It depends on how often they think it would translate in game. Do you want him to forgo OBP and batting average for 15-20 homers? It is also possible that they think he can hit 25-35 homers, in which case they may think it is a reasonable trade off. The vast majority of players with the Astros that have decent bat on ball skills are tinkered with to hit more homers, so you are likely right. The Astros are also far more enamored with his glove than others are. Even guys like Law (who are the opposite of the Astros on many things) say he is adequate to stay in center, but the Astros view him as well above average in centerfield. The jumps and reads are elite, and he closes well but isn't a real true 70-80 with the legs.
Considering he's rocking 98%ile Exit Velos, combined WITH walking more than he strikes out, it's no shame if his hitting profile remains the same. I really have no clue how he fell to 28. I know he's a bit short at 5' 9", but Alex Bregman's " 6' 0" " on his baseball reference page is the biggest crock of horseshit I've read in a while and he went #2.
I would be willing to trade about 2 (edit 3) singles for each additional homer. MLB defenses are good which almost always makes the trade off usually beneficial for a swing with more loft helping. If he's already generating plus plus EV with his current swing, it should be easy for him to add homers without having to compromise contact as much as someone like Chas swinging out of his shoes.
Gotta be happy with the draft so far. Gilbert looks like a solid all-around player (Ranked #18 by Law) Melton is older, but a great athlete. His write-up and build are descriptive of Cody Bellinger (Ranked #25 by Law) Taylor comes with serious break-out potential if he can add velocity. Even without it, look at the success had with Collin McHugh. Always excited about the players, but I think for picking at the back-end of the 1st & 2nd that they've done an amazing job. Gilbert to me looks as safe a pick as there was in the draft in terms of what he brings to the table.
I hear you man, but trades get made (or not made) based on projections and rankings. So, everything matters
True, but more than anything it depends on who the other team is. That team may be higher/lower than most are on a certain prospect.
I think he fell to #28 because of his size and lack of real speed. A lot of teams are biased against shorter players and especially outfielders, they view their upside as Gardner, Eaton or Madrigal. Scouts seem to forget that Mookie Betts is only 5'9" and is elite and actually under-rated at this point. The other issue is that he really isn't fast. He really has close to average speed and that has lead a lot of scouts to believe he will have to move to a corner spot and cannot be a real traditional table setter. I personally don't think that is accurate - he is very quick, he gets off the bag for steal quickly and he is able to read pitchers well. He will steal bases if he makes it a priority. In the field, his lack of true speed will keep him from being Acuna or Buxton out there, but he gets great jumps, he really reads the ball off the bat well and takes really good routes as well. He can stay in CF and has close to an elite arm in center. The most exciting thing about him to me is his pitch recognition and bat speed, with that, you can hit with power at 5'5" tall.... hell, look at Altuve .... Yogi Berra was like 5'6".... Joe Morgan, Kirby Puckett, Ivan Rodriquez, Cedric Mullins.... Alex Bregman, Bagwell was only really 5'10", Jose Ramirez was WELL under 6'0" when I met him... Mel Ott has short.... Biggio, Campanella.
I see Fangraphs has Gilbert with a 45 grade and Melton at 40. According to their recent list; Gilbert fits somewhere between #3-7 Melton between #9-15 Of Astros top prospects.
Quick video I watched on Knorr: -transferred from Cal State Fullerton to Coastal Carolina. -used to sit 90-92 mph with the fastball but upped his velo to sit mid 90’s and topped out at 98 this year -needs to develop his secondary pitches but has a pretty good changeup Seems like another guy the Astros PD team have had their eyes on and potentially a guy they can get to sign under slot and also untap some more potential. Really interested to see if they grab a high school kid with their next pick.
This is the guy I thought was on CSF. This guy was a walking gas can at times.... gives up a lot of homers.
https://nypost.com/2022/07/16/trey-dombroski-proving-velocity-isnt-everything-in-mlb-draft/amp/ Quick article I found on Dombroski. Finesse pitcher. Lefty. Seems to have had major success in the cape cod league against top notch competition. One draft analysis board had him as the 55th best prospect. May be some Dallas Keuchel vibes here.(Astros version Keuchel, of course)
