed.
Very small sample size but Jacob Melton is crushing A ball. Love that kids tools, wonder if he’s just hot rn or if he’ll be a quick riser through the farm system.
It is a small sample but none of the numbers look wonky. Low k rate, reasonable babip and walk rate. Pretty encouraging so far.
You mention K Rate on almost every prospect discussion. Not questioning your knowledge. Just want to gain some insight on why you like it so much.
It's far and away the biggest statistical indicator of how somebody will fare against pitching at a higher level. If you're struggling to contact minor league pitching, it rarely gets better facing pitchers with better stuff, better command, and better scouting data. Low K rate isn't impressive so much as high k rate is a major red flag. When you are checking a prospects results, check the K rate first and then move on to the other stats if it checks out.
What @sealclubber1016 said. But also k rate is one of the first stats you can glean some value from in smaller sample sizes. Of course there are always other factors to consider, but often you can learn a lot about a hitter based on his k rate from sample sizes as low as 50 pa.
The farm system rankings are only a measure of how much expected talent is still on the farm. It is a snap shot. They don't measure a team's development capability. They don't measure how much value a team has graduated to the majors. The farm rankings are about which teams have stockpiled the most talent in the minors, and not about how much talent a team is producing each year. Rebuilding teams stockpile so that they can have a lot of talent come up at once (e.g., draft a lot of high schoolers that stick in the minors for a long time). The Astros current goal is to win games at the major league level. The Astros farm ranking isn't being propped up by high schoolers drafted 5 years ago that could still be good major leaguers. The Astros farm ranking hasn't been supplemented by trading a TOR pitcher to acquire the best 4 prospects from another team. I don't mind the low farm rankings. I doubt the Astros farm would be good at rebuilding a team from scratch. For what the Astros need, it is fine/great. I'd rather have guys in the majors.
