I have been working on the August update of my Most Valuable prospects list. I do them twice each year in March and August. It is almost complete but I noticed a trend that has been developing over the last several updates becoming even more obvious. It has not been too long (like about ten years ago) that Rookies rarely made my lists. Over time they have gradually become more and more common and on this update they make up almost a third of the list. I have been thinking that this was the result of the overall decline of the Astros minor league system. A friend pointed out to me that it looked odd so I have spent some time thinking about it. I was concerned that I was developing a bias of some kind or that there might be some reason that my conclusions had become unbalanced. All I have at this point is that as the team has matured and improved the necessity for crowding the best prospects in close proximity to the majors has become less important. Now it seems that a few prospects a year coming through the system is far more important than having a lot of them in the high minors because there are quality players on the team that do not need to be replaced often. Could this all be the natural progression of a minor league system in an organization that has come from poor to premium over those same years? I would like to think that my more balanced lists are a fair representation of the state of the Astros system. Anyway I would welcome some additional thoughts if any of you can offer them.
Down in the Dominican, Jose Guedez threw 5 scoreless innings for the Orange team in a game that originally started on July 28. He allowed two hits and struck out four, lowering his ERA to 0.48 in six appearances (two starts). Guedez turns 21 in September, so he's most likely just a guy. Then again, the Astros don't seem to mind having old pitchers in the DSL.
Would be very cool to see Gilbert tear up A-ball, haven't been this excited about a prospect since Alvarez/Whitley before the suspensions.
I believe the 6'7" on McGowan. Whitaker getting to his power lately is a nice development. He's clearly still a project, but sometimes those go well. I'd guess there's a better success rate with international pitching prospects signed at age 19+ for the Astros than the ones who sign at 16-17, at least in recent years. The Astros are more willing than most teams to take a chance on older players, but they still have to show something to get noticed.
Whitaker is still striking out at an embarrassing clip (9 k in 23 August ab) but he’s having by far his best month of the season and is looking to end the year with 4 consecutive months of increasing ops. Like you said he’s a project and the red flags are still flying but nevertheless he will be a breakout candidate next season.
Looking like Hensley, Julks, and Diaz are all surefire guys that will be added to the 40 man for Rule 5 protection.
Hensley is a sneaky good base stealer, too. He swiped three more today (18 total), and two of the three steals were of third. Dirden had a 3-5 day, with two doubles and two RBI.
He is pompous and conceited and the act is wearing thin. 99% of people would not make the mistake he has made and continues to make for over half a decade. If he makes it, it will be in-spite of himself. He has the same issues Mark Prior and Trevor Bauer had. He thinks he is vastly smarter and superior than everyone regardless of performance. Nolan Ryan, Roger Clemens and Justin Verlander all have spent time with him and gave him advice and it held no weight. He has had Brent Strom in the past call him almost daily and he wouldn’t listen or return voicemails (allegedly). His own father told him to listen - nope… Forrest knows best.
From what I understand, he isn’t a jerk to his teammates as much as he just keeps to himself and has his own thing going on. As a pitcher it won’t be a big problem. The problem will come if he doesn’t keep his opinions to himself with the media. The Astros are hoping he really bonds with Miller.
Off topic but if Meyers continues to struggle, any chance Lewis Brinson gets called up? No idea about his defense but his bat is on fire and his season overall looks good. Has MLB experience and yeah he struggled but curious to see if the Astros minor league coaches fixed him.
Hensley is getting interesting as a prospect. He is trending as a better and better hitter in regards to plate discipline. Still needs to work on that swing and miss problem he has. Has some serious pop!
It's interesting that he has this kind of mindset. I would have thought that would be a huge red flag prior to the Astros drafting him. I mean, sure he had success pre-draft, but that kind of attitude had to have been there with his HS coaches, who I would assume the Astros scouts talked to prior to them deciding to draft him. I guess at that point he is still a teenager so they talk themselves into thinking he will mature in a year or two? What was the team's opinion of him at draft time?
I think 18-19 year old Whitley was arrogant and unwilling to accept advice earlier in his career, although the injuries and setbacks have humbled him, in my opinion. I think his mindset now is very different than it was 4 years ago when Brent was calling him regularly. In some respects, his setbacks could ultimately strengthen him and make him a better pro. He has physical advantages that simply cannot be replicated and once his mental game levels up to a true professional level, then watch out. I'd love to see Whitley up with the Astros this year for no other reason than to spend time observing and learning from Verlander. I remain very high on Whitley and expect him to be a TOR starter in the league.
