We don't have a demand problem - we have a supply problem. And specifically, a logistics problem. Those people exist in other countries and are still consuming things there too. It's not like they magically appear out of nowhere, so they don't change global demand. It's weird that you think laborers in Home Depot somehow are representative of immigrants in the US. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-labor-shortage-immigration-123903823.html Immigration into America has slowed down tremendously, which may hurt the labor market and economic growth as the country tries to bounce back from the coronavirus pandemic, according to a new note from J.P. Morgan. "Population slowdown threatens trend growth," the Nov. 12 note stated, highlighting the fact that due to more aging boomers retiring from the workforce and 3 million fewer immigrants in the country, trend labor force growth is going to be limited at only 0.1% per year and risks hurting overall GDP growth.
Even if you believe in long-term goodies with tariffs (I don't), lifting tariffs have an immediate short-term impact on reducing the cost of goods, translating to lower prices for consumers. For long-term believers, you can reinstate them once the global shock due to the pandemic and the war settles down (until the next global crisis).
Oil is a commodity traded on public exchanges. An oil company wouldn't sell ish charging more and it's not a function of them setting prices anyway. The market sets commodity prices. The price is the same for all buyers and sellers
I understand oil prices the oil prices are set based on the market, but it seems that gas prices are currently higher than when compared to previous gas prices under similar oil prices. I don't know much of anything in this field, I'm sure something explains it, so I'm just asking are we sure oil companies aren't taking higher profit margins than normal? Who works in oil here, is it @JuanValdez ?
Gas prices are based on both oil prices and refining costs/capacity/transport/etc. Oil/gas companies aren't price gouging, but they are an easy target just like the GOP scapegoats immigrants and other things for problems that have nothing to do with them.
I don't work in oil, I work in power and gas. Hope an actual oil guy pipes up, but @pgabriel is making sense to me here. Commodity markets set efficient clearing prices. Margins can get fatter when there is more risk in the market, but there is little opportunity for a supplier to just demand more for their product. Maybe the spread between the price of oil and the price of gasoline can increase with market conditions because gasoline refiners face risks that are separate and additional to those faced by oil producers. But I went to a futures pricing site and plotted gasoline futures against crude oil futures and they seem to corollate pretty well. To your point, when oil was similarly high in 2013-2014, gas futures didn't get up quite so high. But, it's probably too simplistic to say we should get no higher than the 2013-14 gasoline prices. Commodity markets are complex and there are considerations beyond the cost of the feedstock to be considered.
I don't claim to be an expert on the oil market but commodity prices are about as pure as a function of supply and demand as we have. @ThatBoyNick , again Russia is the largest oil prodcer. Taking that supply away creates a premium in price above the cost to produce. That's how supply and demand setting price works
It is , I never had a problem with Biden saying that. Republicans will take every opportunity to criticize Democrats on energy, just like defense
That was a lot to read so I held off until I had some extended time. 1) As I mentioned in the first reply, a lot of this is chicken or the egg posturing. Correct me if I'm wrong, but you're framing that this has happened before covid...I just don't see inflation blowing up to 1970s levels without covid. A Russian energy embargo by itself could bad, but not this bad... China btw, is going through their own super bubble busts (housing, banks, and to some extent their stocks), and likely would've had a recession/market crash like we would without Covid. That's partly why they haven't actively held hands with Russia since the beginning. Adversarial yes...Hostile no. Do you know what China needs right now for their soft landing? More American dollars. Stable inflows of foreign investment. More trade imbalances with the US and the West to shift those dollars around and cook their internal books a little longer. So they're not going to sabotage the US, nor do I think they'll invade Taiwan unless those dollars, investment and trade is off the table. You are claiming or are implicitly claiming parallels with Russia/Ukraine in that China will invade Taiwan, then the West will pull out (therefore yadda yadda We might maintain Stronk Hands Like Diamond!). I'm saying China won't invade Taiwan because doing so will make the West will pull out (unlike Russia/Ukraine). A bit of a mixup on cause and effect. I don't think all companies dealing with China are actively pursuing reverse "deflationary globalization". That's a huge overreach you haven't explained further in depth (appreciate a link or concise bullet points if you do). Let's see what's on that list for onshoring (you can add more): semiconductors/microchips, lithium/rare earths, green tech such as EVs or windmills. Is that all of it? Is that causing "Big Inflation"? Vehicles (new/used as secondary effect) maybe. What else? What else has China deliberately held back pre/post covid that caused a spike in American prices at the table or even the CPI? Because I haven't seen Target, Walmart or Costco virtue signal that they're off loading their hard earned, decades-in-the-making Chinese suppliers for Red White and Blue Approved suppliers. Most of their complaints from supply chain restrictions have been from things related from Co...nahhh I said it too much already. They just aren't looking at the larger picture. I still think moving All the Things onshore is dumb and costly since it was brought up 3 years ago. That Foxconn plant in Wisconsin is a stillborn fetus/baby neither side wants or admit exists. We're going to have to pour a lot of taxpayer money and shady deals for the good vintage stuff like multibillion dollar microchip fab plants with multibillion dollar personnel and R&D. Things that don't make sense economically since TMSC makes pennies on the dollar as a Monopoly through super efficient processes across their entire life cycle with planned 5-10 yr phases. 2) This debate is getting stale...I added Decisions Decisions because Biden is overpromising what he can do with the economy and also his planned goals with humbling Russia...when those exact goals are being driven by Him and Only Him in the first place. It doesn't matter if or when Putie or XIXi will do it again. Trump broke convention and met with Kim Jong Il. He likely slipped him some multi-billion Landrys vouchers for the trouble, but are we really going to call it a failure? But that's a peas mint! Trump was president, yet he wasn't governed by the Principles or Rules you're making a case for. Hmm... Biden also virtue signals Going Green a lot at a time when Americans aren't having it. It's like he's saying everything while not conceding his current actions will screw Americans at the pump and their wallets. You know what...Obama virtue signalled going green until he took credit for the Oil and Energy boom from fracking. B-B-But deep sea drilling is bad folks. Very dirty. I've said it before, Americans don't give a **** about Russia or Ukraine when it comes to increasing costs. Are you going to patronize or belittle the public again by brushing them off and that their comprehension or discontent doesn't matter "in the greater scheme of things"? At least you're honest, and you have no chance of getting voted out. But please avoid public speaking. You can have the rest of the points. It's debatable and our posts combined broke the 10k character limit. Congrats reader, you're the real MVP. *It's funny you think I'm dodging about what grand expert me thinks about what "liberal world order" means. It's a wonky term foreign policy academics have used, much like CRT. The reactions to it have been visceral since the days liberals stormed police barricades at the 99 WTO meeting in Seattle. <--- Pssst This is what you are up against when you apologize for That Guy. Admitting that it's a "terrible job of communicating" while writing that wall of text kind of minimizes the point. It'd be like claiming Trump did a "terrible job of communicating" to Capitol Rioters when he explicitly stated that they should do it Peaceful and Patriotically.
I'm framing this as an issue that is the result of a confluence of policies and events dating back decades and some more recent (like the trade war). I also don't think we'd have this type of inflation without Covid, but whether a pandemic, a nasty solar flare, a catastrophic natural disaster, or a major war, it has shown how fragile our supply chains are. It certainly doesn't help that all of this is occurring during a trade war. They are pretty hostile with some of our allies in Asia like Japan, S Korea, and Taiwan, by constantly testing responses through flying and sailing through their space. Chinese and Russian warships recently sailed close to some disputed islands near Japan that we gave them after WW2. China is also buying up as much discounted Russian energy as it can. It's no secret that China wants to claim Taiwan and that Taiwan has prepared for such an event. Are you trying to say China will never invade Taiwan or haven't been preparing to do so? Do I think the Ukrainian invasion gave China second thoughts? Sure. But like Russia, who prepared for sanctions, China can do the same. Why would you think it's all companies? I'm merely stating an overall trend of globalization for the last several decades which made goods cheaper for American consumers. What? America imposed tariffs on China. We literally made imports from one of our largest trading partners more expensive..... Again.... it's a confluence of events. They certainly passed on the cost of tariffs onto consumers. "Virtue signal"... are one of those people who like to use that term? It is dumb.... Your hyperbole aside, I've never suggested we are trying to do that as I'm talking about trends. Ok? So is this more of you being anti Biden then? Last time I checked, Congress has to approve Ukrainian funding... did it? Yes? Then it's not being driven by him and only him in the first place..... What? What is your point? What did Trump achieve in North Korea? Nothing. North Korea is still moving forward with its nuclear ambitions and still testing it's capabilities. What is your point? This is becoming increasingly erratic and confusing the more you go along.... There's that "virtue signal" phrase again. So because Obama's and Biden's actions were more pragmatic than dogmatic you are upset? Weird, but okay. Biden pissed off both the conservatives and environmentalists by recently approving leases, some say it wasn't enough and others say it was too much..... I don't think the polling correspond to "not give a **** about Russia or Ukraine when it comes to increasing costs". Clearly, the longer the war goes on and the most it costs American's at the pump, the less support it will have (which is of course Putin's goal). The irony of course is before the Ukrainian War was even a thing, conservatives were trashing Build Back Better and the Infrastructure Bill, things that would actually benefit the American country. Even if there was no Ukrainian War, conservatives would be using inflation (like they used austerity) to not invest in America. Thanks? I was just asking what you thought it meant.... but the way you have responded speaks volumes. I think framing it as "Democracy vs Authoritarianism" would have been much better. The "liberals" who stormed the '99 WTO meeting isn't the same type of "liberal" as "liberal world order". Take care.
I'm missing something because I'm railing about high prices from inflation as a direct result of a supply chain breakages induced by covid, and you're pointing out one factor that didn't affect consumers as heavy as you're claiming. Again, most companies weren't shifting away from China because of their terrible morals. Most were looking to preserve their investment rather than appear patriotic. It hasn't affected inflation to the point of pain, so it continues to seem off tangent to me without direct proof. You'd be better off bringing up global warming as people can directly feel food prices. Mid tier android phones and 5G chips...not so much. When it comes to politicians or public servants influencing public opinion, virtue signal is appropriate. You don't really see me use that word with individuals outside of being sarcastic. Do you have a problem with that? I'm more disappointed...I can be that right? Or does that make me an apostate to shame? I've consistently stated what Biden needs to do...be less absolutist or speak in a more open and flexible manner that gives goals or targets for Americans to understand or tolerate. Weak rebuttal bringing up Congress. Trump passed a lot of ungodly things McConnell and his ilk would not have originally swallowed. Nope. You merely stated an overall trend of globalisation...when it was Trump that broke the previous trend and set the one you're bringing up. Is your mind blown? Do you think it fits when I use it? I don't care what Cons think. I do care how independents and people from middle America respond. It's like you're carrying water for your favorite team and don't even feel it. For all the talk about seeing the Bigger Picture, your attitude in these replies are myopic because you ultimately end up not being able to explain Democrat losses at elections. You brush aside the American public's intelligence, comprehension, or individual pain. There's a gut wrenching lack of empathy because your calculus of larger hypothetical numbers makes you feel you can claim the high ground. Voters just want food on the plate, affordable bills to pay, and a realistic price target for their next upgrade. When they see public officials tell them to eat it for obscure and easily misinterpreted terms, it's not the word itself that triggered them (you seem to tense up with Virtue Signal though lol), it's 100% the attitude reflected in That Guy's delivery. I'm getting old for this tit for tat debating style where every point is one tree rather than the larger forest. The paper in the link was actually wonky and would've satisfied your "persistent curiosity". Politics and words do shift. Not really a gotcha to claim "liberals" are used differently since Clinton totally embraced neoliberalism (which prioritized the "liberal world order" ideal by enhancing free market policies over domestic protectionary ["redundant" for Big Picture Trend Seers] measures) and pushed out the same unions and laborers that participated in the protests. Have a good one.
Because it's easy to absorb the cost of tariffs or on-shoring when the economy is going well. Inflation was rising pre Covid due to increased inputs and higher consumer goods, but could be absorbed due to the overall strength of the economy. The relatively low energy prices we had pre Covid was due to an unprofitable supply glut because US oil companies were too often drilling themselves into bankruptcy. While we had a short lived, domestic shale boom, the rest of the oil producing globe was lowering its capex which is contributing to the current environment. All of these things gave us very little capacity to deal with Covid and the effects after Covid when the world got itself out of quarantine. See above. It's really about the timing.... enacting tariffs when the economy is strong is one thing... but tariffs when Covid tests your supply chains is another. Tracking the Economic Impact of U.S. Tariffs and Retaliatory Actions It's hard to suss out intentions over an anonymous forum with someone I don't really know. Terms like "virtue signal" and "woke" have morphed into something else than their original intention. It's not my fault that conservative leaning folks have co-opted those terms to dismiss their political or cultural rivals. You are the one who essentially said Biden alone is driving this Ukrainian policy, when that's just not accurate. You brought up North Korea... a country we don't even trade with. Just because Trump is responsible for trying to reverse globalization (something I agree with somewhat but the devil is always in the details), doesn't mean his foreign policy with North Korea was any good or relevant. Not particularly. Why? What makes those folks so special? The Rust Belt part of middle america literally let the world pass them by, does rust usually happen slowly or quickly? I have my roots in East Texas and Southern Louisiana and while I love aspects of the culture, they are also very superstitious, provincial, and xenophobic. There's a lazy entitlement in middle america that just doesn't jive right with me; the history of this geographically large country is getting off your ass and moving to where the jobs are. I have no problem "picking a team" because that's how the political system is setup. I would love for more political parties to emerge, but third parties seem more interested in wasting their time with the presidency instead of building a coalition around municipalities or states to actual implement policy. See above. Democrats just have poor messaging and this country still loves the status quo. It's ironic because accountability and boot strapping is so important to our ideals, but at the end of the day people still love having someone to blame. Conservatives just have mastered creating enemies while also stoking status quo victimhood. Like I said, the history of this country is getting off your ass and moving to where the jobs are..... yet you have middle america clamoring for the system to tilt back in their favor. Just off putting.... Yea... they want simple answers to complex problems and preferably not have to work too hard or move too far for it. Virtue signaling for democracy over authoritarianism. Seriously, is that what this has come to? And we needed a balance instead of being overly "business friendly" / "neoliberal" or "protectionist" / "insular".
Nope, I still don't see it. https://www.minneapolisfed.org/abou...flation-calculator/consumer-price-index-1913- Annual CPI from 2016 to current Tariffs can be (neoliberal) bad in general with targeted items becoming more expensive, but we didn't see it move the needle with national inflation like you're claiming. Energy embargoes are in a different league... Apparently farmers are more pessimistic now than they were during the height of the trade war. https://ag.purdue.edu/commercialag/...oducers-contemplating-acreage-shifts-in-2023/ This is all despite world demand outpacing China's restrictions. lol Don't you find it interesting that most of the foreign leaders' talks with Putin hasn't been through a coalition but directly on phone/teleconference? The last summit was with Biden directly. Seems like Russia's not taking Europe seriously despite their active involvement with EU and NATO membership... I'm happy you grudgingly agree to the point that Presidents have largely dictated or spearheaded foreign policy, and that our foreign policy is not necessarily principled, rational, moral, or even self beneficial. It's a great relief for me and my time spent. I live in Southern California and I don't necessarily have to vote to get policies I want. The "Big Picture Simplified" is that those votes do matter, have mattered since time immemorial (thanks Iowa caucus), and if you want national results that jive with your ideals, then you better ****ing pay attention. People quickly forget Biden got a pitiful majority in Congress because while voters hated Trump, they still didn't like preachy idealists cramming values down their throats then being shamed for "voting against their interests". It's a very twisted and an ineffectual form of "gaslighting". (ooops, I didit agin!!) Real empathy through persistent engagement matters. It takes a little more than sussing out a particular usage of words. Oh, woe is you. If you think in binary maybe. These issues are rarely perfectly solved and neither side has a definite answer. Obama enabled China by prioritizing trade over human rights, and he also let Russia and the Middle East do their thing while he played his hand in domestic issues. Biden let Afghanistan melt like an ice cube in the summers of Kabul, but only a Jedi master could feel a great disturbance in the force when millions of voices suddenly cried out in terror. I'm not railing on those polices as right/wrong or successes/failures in this context. It's just how it happened. The Ukraine thread is pained and tortuous. Biden pours a spigot in arms and munitions, but has several strings attached that makes it a purely defensive war. Ukrainians can't fire deep into Russian railways, munitions dumps or staging areas. It's like they're stuck playing goalee for a shootout while time is running out (European Winter). And the gas embargo. What kind of half assed principled stand is that? We can't entirely quit Russia's gas, but we'll do everything to remind them how much we hate them? So every "restricted" gas trade w/ Russia is 3 points for Democracy and 1 point for Authoritarianism...A net postiive win for Democracy? After all that, you still want to sell that crap as "sacrifice" to the American people during an inflationary period unseen for 3 generations? That's called midterm bloodbath. So you are attempting to suss out my intentions but can't see the different shades of liberals and where they stand over time... Carry on.
That's fair, Trump's tariffs were enacted in March 2018 and they take time to impact the system. I still stand by my statement that tariffs are inflationary and add uncertainty but was wrong about them being net increase on inflation pre Covid. It was the perfect time to implement them as I said. So neoliberalism is generally bad then? Obviously, considering everything that energy touches. Why wouldn't they be more pessimistic now.... on top of tariffs and supply chain issues they were dealing with pre Covid.... they are dealing with more supply chain issues, risings energy and fertilizer costs, tariffs, and severe droughts and floods. Not really. EU council president has had talks with Putin. I'd say Russia losing its geographically closet and largest trading partner in the EU is taken very seriously.... LOL. Glad you grudgingly agree that it also take Congress (in this current case a split Congress) to implement foreign policy like sending arms to Ukraine or invading Afghanistan. Anti-fed. Anti-neo liberalism Anti- US foreign policy. It's starting to come together. So edgy. Who said they didn't matter? Why does someone from SoCal care about middle America, other than finding people that agree with a more isolationist policy? Our electoral system is still based on more agrarian times which is exploited. No... they prefer the traditionalist status quo and prefer Fox News type rhetoric. Progressives saying "defund the police" was a gift to heaven for 2020 conservatives. Such a costly blunder that affected down ballot Dems when crime was rising and riots were happening due to historical unemployment and police brutality. Which is what Fox News does for Middle America.... persistent engagement and pushing out election lie narratives and Biden hate America rhetoric. People love the reality Tucker Carlson and Laura Ingram provides them, as shown by the ratings. But hey.... middle americaz! Really hard for you decisively choose Biden over Putin or Xi or Mohammed bin Salman or Erdogan? Democracy has pros and cons no doubt but sometimes people just want a strong leader to push their own agenda and smite their foes. You are also leaving out a lot of context, like Obama implementing the first Chinese tariffs and Trump making a deal with the Taliban that gave us very little leverage because we had already moved a lot of military assets out of Afghanistan. So then what do you propose or what is your point aside from making vague generalizations? That we should be more authoritarian? Probably because Biden and Europe doesn't want to be engulfed in a larger, more destructive war. Ukrainians are still taking out ammo depots in Russian controlled areas which is hurting Russian logistics. For the same reason we don't send F35s to Taiwan is the same reason we don't send our most advanced arms and munitions to Ukraine. A principle steeped in realism. We can't outright quit Russia's energy because there's not enough to make up for it, so we are tapering off. Hopefully tapering off faster than Russia can built out its infrastructure to send energy east. I believe that "crap" is important, yes. I also believe Biden isn't the person to sell that to America. So then you find it acceptable that Russia takes Ukraine's largest agricultural region and expand its access to warm water ports. I'm sure Russia will never use energy and famine as a weapon again after seeing it works.... You think if we return to more isolationism that things outside our border will affect us less? Don't be too excited that the Greene's and Boeberts "church and state is sham" is gaining in popularity. But hey, maybe you think the 2020 elections were stolen? Based on what? You were incorrectly using "liberal" in the context of "liberal world order". The Democrats/liberals biggest issue is they are like trying to herd cats, in present times and in the past.
