My offer for Soto is awesome and it’s a great deal for a player who clearly doesn’t want to be a National. If it doesn’t work then it doesn’t work. Nationals can keep him, all we can do is offer. (Lee or Diaz), Brown, (Garcia or Javier) ,Myers is a great trade for Soto. And yes, we get Soto for this year and 23,24. No team is going to gut their franchise for one player. Our offer would be very competitive. And yes, Maybe that forces Nationals to keep Soto…just like they did with Bryce Harper.
Fangraphs has an article about Soto and comped his trade value to what Chicago got from Boston for Chris Sale a few years ago. That haul was: Moncada (top prospect in all of baseball) Kopech (MLB top 50 pitching. prospect) Basabe (40+ by fangraphs at the time) Diaz (35+ pitching prospect at the time) Houston has no direct equivalent for Moncada. But Brown, Perez, and Melendez are pretty good equivalents for the other 3. No idea how they’d get to Moncada’s value, but I’d guess Javier would be a start. In my hypothetical, Javier, Diaz, and McCormick would be enough but I’m not so sure about that now.
And Boston knew they would have a chance to extend Sale Show of hands of those who think we will top the 15 year 440 million offer he has already turned down
We won’t and we won’t try. This trade would be for this year and 23,24. Three playoff runs with Tucker, Alvarez, Soto, Chaz/Leon. If we are better off with keeping Brown, Garcia, Lee, Myers for next three years then don’t do the trade. All just fun talk anyway.
I honestly think they should go after Luis Castillo instead. The prospects they don't want to give will most likely have to be involved for Soto. And if they do get Soto, will they have assets for Castillo/want to trade away more top prospects? A coworker who's a Yankees fan prefers Castillo. Also while everyone goes after Soto, Houston should swoop in on Castillo. Seems like teams interested in Castillo are teams interested in Soto. Have them busy on Soto/Nationals.
Gotta admit, it would be pretty comical to see the Astros brass top out at 6 years for Correa only to offer 10+ for Soto. I don’t think it happens anyways, but my god imagining Soto in our lineup is so dangerous, its borderline criminal and could lead to Click and Crane getting hit with charges.
I'm not trying to take any shots at you. Your point is grounded in logic. I assume for example because you list a single value you assume a constant perceived value. Players such as JD Martinez can outperform expected value. It's not a blind proposition. Look at the Gerrit Cole trade. The Astros believed he would pitch better after their fixes so they assigned a higher value internally than the Pirates did who believed he may have plateaud. To take that into account it would be more appropriate to assign a range of values. It's far more complicated so I understand going the more simplistic approach.
I would imagine the Soto market would shake itself out pretty quickly given how high the price should be. I’m sure every team with interest contacted them to gauge the starting point and surely the vast majority bowed out right then. I would be surprised if there were more than 5 teams even involved at this point. Mets, Yanks, and Padres would be my favorites with Cards, Red Sox, and Giants as dark horses. I don’t see Houston being able to compete unless Washington is really wanting to dump money along with him (Corbin or Strasburg).
Just hear me out a second... We do Garcia Javier Leon Brown + 2 lower prospects For Soto Corbin We then flip Odorizzi to Cardinals for their lefty Thompson and Luken Baker. That leaves us with (by playoff time) 2B Altuve 3B Bregman LF Soto DH Alvarez RF Tucker 1B Gurriel SS Pena CF Meyers C Maldonado Brantley off the bench and in rotation. Verlander McCullers Valdez Urquidy Corbin This would be dependent on 1) McCullers looking healthy 2) The Astros belief in fixing Corbin I Know they hate Tucker in CF but in the playoffs they can platoon Meyers and Brantley doing that. Brantley is insurance for injuries. Corbin and Thompson gives them 2 lefty arms in the playoffs bullpen. Baker competes with Matijevic for 1B next year. Soto's money mostly offset by Brantley walking in offseason. Then they can solidify rotation in offseason adding an arm... Definitely an all in move.... not sure i do it...
I'm not taking any offense and do not believe any was intended. I do believe I prefaced my post by saying there are many values so I referenced the one I used. If not that was my intent. I made several posts.
I think the Astros NEED a bat and SHOULD take a swing at Castillo. The 2 older big conference college CF in the first 2 rounds really gave the team a surplus of OF in their top 10. Barber, Leon, Whitaker, or them are much easier to trade away now. I'll look over things and see what offers I think make sense
One thought i had, though unlikely, is to see if Soto would buyout a year of free agency and the rest of his arbitration... Say 3 years 100 million.. guarantees him a big payday by putting off the market a year. I wouldn't think he would do it but Boras surprised us with Correa.... though different incentives for Boras' pay there... I doubt the Nationals even offered something like that. Not likely to work..
There is a name that replaces Moncada. You just don't want to say it. Jeremy Pena. No Pena no Soto is what I've heard. Not that Boras has a ton of power in this situation, but he wants to reset the market this season or this offseason. He wants the team that trades for Soto to pony up the 500 million dollar contract. Teams that are willing/able to extend Soto will give up more for him than teams like the Astros that will only have him for a couple years.
Soto this off-season signing a 15 year 500 million dollar deal is completely and totally logical. You’d have him from age 24-38. That means you have to expect 50 WAR to break even. You have the entirety of his prime and then his late prime before the deal looks really bad the last 3 or 4 years. And you get all that st 34 million a year. If he’s going to put up 6-8 WAR seasons between now and 30 or so you might break even before he hits his 30’s on the deal- the last half decade plus could easily be a free roll. I think people assuming he won’t get 500+ are wrong- provided he’s ok with signing a deal that locks him up until he’s more or less 40. Hell, sign him to a deal like that- watch him rake for 4 years and you’ve got him at 27/28 for something like 12/375. If he has an MVP season in there and you wanted to dump him I wouldn’t be surprised if you could get off the contract for nothing if he’s still performing. That would be a heist.
Mike Trout at 12-425 looked like a steal until he started missing half the year every season. Injuries, not decline, are the real killers with these megadeals.
The entirety of his top 10 similarity scores are HOFers (some inner circle ones at that) and Tony C who obviously was a baseball tragedy with the beanball. Basixalky this is a guy who could only miss through freak injury and has a 50/50 shot at being an all time all time frat with the other 50% chance of being “only” Miggy Cabrera or Orlando Cepeda. I knew he was good but damn, that’s otherworldly statistically.
