I was listening to podcast and they were right about our fan base. We’ve grown to content to jsut being contenders. W Ed it know how to sit back and just let the chip fall dude compare our situaiton to the Celtics years back and how if the celtics did what our rams e want sto do so badly(trade away our picks ) they wouldn’t be in the finals. Ppl forget the reason they got the Tatum was because they held onto their Brooklyn picks. Nobody we tease for right now is goin to help us compete until 3 years down the line because our core is so young. Green is 5-6 years away from reaching his peak. And that’s an agressive scale. Same with sengun Jabari and KPjand whoever else on this roster wi the high upside. We’re not done got through growing pain.
Tanking is done unless Green takes a step back to being the guy he was at the start of last season AND Smith is a total bust. There's simply too much talent on this current Rockets team to actually tank.
Exactly.. I'm not against acquiring him if we get lucky enough to get him.. well unlucky enough I guess.. lol .... Its gonna take time for him to fill out... If he's this generational talent folks out here saying, can you afford to sit him down on a young team and wait ? Especially a young team that seems to have the alpha scorer and other great pieces around him ... Then do you change the offense around him for him to reach that ginormous potential? Will Green and KPJ( if he's still here and thriving) accept that in a few years?
Imagine there being more than a 15% chance of that happening... Imagine trading down from DeAndre Ayton to Luka Doncic or Mikal Bridges... and getting Keldon Johnson.... Imagine trading down from Anthony Edwards for Keldon Johnson and Tyrese Haliburton? Or Markelle Fultz for Bam Adebayo or Donovan Mitchell? And getting another player?
fair enough but even then we can trade the 2023 swap back to the nets with a top 2 protection on it. this way if it lands us wemby or scoot we keep it. if it doesn't, they can have it. if it doesn't convey it becomes their '24 pick (top 4 protected) or something like that. this way they can still tank and earn some reward for it. there's just no reason I see to give up that swap outright in exchange for a high level (but not all star) type player like bridges, anunoby, etc...
It's not that we're trying to get younger, it's taking more swings at getting 'that guy'... or several. Shoot for a dynasty and as many Jaylen Green and Jabari Smiths as you can, because sometimes you get that guy and he's Brandon Roy or Greg Oden. Or Yao Ming... Guys who are superstars but can't stay on the court. If you've got a fab 5 of superstars, getting them to fit and having role players is trivial by comparison. It's still possible to screw that up ala OKC, but that's a good problem to have. In our situation, we've got a natural cliff coming where we start handing draft picks over for the Westbrook trade, so that seems like the natural spot to reassess where we're at. Maybe that's consolidating several players into one, maybe it's trading a poor fit young buck into a solid vet, but I want as many chances at a Giannis (15 overall) or Jokic (41st) as possible. Especially since the rookie pay scale is so favorable. Bradley Beal is gonna get a quarter of a billion dollars?! I wouldn't want to be forced into a deal like that because I'm bereft of assets and I'm frankly jealous of the war chest OKC has amassed.
I disagree if it's for someone on Mikal Bridges level that addresses both need and talent. I would feel differently if it was much better odds than 15%. The evaluation is 15% chance at Victor or say 100% chance at a player you like while still getting something next year. You have a fair perspective, i just happen to disagree.
The fact that the Spurs are tanking for Victor should tell you everything you need to know. The only other tank jobs by the Spurs are for David Robinson and Tim Duncan. For a team that regularly finds guys like Murray, Keldon Johnson, and Kawhi later in the draft, that's a big deal. Adding in that they are giving up a guy like Murray to tank should tell you how valuable the top picks are this year. Victor is as much a sure thing as you can get. He dominated against Chet and Jaden Ivey in Fiba World Cup and France probably would have won if he had not fouled out. USA v France boxscore - FIBA U19 Basketball World Cup 2021 - 11 July - FIBA.basketball 22pts 8rebs 8 blocks 1 stl 1TO +7 There is no way Rockets should give up their draft pick or Brooklyn's unless it is at least top 5-protected or the pick's owner has clinched a playoff berth. Brooklyn missed the playoffs last year and seems worse this year as there is no guarantee any of their 3 best players will play for the team at all. Any trade for KD, Kyrie, or Ben Simmons would not get equal player value for the current season and would include future value from draft picks. Let's just look at some math: If both Brooklyn and Houston finish in the bottom 3: Odds of Rockets pick being top pick: 14% Odds of Brooklyn pick being top pick: 14% Odds of Rockets getting top pick 28% Odds increase by 100% Odds of Rockets pick being top 2 pick: 27.4% Odds of Brooklyn pick being top 2 pick: 27.4% Odds of Rockets getting top 2 pick: 54.8% Odds increase by 100% If Rockets finish above bottom 8 and Brooklyn finish in bottom 3: Odds of Rockets pick being top pick: less than 5% Odds of Brooklyn pick being top pick: 14% Odds of Rockets getting top pick 14-18.5% Odds increase by over 400% Odds of Rockets pick being top 2 pick: less than 10% Odds of Brooklyn pick being top 2 pick: 27.4% Odds of Rockets getting top 2 pick: 27.4 - 36.7% Odds increase by over 394% If Rockets finish bottom 8 and Brooklyn finish worse: Odds of Rockets pick being top pick: 6 - 14% Odds of Brooklyn pick being top pick: 7.5 -14% Odds of Rockets getting top pick 13.5 - 28% Odds increase by 100 - 333% Odds of Rockets pick being top 2 pick: 12.3 - 27.4% Odds of Brooklyn pick being top 2 pick: 15.3 - 27.4% Odds of Rockets getting top 2 pick: 27.6 - 36.7% Odds increase by 100 - 298% If Brooklyn finishes bottom 8 and Rockets finish worse: Odds of Rockets pick being top pick: 7.5 - 14% Odds of Brooklyn pick being top pick: 6 -14% Odds of Rockets getting top pick 13.5 - 28% Odds increase by 42 - 100% Odds of Rockets pick being top 2 pick: 12.3 - 27.4% Odds of Brooklyn pick being top 2 pick: 15.3 - 27.4% Odds of Rockets getting top 2 pick: 27.6 - 36.7% Odds increase by 55 - 100%
The odds are much better because there are 2 chances instead of 1 to get the #1 overall pick. I think there is a good chance both Rockets and Brooklyn finish in the bottom 8, giving the Rockets a 13.5 - 28% chance at the #1 and a 27.6 - 36.7% chance at top 2. The Rockets are prioritizing development over wins, which should make it easier to finish with a good lottery position.
I get the math, which is why there's value in trading a swap, not the pick necessarily... You're not trading the pick swap for Brooklyn so it's not quite the math you are using. Let's say Brooklyn wins the lottery (they may not even be in it). Then Houston could lose the 3 or 4 pick to a team like the spurs for 7 or 8. Then they swap for brooklyn pick. It depends on the details. Rockets are more likely to have the higher pick between us and Brooklyn so it's a small liklihood. Victor is a 15% chance of a sure thing, which is an unlikely thing. Most likely scenario is we're getting the 5th or 6th best player in the draft, who is unlikely to be better than a Bridges or Johnson who we would get in addition to the 4th or 5th best player should the team we send a swap to finish ahead of us or close to us. It's taking advantage of the greed to tank to get a quality player for sure AND still get a lottery pick. You can't tell me Keldon Johnson isn't worth a move from 3 to 7 in the draft... I think the Spurs are likely going to finish with a bottom 4 record which would give is a floor of the 5th pick in a swap scenario. It was just a thought to squeeze added value out of our pick....
It's unlikely Nets finish that low without injuries or guys sitting out. They will get something for Durant and they have some competent role players. I think their floor is most likely 10-14 worst record after a durant trade. Just my opinion based on guessing what durant gets them. They may not even deal him initially...
Would really depend upon who I was getting in return .... this is another really solid draft and the Rockets are likely to have an early lotto pick. Couldn't do it to take a gamble on a player, it would have to be a quality talent. Vegas has the over under at 25.5 ..... a 5 and a half game improvement over last year and what I consider a fair number considering the youth on this roster. That 25.5 is still 3rd worst (tied with Detroit) behind only Orlando & OKC. If they do end up 3rd worst they have a 66.9% chance at a pick top 5 pick (14.0 13.4 12.7 12.0 14.8 26.0 7.0) and would pick no worse than 7th.
Nah, I think we just draft, develop and sign Max FA's going forward. No more need to take risks, we did it all upfront (7 first round picks in 2 seasons). The most boring thing is probably the best thing for us moving forward.
It also depends on who you are trading to. If they are tanking too and finish in the bottom 4 then their pick they are swapping is no worse than 5. For example, if a pick swap this year with okc was owed to them, they wouldn't have moved from 2 to 3 meaning it's worthless. Had we won the lottery we would lose the first pick but get the second and an additional asset or player. Victor is a great prospect, but we have some high ceiling guys now. I wouldn't mind getting some elite 2 way players who can be here for 10+ years potentially. If i gave you a 15% chance at Victor or 85% that you are 2-5; do you take that over a 100% (based on projected record) #2-5 pick AND a building block level player? You're not trading the swap to a team that isn't trying to have a bottom 4 record keep in mind... Maybe by accident they get 6th worst record; but that's still a quality player in a deep draft.
i'd trade any draft pick asset for a desired known commodity... if the deal is right. a draft pick is a questionable commodity - based on the lottery... then whatever player you select with that pick is a gamble... how will he translate to the NBA? is he gonna keep his head on straight? yeh, there are the rare LeBron James instances - but the draft is typically a crap shoot... If i can get a young player that has shown potential on the big stage - i'm listening. of course, i dont play the lotto or do scratchers either... lol
I want to see where this team is at next year by the ASB. Players are going to be available. Look at KD now. Tanking should be over
