The incredible transformation of Justin Brooks Verlander

Verlander is 39 and sitting at 242 W.

He is on record as wanting to pitch until he is 45 and get 300 W.

If he can averagex15 W per season, he can get to 300 W in 4 years at age 43.

JV being the last ever 300 W pitcher (?) in an Astros uniform, and pitching long enough with enough success to go into the HOF in an Astros hst ( potentially) are valuable things to an organization.

That and he is much like Ryan, Clemens, and Randy Johnson who were very good well into their 40s.

I think 4 yr is an acceptable level of risk and takes most if not all other teams out of consideration.

4 yrs/$120M.

$30M AAV really helps vs CBT and allows $10M or so per season ( vs expected cost) for extra depth and signings.

Or 3yr/$105M + $15M vesting players option w/ $9M buyout. Say 75 gs or 450 IP triggers option.

Only $30AAV for cbt but he is guaranteed $114M in 3 yrs

if he has 2 very good years ( 60gs and 350 IP) but struggles as a 42 year old, he only needs 15gs or 100IP to trigger the option and guarantee himself another year to get that 300th win.

Even if he is a shadow of himself, JV at $15M will be worth it for publicity, crowds, and player development.

 

I don't what your point is. I was saying that there is no way Verlander plays for less than 35 million next year, and I think it will be closer to 40.

 

3/90. 45/35/10. 2nd and third year vests with 100 innings in year 1. Pure opt out before year 3. He could do better I’m sure.

 

I think he’s just talking- and using your post to do something creative.

 

I meant to say unless it is front loaded and has an opt out. This would satisfy that requirement. I think in his mind, he wants his salary to reflect his value. It's not about the money but more about his worth to the league. If he pitches better than Shertzer, he wants to be paid in the ball park especially if it's a short term deal. If I were a betting man, I'm thinking a contract that starts at 40 million in year 1 with some type of vesting and opt out.

 

The 40+ really hampers your flexibility if you can’t get the AAV down with opt outs. Hope he’s open to that.

 

Agreed

DD

 

I think he gets to 20 Wins before the season ends. If his primary goal (who really knows) is to reach 300 wins, then do you think an out of the box contract for 1 $44M with annual team options for years 2-5 for $30M and player options for years 2-5 with 100 IP each prior year for $25M would do the trick? Maybe waive the 100 IP if he reaches 150 IP the prior year? Is that worth more than 3-$131M to a 40 year old wanting 5 more years?

I just don't want another elite Astros pitcher going into the HOF wearing another teams cap.

 

Scenario 1. Blows his arm out in the first game like on his 2020-2021 Contract. 2023 $44M, 2024 $25M because he reaches 150 IP in 2022. Houston commitment max is $69M.

Scenario 2. Pitches well enough to reach 100 IP each year, but not at an elite level. Exercises Player options each year. 2023 $44M, 2024 $25M, 2025 $25M, 2026 $25M and 2027 $25M. $144M and 5 years to reach 300 wins (10/yr).

Scenario 3. Pitches at an elite level. $44M plus $120M years 2-5. $164M. Team exercises $30M team options.

Maybe add Cy vote incentives. $3M top 5, $4M top 3 and $5M Cy win. Cumulative ie $12M total for Cy Win.

 

Not sure I see any value in that. Most fans do not know who is in the hall and who is not, and virtually none will ever go there. It could potentially be very meaningful to the players but it is not even really entirely about them any more. I see it as a way for sports writers to make judgements about people and many of those judgements are only loosely based upon baseball.

 

I think the Astro's offer is 2 yrs for $65M and a mutual option for a third at the same AAV. The Astros have an expanding list of players that are going to have to be paid and they can not go much more than that and remain competitive.

 

Verlander is almost certainly getting 3 guaranteed years and in excess of $100M.

 

I'd say JV gets 3/120

 

I think it will be close to that considering he got 35 per year 3 years ago. I do think there will be some protection for both going into the third year.

 

I disagree. The Astros and Jim Crane have been willing to go over the CBT threshold and will again if necessary.

I think Verlander is a unicorn in the fact that Crane will spend much more and accepts expensive penalties to keep him above any other player.

It may keep players like Tucker and Framber from signing extensions until 2025 ( Yordan's extension raised his 2023 CBT salary to over $19M when it would likely be under $10M in arbitration) but I can totally see Crane going all in to the $240M payroll range for 2 years in order to keep JV.

Altuve $23.357M
Bregman $20M
Pressly $15M
Neris $8.5M
Maldonado $5M

Will all be off the books by 2025.

 

I was under the impression that Crane was one of the owners that was most against raising the CBT by a lot. I took this as unless the Astros win another World Series, he likely won't go over the CBT.

 

That may be but Crane has gone over the CBT in the past and has specifically said he would again for a chance to win.

That doesn't mean he wanted it to be raised.

 

Not sure I am ready to write off extensions for Altuve and Bregman just yet.

 

I want both of them to extend and retire as Astros.

The CBT threshold is going up to $240M in 2025 and $244 in 2026.

It will be quite tricky with ( hopefully) Tucker, Framber, Pena, Javier, etc getting to be expensive but I hope there will be enough money to keep them.

The high end top 10 prospect guys in the system now will be key to this if they are able to become good starting MLB regulars who are still cheap.