Cost of Soto more than the cost of Castillo and Benintendi? I assume yes. Castillo/Benintendi seems much better than Soto.
To be clear, the concern as I understand it, is primarily long term money. They don’t mind paying a lot to a player year by year. The issue with Verlander is that he (as last I heard) wants a 4 year deal. That is a massive commitment for the Astros for a pitcher his age. Having said that, he likely gets it from someone because he is throwing 99 mph with an era well below 2.00 and has a 50/50 shot at winning the Cy Young.
You are willing to give him 4/144? He wants 4 years. I’m sure right now Crane and Click wish they had upped his base salary last year enough to turn his player option into a team option.
If I learning anything concrete and interesting I will share it. On the bright side Astros fans should just enjoy what they have… nearly 100 games into the season and the Astros are on pace to win 108 games. Lance McCullers will likely be back, Jake Meyers is still rounding into shape and there is some hope for Brantley. While there are some concerns in the mid levels of the minors, there are players like Brown and Diaz that the team views as long term players. The Astros are 56-23 in their last 79 ball games.
I think that a starter must go to add Castillo. Only so many starts/innings to go around The young starting pitchers are the most valuable pieces the Astros have. And if they want him ( and they should for their own improvement AND to keep him from Yankmees) they will need to give up a package that hurts. Garcia should be more than enough by himself d But he's not. He is, however, just as attractive as Peraza. I would offer Garcia, Barber, Corey Julkes, and Justin Dirden. What I see and read is the Reds are happy with pitching and infield prospects in their system but are weak in OF prospects. Reds get a starting pitcher who is already a #3 with #2 potential and controllable for 4 more seasons. A 3 very high floor OF prospects who should be ready for MLB various times between now and 1 1/2 years from now. Astros still have the 2 OF drafted 1-2 this year, Leon, Whitaker, Hamilton, Brewer, Cerny, Abreu, and the rookie ball guys like Abreu Gaston and Baez so can afford to trade all 3.
I think Crane views JV as a completely separate case than anyone else. He will do everything to retain him regardless of payroll and how deep SP are on the roster. I completely expect JV to be back in 2023, 2024. And possibly longer.
I want the Astros to be in on Castillo because I think he’s the type of pitcher they might be able to level up. But as is, he’s not what I would consider a dominant starter and looking at Framber, McCullers, and hell even Javier I’m not sure Castillo presents a meaningful upgrade. So based on that I think Castillo holds a lot more value to a team with a shallow rotation who needs help securing a playoff berth more than to a team like the Astros or Yankees who are just looking for upgrades to impact individual playoff games. So if the price ends up getting high enough to include multiple top 100 guys then I’m fine with Houston moving on. I think upgrading the bench bat (or 1B/LF depending on how you wanna look at it) is where Houston might find value, along with the bullpen. The distance from Framber or Lance to Castillo isn’t that great, whereas the distance between Matijevic and an established hitter or between Seth Martinez and an elite lefty reliever with the World Series on the line is pretty substantial relative to the expected cost.
Verlander didn’t really give the Astros any breaks last year on his deal and Crane could have given Verlander a longer deal and didn’t. I hope Verlander comes back but he has likely played himself into a contract over 100 million dollars next season and I am not sure Crane will take that risk. Now, not having someone like Castillo on the team means it will hurt the Astros more to let him walk, so it will be interesting to see how it plays out. Crane has talked before about wanting Verlander part of the organization long after he retires, but JV doesn’t seem to be the overly sentimental type.
Although he’s not overly sentimental, I think he values continuity and probably doesn’t like change. He didn’t want out of Detroit and then he came back here when he didn’t have to (and signed the extension when he didn’t have to). My bet is the Astros just have to pay him a reasonable approximation of market value and he comes back. That market value is obviously going up. 3 for 100 with a vesting option for year 4. Plus a handshake that we will extend him out as long as he wants to pitch year by year and have him as a part of the organization into retirement.
I personally don't think this year, Castillo presents a meaningful-enough upgrade. Given what the Twins got for Berrios, I expect Castillo to demand something similar and I don't think he's a big enough upgrade over Verlander-Valdez-McCullers-Javier (who I am especially high on). One or maybe two more bats, and another high leverage reliever are the better places to improve. We can always see who is on the trade block in the offseason if JV does not re-sign.
In the event they don’t get Castillo I consider it pretty likely Brown is still in the organization, and I’m more than fine opening next season with a 6 man rotation of Framber, McCullers, Javier, Garcia, Brown, and Urquidy (and that’s assuming Odorizzi is gone). They can always go overpay for a SP at next years deadline, after they’ve had another year to develop prospects and reap the benefits of having another full slate of draft picks.
What are you looking at? 17.9 bWAR in 136 games ( all started) averaging 6 innings per start. .226 career avg against .667 career OPS against 9.8 career K/9 3.0 career K/BB- 1.206 career WHIP 3.69 career FIP Slightly better in avg and OPS against than McCullers Slightly better than Verlander in Ks per 9. Would be in top 2 or 3 vs all 7 of Astros current starters in every catagory And better in all those this year. These are top 10 in the league All-Star numbers.
He wants to pitch until he's 45. That's 6 years. Give him 6 years and $150M Lower AAV and insurance will cover most of anything he can't earn if he breaks down. But after what I have seen this year I would not bet against him pitching 6 more years.
I think we are in on Castillo. Also in on Bell. What's its gonna cost to get there who knows? But it's a wait and see thing. As for Verlander he is gonna do what he wants to do. Crane showed him loyalty at that goes along way for aging players. I can see him riding it out as an Astro. But can easily see him riding I to the sunset. Especially after this year
