One person's opinion ... Logistics Collapse Ukraine is likely going to end in very Russian way. It’s starting to look like the armies of Vladimir Putin will go home on foot, leaving a lot of equipment behind. Why? They are facing a logistics collapse like that seen by the armies of the Tzar in 1917, after the Summer offensive. First, a tad of background. Because we have seen signals of this since the beginning of the war. If the Russian plan had worked, and they took Kyiv in three days, we would not have noticed these systemic problems with the Russian army. But now we do, and have. This came from Major General Kyrylo Budanov, Ukraine's Intel chief. He was rather specific in the interview with Sky News: General Budanov correctly predicted when the Russian invasion would happen when others in his government were publicly sceptical and now says he is confident about predicting its conclusion. ”The breaking point will be in the second part of August. ”Most of the active combat actions will have finished by the end of this year. ”As a result, we will renew Ukrainian power in all our territories that we have lost including Donbas and the Crimea.”
It's an International Law certificate at UGA law school. It's a brand new program, so I think the classes change from time to time. It's an extra semester for me and should open some doors.
That would be good if that actually happens but Russia has shortened their supply lines and much of the Donbas population supports Russia. From what I’m seeing the war seems more stalemated.
I think that the Russians had to do a "operational pause", just to restructure their supply lines, since ~10 of their behind-the-lines supply depots got cooked to the ground. The Russians had to build new supply depots further from the front lines and out of the Ukraine's HIMRS range. Increasing the distance from the supply depots to the front lines means either the supplies take longer to make the trip or that Russians increase the number of supply vehicles. The former is more likely than the latter. The article I posted might be pysops from the Ukrainians. It repeats themes that we heard before. The Russian Army is terrible at logistics, has a serious morale problem, has military equipment that is poorly made and maintained, will lose the war of attrition, etc. It is hard to separate the truth from the lies. At this point, I would not be surprised how this war ends. The only thing I am confident about is that win or lose the Russian military will have paid a very high price for what will likely be small gains in territory.
Yes the Russians have paid a very large price for marginal gains. Further the Russian bear has been exposed as more of circus animal than a fearsome predator. I will say it again but Putin's strategic position is far weaker now than it was in February.
Russia about to 'run out of steam' in Ukraine, British spy chief says Russia's military is likely to start an operational pause of some kind in Ukraine in the coming weeks, giving Kyiv a key opportunity to strike back, Britain's spy chief said on Thursday. Richard Moore, chief of the Secret Intelligence Service (SIS) known as MI6, also estimated that about 15,000 Russian troops had been killed so far in its war in Ukraine, adding that was "probably a conservative estimate." "I think they're about to run out of steam," Moore said, addressing the Aspen Security Forum in Colorado, adding that the Russian military would increasingly find it difficult to supply manpower and materiel over the next few weeks. "They will have to pause in some way, and that will give the Ukrainians opportunities to strike back." Nearly five months since Russia invaded Ukraine, Kyiv hopes that Western weapons, especially longer-range missiles such as U.S. HIMARS which Kyiv has deployed in recent weeks, will allow it to launch a counterattack in coming weeks and recapture Russian-occupied territory. Moore underscored the need for Ukraine to show the war was winnable -- both to preserve high Ukrainian morale but also to stiffen the resolve of the West as concerns mount about European energy shortages during the coming winter. "It's important, I think, to the Ukrainians themselves that they demonstrate their ability to strike back. And I think that will be very important for their continuing high morale," Moore said. "I also think, to be honest, it will be an important reminder to the rest of Europe that this is a winnable campaign by the Ukrainians. Because we are about to go into a pretty tough winter and ... I don't want it to sound like a character from 'Game of Thrones.' But winter is coming. "And clearly in that atmosphere with the sort of pressure on gas supplies and all the rest, we're in for a tough time," Moore said. The prospect of a Russian disruption of European energy supplies is one of the biggest global economic and political risks arising from the war. European countries fear they could face shortages next winter, if Russia cuts back deliveries during warm months when they typically replenish storage tanks. Moore said the toll from Russian President Vladimir Putin's war in Ukraine was mainly being felt in poorer, rural communities, and that Putin was not yet recruiting forces for the conflict from middle-class areas of St. Petersburg or Moscow. "These are poor kids from rural parts of Russia. They're from blue-collar towns in Siberia. They are disproportionately from ethnic minorities. And these are his cannon fodder," Moore said.
I'll take any reports with a grain of salt, but would def welcome some undeniable collapse or credible peace talks by November.
Pretty sure Russia's going to drag it out at least until winter then cut off gas to Europe and try blackmail. I wouldn't expect anything to end before then. It may slow way down, but I expect they view gas supply as their ace in the hole, and I dont expect theyll give up before trying to play that card.
Yeah, it wouldn't surprise me if Zelensky had 100-300 million stashed around in case he had to flee the country.
Great update by veteran Artilleryman Markos Moulitsas aka kos - great to get a former enlisted man reporting up rather than the armchair Clausewitzes out there, amirite @basso ? https://m.dailykos.com/stories/2022...sa-They-re-already-out-of-steam-in-the-Donbas Russia has now stalled for over two weeks, with dwindling sign of life. Is this the culmination we’ve all been waiting for, the point when Russia runs out of steam and is forced to shift from offensive to defensive operations? We won’t know for sure for a few more weeks, but it sure does look that way Tl;dr - Russia is pretty much stuck and about to spend a lot of time on defense
I largely said this to my classmates when it first started. Russia's MO is similar to Georgia and what I also expect to see with regard to Moldova. Annex as much of friendly, Russian speaking territory as possible. The scars of the Afghanistan invasion are still very real in Russian society, and Russia also just watched the US struggle to fight insurgencies in Iraq and Afghanistan. All of that is part of their calculus. An interesting thread worth tugging on is the use of Africans and Syrians in the war. In some ways, CAR and Syria are part of a neo-Soviet Union as far as miltiary needs go. I wouldn't be surprised if Russia starts recruiting Tajiks, Kyrgyz, Kazakhs, and Uzbek migrants as well.
That's a pretty safe bet except for one possible wild card. Ukraine might be able to take back much of the southern gains Russia has made and threaten to cut off Crimea, even threaten Crimea itself. What would help? The Kerch Strait Bridge Russia built is a target just begging to be hit by HIMARS rockets if they get within range. It's strongly built, but could be heavily damaged by the highly accurate HIMARS. Were Russia forced to rely more on supplying Crimea by sea, Ukrainian anti-ship missiles could come into play. Russia's military, and Putin, have to be very worried about the possibility, in my opinion. An excerpt from Forbes: The Kerch Strait bridge connecting Russia with the Crimea is extremely important, both strategically and politically. Stretching for more than ten miles, it is the longest bridge in Europe, and was constructed after Russia’s illegal annexation of Crimea and opened in 2018 at a cost of over $3 billion. Putin himself drove a truck across to open it. It is a huge and obvious target for a Ukrainian strike, and now seems to be under threat with a new doomsday clock supposedly counting down to the bridge’s destruction. This picture taken on December 23, 2019, shows the Crimean Bridge that spans the Kerch Strait, a narrow strip that links the Azov and Black seas. - The Russian President on December 23, 2019 stood in the driver's cabin of a train for the official opening of a railway bridge that links annexed Crimea to southern Russia. (Photo by Alexey NIKOLSKY / SPUTNIK / AFP) https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidh...ssias-vital-bridge-to-crimea/?sh=19a8d7805d77
I'm sure Markos knows much more about trigonometry than I ever will, but he apparently knows little about Russia, and even less about WW2 on the eastern front. or for that matter, Tannenberg or other eastern front battles in WW1. material losses mean nothing to the Russians. losses of men mean even less. The Ukrainians have performed very well, and deserve all the help they've been given. but with out additional manpower, the weight of Russian arms will eventually begin to be felt. it will just take time. but for the moment, there's a rare opportunity. a president who was in full control of all his faculties, and was not beholden to the progressive/antifa wing of the party, would recognize this, and take action accordingly.
This is less eastern front in WW1 or WW2 and more Russian incursions into Afghanistan IMO. Putin's been able to get away with losses so far because he's recruiting mostly ethnic minorities and rural people instead of middle class Moscow/St. Petersburg kids (which should sound familiar to Americans lol).
