I was roundly mocked in many places for saying Washington absolutely had to trade Soto this year if he wasn’t going to extend. it’s criminal malpractice to waste an asset that good, with 2.5 years of control, when you are in a rebuild. Like your GM should be hogtied and horsewhipped malpractice. will be fascinating to see what he fetches. Note- I have zero belief we will trade for him. Note #2- my trade offer would be Brown, Garcia, Meyers, Chaz and Leon. That trade package is good enough that Washington should say yes, in a vacuum, as opposed to saying no thanks we will roll the dice and keep him. I don’t know if the Astros would do that deal. I strongly suspect someone else would pay more than that in pure prospects.
Tucker is worth more than Soto by himself. Soto has between $75M-$130M in surplus value; keep in mind he’s going to make fat cash in arbitration (he’s already at $17M in his first year). A reasonable package would be Brown, Javier, McCormick, Leon, Whitley, and Diaz. And I would be happy with Houston making that trade.
why would the astros say no to that? ur borderline best team in league upgrading by far your biggest need with a top 5 player in baseball for 2.5 years at the expense of luis garcia from the big league team. also, you can just re-trade him in 2024. get a top prospect or 2 right back. it's an absolute no-brainer. also, they can replace chaz with any other prospect they want, and can interchange garcia with javier. i like javier, but would definitely be trading while his value is at an all-time high. would be nice to capitalize on that. him as an asset in that trade would've seemed ridiculous a month ago.
If the Death star went full steam for Bryce Harper, he'd be salivating for no longer 20 year old Soto. Oh well, left handed reliever it is.
I don’t think That trade would be even close to the asking price or something Washington would even consider. You are looking to at least give up Peña, brown, Garcia, Meyers, leon and more players. It’s going to be a huge haul whatever they end up getting, you regularly don’t see a 23 year old MVP caliber player in the trade market.
I’d have to swallow really ****ing hard at Brown, Javier and Whitley. I need to say not Brown and Javier but you get to pick one and the other guy is Garcia. I mean- I’d say Urquidy but settle on Garcia. That makes your rotation What- JV, LMJ, Framber, Garcia, Urquidy going forward? And your best in house #6 guy for injuries Bielak? There’s no upside to that rotation but it’s plenty good enough to win World Series if it stays intact. that lineup though.
Because that’s 25 years of club control that’s likely above average (call Chas average) going out for 2.5 years of club control the other way. The financial ramifications of cutting base on a bunch of 500k-5M guys to pay Soto somewhere between 25 and 35 million the next two years also matters. I strongly suspect you’d be hoping for what- 16-20 WAR coming your way from Soto? Going back I think it’s plausible to say: Meyers- 10 Chaz-5 Garcia- 10 Brown is a top 100 prospect called the highest floor/least likely to miss guy in the futures game and Leon is a very high ceiling guy if he ever reaches it. I strongly suspect we would lose the WAR battle and the War per $ money both ways on that trade. that would be the argument for the Astros not doing the trade. I suggested it and I’d do it for all the reasons you say, but I could see someone saying no- that’s too much and cuts out our legs from under us in a financial flexibility kind of way.
u forgot odorizzi, assuming ur talking this year. who knows what they do in offseason if ur talking next year. they'd get a better option than bielak for #6.
As I said/ I suspect they’d receive more from someone else. That someone else wouldn’t be me and I’d tell them to get ****ed on that counter proposal. I strongly suspect Peña by himself will have more surplus value than Soto during the rest of the time they are both under club control. The 23 year old fact isn’t important if you aren’t able to extend him. The only important part is 2.5 years of club control in his prime when talking trade value. talking extension the 23 obviously is hugely important.
Strictly talking next year and the year after assuming re-sign JV. You don’t trade for 3 playoffs worth of Soto and then let JV get away. Completely illogical.
yeah i didn't mean that. i meant the rotation next year will look at least marginally better than the one you just listed. odorizzi if u meant the remainder of this season, and at least one startable arm better than bielak at 6 next season.
Who would that be? That’s the biggest risk for me if you did Snakes package. Your top 5 is fine but there is no upside arm behind that for the future. You’d have gotten rid of all of them with Javier, Brown and Whitley… that’s tough. I assume Odo opts out if we don’t trade him this deadline. who is your guy that slots better than Bielak in that scenario?
that was the "who knows what they do in the offseason" part. not too worried about finding a value arm or two that's at least a minor upgrade over bielak for cheap. but if you told me that bielak would be our #6 next season and we weren't allowed to acquire any more pitchers if we made the trade, i'd still do it without blinking an eye. heck maybe we could get a depth arm back from the nats.
Yeah it’s 2 separate convos- Top 4 is all that matters for playoffs but you have to have enough depth to get you there (ideally as a top 2 seed) during the playoffs. the biggest problem- I think you are right that they could mitigate some risk probably in the off-season- is that it puts an end date on your run as after 2024 I think unless they can get some big unforeseen development from the minors.
it would be damn hard to give him up rather than use him for a 2024 run, but man would renting him for 2 title runs, then trading him after 2023 for a haul be a slick move. would be hard to argue either way. fun to dream ha.
I agree. Yankees have to be the overwhelming favorite to get him. Mets, Dodgers, and Braves will also likely be in the mix and they all have the prospects to outbid Houston. But you never know until it’s done.
Putting together a good enough deal to make it worth while is different than putting together the best deal. I believe the Astros to be capable of the first with some of the names we’ve thrown about but not the second. Also- just feels like he has to go to a massive big market team that will extend him. That basically leaves Yanks or Dodgers with Red Sox and Giants as dark horses. Maybe the Mets with new ownership. this is talking about teams that could extend him.
