Gurriel has turned it up a notch over the last two months, hitting .240 in June and .260 in July. I see Click standing pat at first base, unless he can get a sweetheart deal for Bell. Bet we add a backup catcher and address first base with a winter free agency signing. Would be nice to have more of a long term upgrade in CF. Meyers and McCormick both seem like fourth outfielders to me. Not sure there are any studs with team control at CF worth trading for though (at a reasonable trade cost).
This is my ideal scenario not involving breaking the bank. That shouldn’t cost much more than 4 guys mostly between 10-20. Trade Maton and Odo and you could get pretty comparable value back I would think. Activate LMJ, promote Brown and you have your playoff staff ready to go. You actually have one more pitcher than you need in the playoffs, maybe two. Which is ok as attrition for pitchers is no minor thing.
All of the trade scenarios, and I have not seen Enoil Paredes's name mentioned. He is sporting a 1.23 ERA in Sugarland. Does he have trade value. I would suspect he is under team control for quite a few years.
Regardless of Yuli hitting better he is still below standard 1B expected production. This was not an issue Springer, Correa, and a healthy Brantley but in 2023 its glaring. The lineup simply needs more run production, especially with Meyers clearly not 100% recovered, Brantley's health in question, and Yordan needing regular rest for his hand. As for Meyers and McCormick I agree that they are both 4th OF types but very good ones. I assume that it will take until next season for Jake's shoulder to recover fully and his power/throwing to return. That's just life and baseball. I expect him to be much better next year. Unless they get a bat than can play LF and/or CF at the deadline the team will need to rely on both of them the rest of the season. If they do I think they should send Jake back to AAA until next season when he is more like 2021 Jake.
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2022-trade-value-21-to-30/ Framber at 28, after Garcia came in at 44. Tucker, Pena, and Alvarez are likely to be in the top 20. Surprised that Altuve and Javier didn’t get an honorable mention.
I'm sure he has some trade value, but you aren't going to get a lot for him. He has glowing numbers in AAA but the Astros are not happy with his command of the strike zone. If he stops walking so many guys, he can be a closer.
I think it’s pretty clear now that CF is a glaring hole. Especially for World Series contention. I think you could live with Yuli at first and ride it out IF you didn’t have such a hole at CF. I think Click and the Astros brass are realizing this and that’s why you see us linked so much to Bell. Bell gives you more hitting than arguably any outfield prospect on the market (other than Soto which we’re not getting). So in essence you have to live with Meyers/McCormick in Center while upgrading the next most feasible option which is putting Bell at 1st and having Yuli your number 1 bench option/occasional DH. Personally I would LOVE to see a trade for like a Benitendi AND Bell. Probably a pipe dream but you never know. Either way it’s clear we have to get another bat. Non debatable IMO. The question then becomes, how much is a World Series championship worth?? If you gotta overpay a little bit Click then so be it.
I think if Javier maintains his current production he should be on the list next season. Projections still seem a little skeptical of his breakout.
That stuff is so subjective. I appreciate the effort that they make and I respect that site a lot. While they are better than most, they are still wrong a lot. Christian Javier is already a better pitcher than Luis Garcia, even with Garcia having an extra year of control. Mookie Betts is not that good once his salary is figured in......... I will take Valdez at his salary with arbitration raises, and subtract it from the money Betts gets and end up with Valdez and a free agent that will contribute to winning more than just Betts at his salary.
The “Best lineup of all time by far” scenario: 2B Altuve 1B Bell (for Whitley and Cerny) DH Alvarez C Contreras (for Diaz and Solomon) LF Martinez (for Barber and Matijevic) RF Tucker 3B Bregman SS Pena CF McCormick Bench: Dubon, Maldonado, Brantley, Gurriel Aledmys Diaz and Castro would be cut loose. Meyers would be optioned (assuming Brantley comes back healthy).
Advanced stats haven't known what to do with a lot of Astros pitchers and that is why they haven't traditionally been ranked higher by commercial publications. We went through this with Valdez and Garcia as well. Garcia has excellent movement and play off of his secondary pitches, but has a pedestrian fastball. When he cannot set up his fastball with his secondary pitches, he can give up homers. Valdez doesn't have elite strike out numbers and he walks too many hitters. Advanced statistics did not believe that he would ever be able to keep the ball on the ground like he has. He makes up for his walks with few hits, and a lot of double plays. As for Christian Javier, he has been two pitchers this year (as has been the trend since he came up). Javier this season has made 14 starts and come out of the pen a total of 4 times. In his 14 starts he has had three games where he has given up 5 or more runs (17 runs in 12 innings). In his other 11 starts and three relief appearances he has given up a total of 12 runs in 71 innings. So, like prior years 80% of the time he takes the mound he is an ace (1.60 era) and the other 20% of the time he shouldn't play professional baseball (13.50 era). He has always been a pitcher that outperforms his FIP because of his array of pitchers. The prior two seasons he had a cumulative FIP of 4.6 and an ERA of 3.5. This year his FIP is 3.20 and his ERA is 3.13. He has had some bad luck, and really probably should have an ERA closer to 2.60. A lot of his stats point to dominance..... he is striking out almost 13 batters per 9 innings, he is giving up less than 6 hits per nine innings and he has continued to cut down on home runs. Until Christian Javier cuts his "poor starts" down to a more reasonable number, there will be some doubts about how good he will end up.... but almost all of the measures show a pitcher with a chance to become dominant with some doable changes, and that doesn't even get into him being in the pen when he should have been starting, or that he isn't throwing two of his pitches currently.
Yep, agree with this. From Click's standpoint, he needs to fill holes on the roster next year for both Brantley and Yuli. I suspect he is much more interested in trading for a player with team control than a rental, if he trades for either 1B or OF. It would cost quite a bit to replace both of those guys next year with top tier free agents. That's why I don't see a trade for Bell or Benintendi, although both would be nice to see on the Astros playoff roster. Knowing that the Astros are cheap and love team control, I bet they go after someone like Hays or Mullins from the Orioles, or Bryan Reynolds from the Pirates.
Javier is crazy. He looks like prime Pedro Martinez on most nights, but then looks like Jose Lima at Enron.
He’s had arguably the biggest breakout this season with Yordan. He’s flashed a ceiling I didn’t think he had in him.
I don't want to derail the thread over this but I have a big problem with these rankings. If I put player A's stats next to player B's stats without a name attached and guessed which one of them would come back with a better ranking, all would say player A. Player A leads in every stat this year. But yet I know player B will be higher in the rankings. So when they release the next level of value and they have Louis Castillo the player B ranked ahead of player A which is Framber Valdez, go look at the stats from this year and controllable years on contract. No way Castillo has more value, especially with the controllable years.
I agree with you that the lineup is 1-2 run producers short. However Meyers ( and McCormick) have played exceptionally in CF. Jake's arm is a noodle this year but they both run everything down. Defense is not the issue even if it is a step down from previous years. In the past the team has had run production throughout the lineup. SS and CF produced more than usual for the position which allowed the team to have a 1B and C that were less than league average without hurting the team ( and actually helping the team's defense that was recently top 3 consistently) With the team down to 6-8 in defense ( depending on source and metric) the team is no longer getting the benefit of having a lighter hitter in those positions. Furthermore, run production is also down making it more important than ever to gain some more offense if this team wants to win. I divide run production into 3 categories, based on OPS. Under 700 is - , 700- 799 is E , and 800+ is +. Simple. Since 2016, they have had 2 hitters under 700 only in 2016 and 2020. ( Straw was in 2021 but replaced by McCormick/ Meyers by playoffs) their 2 worst seasons in that span. This year Maldy, Yuli, and Meyers are under 700. Each year they went to the WS they have had at least 5 of 9 hitters at 800+. This year they have 3. If you give +1 to 800+, and -1 to under 700 here are the annual scores for top 9 hitters. 2015 +1 2016 +1 2017 +6 2018 +2 2019 +7 2020 +1 2021 +3 (+4 after Straw) 2023 +1 ( 0 w Brantley hurt) Clearly the team needs to add at least 1 800+ OPS bat if it wants to go back to the WS. FYI Yuli is one of the-1 OPS under 700 so 1 800+ bat at 1B adds +2 to the lineup.
The Astros will have holes to fill, the biggest one being at the top of the rotation unless they pay Verlander a lot of money. The reality is that the advantage to rental players is that they do not cost a lot in trade, and you always have the option to re-sign them. The Astros are basically set in their rotation other than a #1.... in the pen they will need a closer..... and on the field they will need a 1st baseman, a left fielder and possibly a center fielder. The Astros will likely fill their outfield need internally or sign a player on a very short contract. They know that Meyers is hurt, they also have Leon and McCormick available. Drew Gilbert is also likely to be ready relatively soon. They also have Barber and Melton who can play centerfield. As for the top of the rotation, I am sure that is likely why they are trying to get Castillo from the Reds.... and if they strike out on Castillo and Verlander, they may get enough internal improvement from Javier to have an ace emerge internally. As for 1st base, they know that they can shuffle most prospects to that position if necessary. However if you look at the 1st base market, there are a few guys that make really big money like Freeman, Goldschmidt, Votto and Hosmer. However Freeman and Goldschmidt are clearly above Josh Bell. Freeman signed coming off of an MVP and Goldschmidt may win one this year - and both players are on track for near HOF careers. Votto and Hosmer signed their deals in a different era. Abreu makes 19 million this season, but he is a former MVP as well. The guys making 15-16 million a year are Belt, Rizzo and Olson. Belt was an over pay back in 2017. Olson just signed a long term deal at about 20 million a year coming off a 900 OPS season at 27 years old where he hit 39 homers with 111 RBI and almost 6 WAR. Rizzo signed a 2/32 contract with the Yankees. He is on pace for nearly 40 homers this year, after averaging 30 homers a year the last decade and having a lot of MVP votes. Josh Bell is going to be 30 years old as a free agent. While he has improved defensively at 1st, his glove isn't viewed as a plus. He hits a lot of ground balls which result in lower homer rates and a lot of double plays. He has hit in an MLB high 40 double plays the last two years. My point is that while it is possible that someone decides to drop 3/50 for Bell, it is also possible that he doesn't get a deal north over 14-15 million over multiple years. The market will also have Jose Abreu available as a free agent, and teams wanting a first baseman will likely try to sign him over Bell based on production and reputation. The Astros are paying Yuli Gurriel only $8,000,000 this year coming off a batting title a gold glove and an 8.50 OPS season (granted he is old). My point is, there are a lot of scenarios where the Astros could end up signing Josh Bell this winter and not have it really disrupt the budget and let the Astros fill their other holes internally. There is no first baseman in the minors knocking on the door, unless you are resigned to the fact that Yainer Diaz isn't going to be a catcher. The good news is that after a slow start Diaz is absolutely crushing it in AAA, he made a few minor adjustments to his swing plane and has unleashed massive power while sacrificing some batting average.
