That was the Tony C point- the only guy not going to be a HOFer in his similarity score (ok- maybe not Giancarlo Stanton either, but I think he might be on his way. Especially if we wins a ring with the Yanks. I suppose you could say Harper won’t get there either and I suppose he might not- but with 2 MVP’s, another huge year this year before a fluke injury, and being shy of 30 I’d give pretty major odds Harper gets there. As to injury that’s what insurance is for. If you gave him that deal and flipped him when Alvarez was up and were able to get off of the contract you’d have gotten the steal of the century having him locked up for 6/200 or so from 23-29. I don’t think the Astros will do this but the Mets, Yanks or Dodgers ought to. We are too cheap (I mean this in a relative sense not an absolute sense- not a complaint) to roll the dice like that. If it happens to come up snake eyes for the yanks they can power through it in a way we can’t.
My take on that is that it’s ridiculous. Why not send them Alvarez? Hell, maybe they’ll take a package of Bregman and Altuve!
What about Peña and Brown. I suspect there’s no way they’d do that deal but would you? I wouldn’t think so- you have no logical replacement for Peña. Unless you want to bring Correa back next year. Which would be kind of cool, not at all likely to happen and would mean JV is gone in all likelihood from a salary perspective. I probably wouldn’t do that deal from an Astros perspective. No sense trading for Soto if it opens up a gaping hole somewhere else, even if value for value is good.
Brantley wouldn’t fetch anything- I’m not sure he sees another AB as an Astro and if so that he will be right with that bad shoulder. . Maybe Odo and Chas get you a solid SS prospect from someone with a few of them who views that as their surplus?
Which team will throw 15-500 at Soto? I guess the Yankees have money coming off the books with Judge, though that contract locks them into Cole + Soto for the next 7 years. I make that move in a heartbeat, even if it tanks the farm, and kick Judge to the curb, especially if the Yankees fail to get out of the CS again this year. The Mets are interesting, as Alonzo and Soto hit free agency in the same year, which is also the same year Sherzer's deal ends. Cohen strikes me as the type of owner to resign everyone, or at the very least, will keep Soto, pair him up with Lindor for the next 8 years, and let Alonzo walk. The Giants have TONS of money coming off the books, and very few young players to throw it at. Their problem is if Soto left DC over the money, or to win? If Soto gets traded to SF, he'll find himself in the same situation as DC back in 2019, as the only young talent on an old team with a very short window. Don't be surprised if Soto refuses to resign in the bay area after their window expires (which was last year imo). San Diego isn't realistic for Soto long term. Machado still has 7 years on his deal, the Tatis extention is yet to kick in, and Joe Musgrove hits UFA this season. There's no room for Soto long term there, especially considering they're a top-5 salary already. The Dodgers are a real threat. They have the assets and the money. Bellinger and Muncy come off the books this year, that's nearly 30 million freed up right there. They are my prime Soto Watch team IMO.
I know it isn’t showing right now. But last season, aside from a historically bad first 2 months, Tucker was literally the best of not the second best player in all of baseball. Like better than both the guys who were leading AL MVP. Now I know he isn’t doing that now, and didn’t do it in April/May of last year, but the potential is there. And so is the defense. I just don’t see any reason to trade him plus more for only 2.5 seasons of Soto. Would rather upgrade 2-3 positions marginally than upgrade the offense of 1 position by a good amount.
Do you think the Reds would trade Castillo for Luis Garcia straight up? Castillo making $7.35 M this year and about $12M in final arb year next. Has 3.2 WAR in 13 gs and should get about 11 starts after trade deadline. That equates to about 2.75 WAR for $2.9M the rest of 2023. Best estimate is $12M arb salary next year and ZIPS projects him to be worth 4.2 WAR. Castillo: $14.9M for 6.95 WAR - 2023. Garcia: makes $1.25M as pre arb.and has 0.6 WAR. about $409K and 0.45 WAR projected after trade deadline. 2023: prearb $1.5M ZIPS 2.7 WAR 2024:arb1 $3.5M ZIPS 2.6 WAR 2025:arb2 $8M. ? 2.5 WAR 2026:arb3 $14M ?2.4 WAR Total 4+ yrs $27.4M. 10.65 WAR. 2.5 WAR is a solid #3 SP. not a star but very valuable. Do you think the Reds would take 4 yrs of 2.5 WAR avg for a $6.5M average salary In excharge for 1+ yr of 4.2 WAR at $12M salary?
What about Luis Castillo Brandon Drury For Luis Garcia Mauricio Dubon Jose Siri Astros get an ace pitcher for 1 year and 2 playoff runs and a big rental bat that can play 1B, 2B, 3B, LF and in a pinch SS or RF for this playoff run. Reds get 3 players who are all controlled for 3+ years and project to be regulars on 26 man roster. Career WAR per 162 g Garcia 2.6 - #3SP for 4 years Siri 2.6. #4OF speed/defense for 5 years Dubon 1.5 top bench inf for 3 years. Do they do it? Should the Astros do it? Baseballtradevalues.com says Reds get $58.5M Astros get $47.2M value.
As long as Lance comes back in time for the postseason, I really don’t believe the Castillo smoke. A postseason rotation of Verlander-Valdez-McCullers- one of Garcia/Urquidy/Javier with the other two in long relief is more than adequate. Much better to make a move for Josh Bell and call up Hunter Brown for the bullpen.
I do wonder if the Judge extension hang up causes the Yankees to panic and put Volpe on the table for Soto.... If Judge leaves then they have a replacement ready for a couple of years... I doubt they do it though... Soto doesn't strike out enough for their liking...
Dodgers also have to sign Turner and Buehler is getting a deal soon... Not sure there's as much there as it looks.. Freeman can play first but who dh's then?
No. The Reds window is not the next 3-4 seasons; they don't have any reason to trade Castillo for a guy with only 2-3 more seasons of control. They're looking for high-upside (top 100'ish) guys with a cumulative 18-24 seasons of club control.
In general, assume bench players like Dubon and fringe players like Siri have zero trade value to rebuilding teams. They have value in general, but they do nothing to move the needle for a rebuilding team. Those teams don't want to fill up their active/40-man rosters and take away spots from their own developing players.
Should the Astros do it? Of course they should do it. Should the Reds do it? Their GM should be fired on the spot if he makes that trade.
Boy that Astros package looks light to me even if you have more value going out. I would doubt the reds would do that.
