College first baseman in the first few rounds are a bad idea. Unless they mash their way to the majors, they struggle to find spots in any minor league lineup. College outfielders, on the other hand, have the athleticism to usually play multiple positions, and more times than not, outpreform their draft slot. Big reason why the Astros love drafting them. Even my boy JJ Matijevic who defied the odds and managed to mash his way to the majors can't get playing time because Dusty would rather play Mr. 516 OPS Dubon at LF over the defensively limited JJ.
I agree in principle but I think we tend to undervalue Urquidy. He is a major league starting pitcher with experience and years of control. You don't just trip over one of them every time you walk down the road. He is a valuable and rare commodity. Additionally he holds his own with one of the best rotations in the sport. To say that Baltimore has ten prospects they value more highly than a proven 1st tier ML starter with years of low cost control is a little tough.
Calling Urquidy “1st tier” is a pretty big stretch. Urquidy currently sports the 16th highest k rate on the team this season (granted, he has the 2nd lowest bb rate). He’s only been worth 0.5 fwar over 88.1ip. He’s logged 266 mlb innings and been worth 3.5 fwar. Don’t get me wrong, he has value, which is why I think he’d be worth 2-3 Org Top 20 prospects from one of the deepest farms in the league. The Orioles prospects I listed would all likely rank in the top 8 of Houston’s system. But he’s not a first tier SP. Hes a fine #3 on a young team shooting for the wild card or a solid BoR guy on a real contender.
How much do they average in attendance? Do you really think their mind share would be worse if they won 88 games and went to the playoffs as a wild card?
Yeah, That's why I said if he was still around at the back end of round 3 when we pick. If you get any WAR at all out of your 3rd rounder you should consider that a success. If anyone was advanced enough as a college bat to be a 1b/DH it would be him. But you'd probably see an AJ Reed type deal with his career if I had to guess.
What I meant to say that did not come across is that Urq is a part of a first tier rotation. That adds to his value and as you say he is s #3 starter on most teams.
He also has a great WHIP for his career and is postseason proven. He's a better pitcher than Bud Norris, with the same amount of control. We got Josh Hader (before he was a big-time prospect), a mediocre young OF (LJ Hoes) and a Comp A draft pick, which the Braves & Royals just showed us the value of. Maybe you pull off a Scott Feldman-esque trade with Odorizzi and get back a Jake Arrieta & Pedro Strop. You know what, pretty clearly whoever was running the 2013 Orioles was just not good. Those are 2 incredibly lopsided deals for 2 very mediocre pitchers.
I like how alot of you under value Urquidy. His value comes from what he has done which is OK but years of control is the big kicker
This. A lot of organizations target middle infields in the international draft for this same reason. Yes, the Astros like taking outfielders that are solid at fielding their position and figure they can move them around. FWIW The Astros are targeting college outfielders in the 2022 draft too with some interest in college pitchers and high leverage HS arms.
Absolutely. But to be fair most people consider 5 pitchers to be a full rotation. Odo is indeed the sixth man in our rotation and is one injury away from being the fifth. Did you have a point?
Since Odorizzi adjusted his mechanics 6 starts ago, the opponents OPS is .499, his WHIP is below 1, ERA is 1.87. I think you are severely undervaluing him.
He has pitched pretty well but our 1 thru 5 starters all want the ball every 5th day and they do not like it when they do not get what they want. Regardless of the fact that what they want is not necessarily what is best for them, or for the team. When he is pitching well he is probably our 4th best pitcher, when he is not he is much much worse than that. I still consider him too volatile for the money he is getting but we could do a lot worse than Jake.
How do you know this? Are you privy to their conversations with management? For example, Verlander has had the ball 4 times "every 5th day" this season. He is about to pitch for the 3rd time on 6+ days rest. In his previous 2 starts, he pitched 14 innings and given up 1 earned run, struck out 16 and walked 1 in 14 innings. Don't you think that coming off TJ surgery and missing 2 seasons it is important to manage his workload?
Astros get: LHP Andrew Chafin Tigers get: RHP Ronel Blanco, RHP Peter Solomon Same trade I proposed a few pages back. There's our lefty, who can also get righties out and can be another high leverage arm. Astros get: 1B/OF Garrett Cooper Marlins get: IF Joe Perez, OF Chas McCormick, PTBNL Initially I was reluctant about Cooper, because on the surface he looked like just a pure singles hitter, but diving deeper into the stats (thank you Baseball Savant), I like him more and more. He hits a lot of baseballs hard, and has a good expected slugging - he just has a low launch angle, which he could perhaps work on. Savant also says he should hit more homers at MMP. He also has good power the other way and is an all-around solid hitter to all fields. Garrett is also under team control next year so he is not a rental, and has corner OF flexibility too. Cooper adds extra pop and depth to the lineup and an alternative to the struggling and regressing Gurriel.
I like those trades. They seem realistic and make the team better. Add in trading Urquidy for 3 prospects that would rank in the 6-12 range on Houston’s prospect list and I would consider that a very successful deadline.
I would think the value of a package comprising Blanco and Solomon would have to be near zero. I guess Chafin is pretty pricey but still, what would be the point for the Tigers?
