Just thought I'd hop in this thread and mention Luis Castillo as a possible trade target. Ken Rosenthal mentioned Luis Castillo has faced the AL East 4 times this season (not including the Orioles) with an ERA of 1.38. I looked up those 4 games and the stat lines look really good. Looked nasty tonight in the All-Star Game as well. 7 innnings, 1 run, 2 hits, 4 walks, 8 Ks vs. Yankees (7/14) 7 innings, 1 run 4 hits, 1 walk, 8 Ks vs. Rays (7/8) 6 innings, 0 runs, 1 hit, 3 walks, 10 Ks vs. Red Sox (5/31) 6 innings, 2 runs, 7 hits, 0 walks, and 4 Ks vs. Blue Jays (5/20)
This would never happen, but it would be funny to watch Yankee fans reaction... To Nationals Jeremy Pena Luis Garcia Pedro Leon To Red Sox Michael Brantley Hunter Brown To Astros Juan Soto Xander Boagerts Then we figure out ss next year after the parade...
So, I’d be against the idea of blowing up the future for a greater chance of winning today, because it doesn’t guarantee anything today or move the odds all that much- but it does bring up an interesting question, to me at least. Namely, if you could be guaranteed a title this year and next year but absolutely knew it would mean selling the entirety of the farm and ending your competitive window for a decade beyond those two years would you do it? I think I would. Pushing the title count to 3 with this group is massive. I hate that they only have 1 title right now.
Yes, it leaves a hole at shortstop in the offseason... You'd have Altuve Tucker Yordan Bregman Soto For 3 postseason runs. The rotation is more up in the air to expect Verlander to be Verlander for 2 additional years... even so, having McCullers, Valdez, and Javier with Verlander money is a solid start for a rotation... So I think of it more like having a 3 year window than one. It wouldn't happen, but it would make some sense. Red Sox are horrible in RF and Brantley steps in. They have Jeter Downs in AAA to call up to replace Xander. They could argue in such a move of Xander they aren't sacrificing a run this year while also getting Brown for the future...
If there was a guarantee, I'd do it. As it stands, we don't know how healthy the pitching will be this year in October, next year in October, and the year after. If trading away the farm, I'd prefer a position player as they are less likely to get hurt or spontaneously suck (e.g., Berrios).
Mlbtradeumors talks about the Miguel Cabrera trade being the most similar to what a Juan Soto trade will cost and it might not even be enough for Soto. The Tigers gave up 6 players including 2 top 10 prospects in all of baseball and ate the awful Dontrelle Willis contract after he lost his ability to pitch effectively. So put that info into your trade scenarios for the Astros... https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/07/juan-soto-trade-rumors-best-fits.html "A talent of this magnitude hasn’t hit the trade market this early in his career and with this much of a track record since the then-Florida Marlins sent Miguel Cabrera to the Tigers at the 2007 Winter Meetings for a six-player package headlined by Cameron Maybin and Andrew Miller. Both Maybin and Miller had been top-10 selections in the two prior drafts, and both were ranked inside Baseball America’s top 10 overall prospects in all of MLB at the time. And yet, even that comparison may fall a bit shy. Heading into his age-25 season at the time of the trade, Cabrera was legitimately amazing — a perennial .300+ hitter with easy 30-homer power who had been, by measure of wRC+, 39 percent better than league average with the bat at that point in his career. Soto, however, will be 24 for the entirety of the 2023 season. By measure of wRC+, he’s been 55 percent better than the average hitter to this point in his career. Obviously, the two situations differ beyond that fairly rudimentary comparison. The Marlins also sent Dontrelle Willis to the Tigers, which impacted the calculus of that deal. Speculatively speaking, the Nationals could try to dump Patrick Corbin on an acquiring team, but we don’t know whether that’ll be the case. (Stephen Strasburg has a full no-trade clause, for those thinking even bigger, which makes that scenario unlikely.) More broadly, the manner in which front offices value prospects has changed over the years. We shouldn’t look to the Cabrera deal as a concrete template, but it’s a the closest general barometer of how painful it might be to acquire a talent of Soto’s caliber at this juncture of his career."
While I normally wouldn't put too much weight on trades made that far back as teams have adjusted how they value players, Soto is viewed by many as the best player in the game going forward. It is either going to take a lot of MLB talent or much more prospect talent than the Astros have.
Yeah the Astros were in the group of teams MLBTR dismissed straight away as not having the farm to be in the mix. While I think that article didn’t give attention to the chance the Nats might value graduated young talented (which the Astros have in guys like Javier, Garcia, Abreu, Meyers, McCormick, and Siri), and that the Nats might want to dump Corbin’s salary as part of the deal, I do think the odds are heavily stacked against Soto ending up in Houston. Which might not be a bad thing; teams focused on landing Soto might be distracted from other good players Houston might be targeting like Castillo or Bell.
Young ML proven talent under control is worth more. Luis Garcia is worth 3 Hunter Browns. Look at the Cabrera trade. The Marlins netted two top 20 prospects: Andrew Miller and Cameron Maybin. If we dropped a Pena and Garcia on them that would trump a Volpe offer from the Yankees. The issue is filling a hole then at shortstop
You can overpay for the best player in baseball. Even if Soto is that player and you have a guarantee he'll never be injured or have diminished production. There is a price at which he's not worth it. The game places his field value at $103M PER YEAR. If this is his market value, it is too much whether you pay in prospects, MLB players or simply CASH. In a team game with a salary cap, devoting 45% of your cap space to ONE player will not win you a championship. In fact, the player will become a pariah because his salary alone will be rightly blamed for consistent LOSING. And if for some reason he's only a $50M per year player after a couple of seasons, you're stuck for the length of his contract.
Agreed, and I would guess they would prefer high end prospects over guys who’s clock has been running a couple years already
What if we turned into the 27 yanks for 2 or 3 years and then became the 2011 Astros again? I’d take that.
I wouldn’t. Luhow and now Click are implementing the St. Louis model to try and be perennial contenders for decades. We have been to the World Series 3 of the last 5 years, that’s already dynasty like and we are sure to be favorites for at least the ALCS the next 3 years minimum. Do not want to ever blow it up again and the Astros FO has shown no indication to get off Luhow’s plan.
Trading for Soto doesn’t mean it all blows up and we no longer are a dynasty. I don’t understand this logic. You could trade L. Garcia, J. Pena, H. Brown, Y. Diaz and Meyers for Soto and it wouldn’t stop the trajectory of being a dynasty... in fact, I’d argue it enhances it. Our SP depth doesn’t really take a massive hit as we’ve been doing ok without McCullers. Losing Garcia and Brown is a moot point when you can still rely on Valdez, McCullers, Javier, Urquidy and Odorizzi (PO). Would you rather have Soto or Pena/Meyers in lineup? We all know the answer to this and we’d have it for 3 postseason runs. It for sure establishes our window for WS rings.
