I think Putin's strategy is to bleed America dry of money. He's adopted the same policy as Osama Bin Laden wreaking havoc so we'd have to fund a war on terror. Of course, Putin wants the land. But, he also wants to stick it to us. And, of course, we're all in for it. We got out of one war and went directly into funding another one. This country will never get out of debt the way it works. This war could go on for a while and we'll just be allocating $40 billion chunks every month or two. It's f*cked.
If Trump we're still in office and he sucked enough Putin c*ck, then Putin might not have invaded Ukraine at all.
Honestly, it's not that bad on our end. Natty Gas is the main issue as Europe is dependent upon it for everything. Surviving one winter might spark some deep and forward looking changes. I guess if there were direct links to Russia in the Freeport LNG explosion, the suspicion would be stronger. (still sus) But in terms of years, maybe Europe adopts nuclear after it weans off...coal. And we figure out how fracking can "resiliently" work along with transitioning to alternatives. We still have a long long way to go for Green despite heading into the "Oh ****" phase of Climate Change...
That could be Putin’s strategy but this war cost Russia even more than it does is. Even with money from energy Russia doesn’t have much else of an economy to continue to sustain fighting and with sanctions on things like semiconductors it’s even more costly to fight a modern war. Russia does still have an economy it has to sustain to make sure its own people are fed and housed. It also still has a land empire to maintain with parts of it that are very unstable like Dagestan. Finally Russia isn’t just bearing this cost in terms of money but is losing thousands of troops.
You think Russia is tanking it's economy, sacrificing soldiers, losing tons of money, also to bleed the US dry from shipping war tech to Ukraine?
I don't think Putin gives two sh!ts about his own people. They are just fodder to rule over. You think he started this war worrying about how many troops are going to die? Putin himself isn't really losing his money. He's also using energy and food as a weapon against the West. He's putting the Russian people in position to suffer under even more sanctions. But, at the end of the day, he knows he can hurt the West at the same time he steals Ukraine back. He may have underestimated the West's collective response and coming together. But, he also knows he'll always have buyers for his energy exports to fund this war. I really don't think he cares much about the rest. He knows Russia isn't going to collapse or suffer a direct invasion. He'll reclaim Ukraine and wait out the rest regardless of what's going on internally...as is the workings of a true dictator.
I don't think Putin aim is to make the West look bad with this war - his aim is to make himself look glorious. He's not fighting this war to stick it to the West as much as it is to establish himself as the one who brought glory back to Russia and cement his legacy as the greatest leader of Russia. He's smart enough to know the US isn't going to break the bank sending military aid to Ukraine - we have a 20 trillion dollar deficit already - this isn't going to put much more of a dent in that. He wants to weaken the West yes, but through creating interior strife and cyber warfare. He's not happy with the military support Ukraine is getting. He doesn't want it.
Yeah this is more of a desperate move akin to Saddam invading Kuwait than some strongman 4d chess play. You thought Ukranians were pissed at Russians before? This definitely isn't winning over any hearts and minds. I think what ultimately happens is that Russian majority areas in all of the former Soviet states in Eastern Europe get annexed. Belarus will serve as a puppet but not fully join because of it's weak economy. The same reason why Russia doesn't care about regaining its territories in Central Asia...a lot of the "-stans" are underdeveloped with few natural resources. He'll make a play to bring as much of the Russian speaking world under the Kremlin and try to maintain leverage over other countries through oil, farmland etc. This is a country though that, even pre COVID, was struggling to provide enough hospital beds for places outside of Moscow. By every economic metric, the Russian economy is a mess...and it's really a miserable place to live if you're not rich/well-connected. Hindsight is 20/20 but implementing shock therapy and converting to the free market in less than a decade was probably the biggest geopolitical mistake of the 1990s, by both Moscow and the West. Russia is a rich country in terms of natural resources, it's huge, diverse, with a long and rich history and culture. A Russia allied with the West that served as a sort of silk road would be incredible. Unfortunately, I think Russia's history of being invaded by...well everyone (and vice-versa) is why they're so paranoid and why people like Putin thrive there. If you can find it, Putin's Witnesses is a fantastic movie. I had the pleasure of seeing it screened before it was released publicly and met the director. Very informative, but you're going to need to find a subtitled copy.
Putin himself might not care about how many troops he loses or how much the war is costing Russian coffers but the ability of Russia to sustain a longterm war does matter. Yes, the war is costly to the West. It's far more costly to Russia.
Did Putin blunder the Kremlin into a dystopian World War III? https://thehill.com/opinion/nationa...r-the-kremlin-into-a-dystopian-world-war-iii/ excerpt: . . . Less obvious, in terms of understanding the war, is how economic alliances, as instruments of national power, are rapidly becoming the peer competitor, if not prevailing force, of military alliances. Much has been made of Western sanctions against Russia; however, Moscow, at least for now, has successfully deflected the impact of those sanctions back onto the U.S. and Europe in the form of higher energy and food costs. It also means understanding that this war is unlikely to go nuclear. Despite fantasizing on Russian state media about using nuclear weapons to destroy Ukraine and/or NATO, Putin realizes that, short of an attack by NATO on Russia, his military is in no position to take on the alliance’s military forces. Moscow struggles to advance a kilometer at a time in Donbas. It simply does not have the capacity or will to conventionally widen the conflict. Plus, notably, to date the Kremlin has absorbed humiliating defeats without resorting to tactical nukes, including retreating from Kyiv, the sinking of the Moskva and, most recently, the embarrassing evacuation of Snake Island, Ukraine’s Alamo. Still, Putin is unlikely to stop. Ukraine was merely the first steppingstone in retaking the heart of Kievan Rus’ — and beyond. His calculated plot has long been underfoot and nothing will dissuade Putin from doggedly pursuing his would-be Peter the Great empire version of the Russian Federation. As evidence, revisit Putin’s establishment of Nov. 4 as Russia’s National Unity Day. Since 2005, Putin has used the new holiday to erase the old communist narrative of Russia and build a narrative that Ukraine spiritually and territorially is an inseparable part of Russia. He unveiled the statue of Vladimir the Great on National Unity Day in 2016 and then, last year, exploited the day to declare Crimea is “forever a part of Russia,” leading up to his “special operation” in Ukraine. This war is not what the Pentagon, politicians, or Americans in general thought it might be: a nuclear and/or biological Armageddon. But it is global in scale — especially economically — and its outcome will be as defining as the end of WWII. Nothing less than global democracy as we have known it since 1945 is at stake. more at the link
I believe you're pretty far off based on this. Specifically, the narrative of him being the greatest leader of mother Russia, which lacks complete definition. Go watch Xerobull's video. It goes into detail about all the natural resources Russia has been accumulating over the last decade, which includes Ukraine, Crimea and Georgia. The area's Russia has invaded and currently occupies are all the recently discovered deposits of natural gas. He has little interest in taking Kiev. The video also explores all the idiotic ESG narratives Europe has trapped themselves into. He invaded Ukraine now because Europe, specifically the heavily laden industrial Germans shut off most of their nuclear at the worst time. They have completely made themselves dependent on Russian energy and Germany is one of the bedrocks of the EU. While his goal is not exclusively to weaken the west, he is using this as a strategy to gain the maximum leverage against NATO countries. Of course he doesnt want NATO influence in his occupation. Putin has no leverage to stop it provided all the fighting happens in Ukraine. As long as NATO weapons are not used on Russian territory, this will remain a proxy war. Russia only needs to keep occupy the current territory for a couple years before events become dire in Kiev. Eventually Kiev will fall do to economic pressure. The US will continue to keep Ukraine propped up and happily to do so now that we are no longer spending billions in Afghanistan. Spending hundreds of billion in foreign war efforts is part of the core of the American economy.
