I'm not high on Cerny but Whitley will either be forgotten by Astros fans forever or will become Verlander 2.0 and the trade will live in infamy.
It’s probably much lower than that. But if that 5% chance hits then Houston would be trading $150M+ in value for 1/2 a season of Josh Bell.
I personally wouldn’t do Whitley and Cerny for Bell. However the Astros interest is legitimate and there are some concerns about wanting another bat. At the end of the day the Astros player development and scouting department are excellent. If they favor the trade then I would do it. Cerny has some what limited upside but has a 50/50 chance of being a solid big leaguer. Whitley will end up living in the dessert’s of New Mexico working as a short order cook or he will make a couple hundred million dollars playing baseball.
Appel never showed the kind of talent Whitley has flashed in the minors. Not even close. Not that there isn't a good chance that Whitley never pitches a MLB inning though.
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/examining-the-american-leagues-2022-40-man-crunch/ In addition to having few/no glaring holes on the big league roster and some financial flexibility, the Astros also appear to have another advantage over most other teams in the league: 40 man roster flexibility. They have a couple of prospects they’ll have to add to protect from the rule 5 draft, but overall they aren’t facing a roster crunch that would force them to sell low on any prospects or avoid acquiring optionable players. This was a factor in Houston trading out Straw and adding Maton and Diaz (who is rule 5 eligible).
If Javier goes it better be for a guy who's already a star player as Javier has been playing exceptionally well this season. For instance, since May 1 Javier is sixth among MLB starters (min 1000 pitches thrown) in xwOBA. Unreal upside there.
Man I’ve been banging the drum on riding the entire Whitley roller coaster all the way through since it has that greater than zero chance where he ends up an ace, multi time all star and maybe HOFer (think Scherzer as the wet dream comparison) but at least here you’d be getting a really good bat that’s definitely needed. If Click trades Yuli I’m convinced it has nothing to do with money- he feels like he has to do it to stop Dusty from playing Yuli instead of Bell or whoever else is brought in. Because Dusty is an obstinant ass with the lineup card. See Straw, Miles vs McCormick, Chas last year. I’m actually in favor of getting rid of Yuli for this reason and opposed to getting a left handed reliever for the same reason. Don’t give Dusty toys he can spin into sub optimal situations. Save him from himself. I’d do the deal but only after I begged them to let me substitute someone else. Like Bielak and Solomon. Which they probably wouldn’t do. But those guys will probably have more success in the majors.
He wouldn’t leave for Bell. He would depart for a Castillo/Soto type player with years left on contract
Agreed completely. I’d have a hard time giving up much more than Javier for Castillo. He’s got 2 more years of club control than Castillo and he might be just as good as Castillo the rest of this year and next year. mid do the deal as the Astros bc he is more trustworthy about giving you innings I think but holy hell, that better not be one piece but rather the vast vast majority of the package. Like- maybe Siri, but I wouldn’t love that. If we have to add any of our top 10 prospects I’d probably say no. Unless we can work out an extension with Castillo.
I'd be hesitant to move him for Castillo although that might be the cost. Javier has been arguably as good as Castillo this season and is significantly younger with two more years of control. I would give up Garcia though.
That would be my preference as well. The argument for Castillo is he’s got a higher floor and he’s much less likely to throw 100 pitches in 3.1 innings in October and leave you in serious trouble because he can’t give you the length (that’s what she said).
There’s also a decent chance that the reds might prefer Garcia. They are cheap and he’s got another year of working for minimum wage and Javier doesn’t.
I’d rather trade Garcia than Javier. And if either are traded it should be for a bonafide star with multiple years of control. I would not trade Javier for Castillo straight up. And Garcia straight up for Castillo sounds fair.
