Maybe Justin Dirden can be that guy? He will probably be a high-ish K guy but he has hit at every level, and with exit velo. I honestly see a lot of Teoscar in him. Update on him: He went 2-5 today (3 BB and 2 K), both hits being doubles. The latter was of the walk-off variety.
This. Valdez is a poor defender. The only spot for at bats would be at 1st and Diaz is better. There was no way the Astros would let him start on their infield anywhere outside of 1st. Further, he is 5’9” and about to turn 25 years old. He isn’t exactly a great target to throw to as a first baseman.
The Astros low key had a potentially very strong international class. Gaston is old for where he is and is probably the least valuable of the three. He still can really take a huge step by holding his own stateside next year. Baez is a bat first guy with a lot of power in a strong hitting frame. He is producing on par or better than expected. He didn’t make more money because teams view him as a mediocre corner outfielder at best and possibly a future DH. Based on his bat alone he would have been at the top of his class. Gomez was just a sleeper. A number of teams wanted him but didn’t believe he would get bigger, hit for much power or play a premium position. He has shown an extremely rare understanding of hitting by walking as often as he strikes out at 17 years old. He also has already grown and his frame has greatly improved. He would be able to start his Junior year of HS if he were in the USA. He still struggles against LH/RH splits but it’s to be expected when you are barely 17. There are also a couple sleeper arms the Astros like.
Are there really 70 better prospects than a pitcher mowing down AAA for a team that has consistently shown it knows how to develop ToR pitchers? I find it very hard to believe that a full draft of the minor leagues by actual GMs would have him going in the 70s.
About to turn 25 in 16 more months, sure. Valdez is normal age for a AAA prospect, same as any normal college prospect would be in AAA. He's younger than many prospects in the top 100. Tyler White always had a weird swing and never lit it up like this in the minors until he was a 27 year old in AAA for his 4th year there. Josh Rojas is a much more reasonable example. Lit it up as an under the radar prospect as a 25 year old in AAA and has now become a valuable, everyday player.
In terms of value I think Valdez probably slots in between Rojas and White. Rojas hit throughout the minors but had/has a lot more defensive value than Valdez. Rojas has a much more athletic build than Valdez so it was also reasonable to project him to continue to have defensive value whereas Valdez projects to potentially lose his speed pretty quickly moving him even further down the defensive spectrum (which has happened during his minor league career). Not sure why you say Tyler White never lit it up in the minors; he didn’t post a wRC+ <130 prior to reaching AAA. Obviously the Astros FO likely knows a lot more than I do but ignoring that I think Nook’s feedback on Valdez might be slightly overly pessimistic. Having seen Valdez play in person a few times I think he could end up playing an adequate 2B or LF every day and if he’s in a utility role I don’t think he’d be that bad at 1B or 3B for 10-20 games a year. Defense won’t be his calling card but I don’t think he will be unplayable. So a league average bat who can do that defensively has value. Of course the risk that he fully carries over his 2022 offense to the big leagues is big, as that would make him a star level player, but I think we can be confident that the Astros are smart enough to avoid trading a player with that potential away for a rental backup catcher.
No, probably not but that is how the commercial prospect ranking system works unfortuantely. A lot of biases.
I love that as recently as the All Star break there were some places that didn’t have Valdez in our top 30 and now he’s in Boston for a week and he’s a top 100 guy. Awesomeness. The Astros keep developing unranked major leaguers many of which have well above average rookie seasons while nobody has given them any hype. We probably shouldn’t worry so much about the rankings until that kind of thing stops happening once or twice a year with the Astros.
Where do you want Valdez to play on the field with his poor glove? Tyler White also lit it up in the minors very early on. He also was 24 years old, in his second full season in the minors when he destroyed pitching in AAA. White, like Valdez struggled to play consistently at the big league level because of his glove. Josh Rojas is a success story, but even he hasn't been an average MLB player until this season, and even this season isn't lighting the world on fire. It is possible that Valdez becomes a guy that has some 2-3 WAR seasons, but the Astros have other similar guys in the organization.
MLB.com updated their top 30: https://www.mlb.com/prospects/astros/ 3 of their top 8 prospects were 2022 draftees. One interesting note is that there are only 3 infielders on the entire list (Cristian Gonzalez, Joe Perez, and David Hensley). There are 12 OF, 2 C, and 13 P (all righties), I think I’d like to see Whitaker tried extensively at 3B next season.
So tell me about Dirden. Haven't really paid attention to him but he appears to hit the snot out of the ball. Can he play decent outfield?
Doesn't seem like a bad list. I'm pretty skeptical of Joe Perez, but that might just be me. The Ullola and Santa write ups seemed really positive. Santa looked to be one of the most interesting pitchers slated for A ball before being injured. Apparently the injury was tricep soreness, and he hit 102 in the FCL after his layoff. If he can stay healthy he's a potentially huge arrow up guy next season. Ullola's fastball apparently has the vertical action the Astros like, and they compared him to Javier. I'll remain skeptical about his fastball playing that well, but he might throw harder.
Leon should absolutely be a top 100 guy. I don’t understand these guys. When a guy is mashing it’s like- where are his tools- and when a guy has tools it’s like- where are his numbers. You don’t have an 80 grade arm, fast, and light tower power and not be a top 100 guy. It’s stupid. And his numbers have been trending upwards while controlling the zone a little better. Enough you dumbasses- put Leon in the top 100. and while you are at it out Brown in the top 30. The Astros have 6 of the best 75 pitchers in the world on their major league staff. We know what that looks like organizationally. And we wouldn’t trade Brown at the deadline and were entertaining offers for our starting pitchers because we believe Brown is one of them. That’s a top 30 guy not me 71 on the list. I think Diaz and Gilbert should be top 100 too btw, but I’m not going to bang in the table as much over those two as Leon and Brown.
Speaking of Miguel Ullola, he had a bit of a rough night: 2.2 IP, 5 H (4 singles and a solo HR), 5 ER, 3 BB, 6 K
Valente Bellozo pitched well for Fayetteville but had to take the loss: 5 IP, 3 H, ER (on a bases-loaded walk), 2 BB, K
