Javier, Garcia, Urquidy up. Snell WAY DOWN. Trout down. While it may reflect values, most trades undervalue injury and performance risks which are multiplied with longer term contracts. The market has not yet given this risk a proper value, but Astro Ownership and a few players have. For us, 6 years appears to be the point of diminishing returns. The market will eventually catch up. I see there has been updating since the trade examples posted. Snell now at .7 where he belongs.
I bookmarked your reference and joined. But I'm having a little trouble navigating the Trade proposal entry. It's not as intuitive as it could be. It's like going to a sort feature that doesn't sort by players.
Navigating is easier when I realize the site is SLOW and give it time to refresh. It's like Draft Simulators which are fun to play, but rarely reflect insider knowledge the teams have at their disposal.
Yep, just be leery of using that site for much of anything. I'm not sure how it calculates the value of each player or how often it updates during the season, and there seems to be some wonky values to players. For example, Verlander has a value of 7.5, which firmly plants him in between Siri (5.6) and Jake Meyers (8.1). It also has Urquidy slightly higher than Bregman (13 to 12.8), and a bit higher than Javier (10.6). It also has Chas as having the 6th highest value on the Astros, trailing only Tucker, Valdez, Alvarez, Garcia and Pena (in that order). Certainly a fun site to play with, but not sure of it's value.
Some things have been said in here that I don't agree with, like we should desperately upgrade 1b or we need bullpen help. The idea of believing Yuli, a proven hard working guy, would go from one of the best to one of the worst in a couple of months because of age is wrong in my mind. This is not the 50s, where guys fell off a cliff because of age. Sports science and guys taking care of themselves have made primes last longer, and declines softer. Same with our bullpen. People just don't understand just how up and down bullpen performance is. Its literally 3/4 different arms, coming in a game to finish it off, and every single one of them has to be at least good, for you, the fan to not say "they suck". And from me, and the numbers back that up, our bullpen is elite. Now its obvious that if an opportunity arises, I am not opposed to it, but you are not, IMO going after these positions. Same as CF. Meyers looks good and comfortable right before Maldonado, and I trust him to get people home at all costs before Machete tries to (to be fair he has been quite clutch at the plate lately). I STILL believe that Contreras is it. I don't really care about contract situation or if Lee is the future, or Maldonado is a god in pitch calling. If we had a guy, as good as Contreras batting 7/8 or 9th, and the worst offensive weapon in our lineup, is him/Yuli/Meyers, how the **** don't you not justify a slight decrease in pitching performance (if you believe in the "Maldonado affect" on pitchers)? He can even DH sometimes for us, that is how solid he hits. One thing everyone agrees on when it comes to opening up opportunities for us in the trade deadline. We need Odorizzi to slay until then. If he does, we can be more aggressive using our SP depth (mainly Odo and Arquidy) for deals and upgrades that I am not even considering right now. Regardless, we need to be on every single Of the yankees will try to bid for and up the asking price. I am not afraid of them, but, if they fill the Galo hole easily with an elite/close to elite guy, that lineup gets a lot scarier offensively. SP wise I don't think they can hang with us.
I like the idea that excess value should incorporate the salary and contract length and not just go with Adjusted Field Value. Many fans want to balance the field value AND eat salary offsets. They must both be considered.ie treat it like the Power formula. Power = Voltage * Current. In this case, Value = Field Value minus Salary. This is why players under club control generally often have greater excess value than established stars who are getting large salaries. ie Altuve at -1.5M, even with his High Field Value. But long term contracts like Trout which appear to be great values are subject to large swings. If you reduce his field value to $30M AAV, The Bargain becomes and Albatros. He's still a great player, but overpaid in those circumstances. For those who might think Alvarez left money on the table, imagine if that collision last week ended his career before he reached FA. Tucker, on the other hand, may bet on his health and a big payday.
The MLB.com Astros beat writer came out with an article this week that pretty much said they were not going to trade for a catcher. There was already a lot of evidence that they weren’t looking in that direction but that pretty much solidified it for me. Now that the team is so hot, and Gurriel and Meyers are looking pretty good, and the Astros have 3 starting pitchers in JV, Framber, and Javier that look elite, I would expect them to stand pat and just make one move for a bullpen arm, and possibly trade from their starting pitching depth to improve the farm. There don’t appear to be any superstar players available and the fringey stars who are available will be prohibitively expensive.
Maldonado is no worse compared to the average catcher than Yuli is compared to the average 1B. The Astros will stick with Yuli because he's recovered to being tolerable offensively, but he is a very bad offensive first baseman. If not for the respect he has in the clubhouse it would be a stone cold lock that we would upgrade the position.
It just feels like Yuli is going to reverse to who he has been. Age may or may not be a factor but he just hits. I do agree that he would be up for replacement if he had not had the status in that clubhouse though. We are starting to see a bit of that opposite field approach again, and I think he may end up being fine in the long run. The Astros are in an interesting position with him. They could ultimately get better when he departs. It seems like the Astros have a few guys ready to take over in AAA.
Don't forget his D which helps all the other IFers look better. The question about upgrades at this point seem to be more about 2023 replacements that could add value this year as well. Not desperation rentals.
It fascinates me how many people will ignore a 38 year old having career worst numbers in basically every measurable, why would one expect him he revert to who he's been? I've said repeatedly I hope Yuli turns it on, but even most of his good hits are poorly stuck. Yuli was a hard line drive machine, and we only see those sporadically. Most of his hits are loopy liners now. I would say Maldy helps the pitchers quite a bit more than Yuli helps the defense. Josh Bell would be a major upgrade over Yuli, not desperation.
Nah, I think I'll say it again so you can cry about it again: all of these trade proposals are not good.
I'd love to see Maldy find a role with the Astros in a non player capacity at some point. Gurriel may or may not have hit a wall at 38. But after a batting title at 37, I would expect a rebound to a normalized downward slope as a more likely scenario.
Why does that not surprise me? Some do, some do not and just criticize those who do. But it's all a game, not anything serious anyway.
Yuli was this guy in 2020 and then followed up in 2021 with his best year yet. I am trusting that he will revert to who he really is as he has done it before.
Yep. They need to make use of their excess of MLB ready players that can't make the 40 man roster before they lose them for nothing under Rule 5 [both MLB and MiLB variants]. Filling in the gaps in Rookie and A ball when we didn't have 1st round selection could be a way.
2020 Yuli was the exact same player as before, just with bad BABIP luck due to a small sample season. He was striking out the same rate and hitting the ball just as hard. That's why Click signed him to the extension. He didn't have career worsts in pop up rate, strikeouts and exit velocity like this season.
