Thanks for posting. I'm surprised of your opinion but it all makes sense and as a person who wanted Smith #1 overall this year this makes me even more excited. Before this post I would've ranked Smith 4th overall in a 2021/2022 redraft, but I think now maybe 3rd. Still a lot to take in
The bulk of his points come from within 3 feet of the rim. He was very inefficient from further out. Look at the ts% by range that I posted
The biggest mistakes that GMs have made in the past, and some still continue to make, is the assumption that players can become better shooters. The idea is that once a player enters the league, coaches and trainers can fix their jumpshots. This often leads to misconceptions on what the actual ceiling is, because people are so much more focused on the theoretical ceiling. The idea that Mobley can shoot 3s is purely theoretical at this point, his college and NBA FT% and 3PT% do not suggest he has this ability at all just yet. I would argue Sengun is actually further along the way in terms of developing a 3 point shot than Mobley, since Sengun's shot 80%+ in the Turkish league from the free throw line, and is currently a 71% free throw shooter (both of which are better than Mobley's college and NBA FT%). Jabari on the other hand has a fantastic foundation to work off of in terms of scoring. He's an 80% free throw shooter and a 42% 3 point shooter, so even if he doesn't have Mobley's impact on defense, the floor spacing potential is off the charts. Jabari has far less work to do to become a key player on a championship team than Mobley.
We know how tall he is and how high and fast his release is, we can compare to others already in the league to know if others can contest his shot. We also know how well he shoots well contested shots. We don't know that he can't play in the post or drive to the rim or finish in the NBA. He never really tried those much things in college. And even if he can't do it now, we don't know if he will be able to by the end of the season. If we can't use college production to judge a prospect, what can we use for any of the other rookies?
Nothing you said about the individual players I disagreed with, but the conclusion Smith has the higher upside and it not being close wasn't the conclusion I expected. I would've thought if you picked Smith that it would be a pretty close call between the two. I'd assume both could be first team all defense players with Evan being more likely to be DPOY type of player because rim protection is so important. That's not to say Smith's edge on switchability isnt super important either. In today's NBA that's extremely valuable. So I agree that offense could very well be the difference maker. Currently I'd choose Smiths offensive game over Evans because Smith is and will be an elite three point shooter also capable of hitting deeper 2 pointers over most players. While I agree Evan gets assisted a lot of his points and his shooting % isn't that great outside 3 feet, I realllly don't think it'll stay like that. He has a nice touch, good form, and he really has surprised me a few times when he wants to get to his spot. I think the idea of Evan Mobley shooting 35% from three and having go to post moves is scarier than Smith shooting 40% from three but not being much of a threat down low. Obviously the game isn't played down low anymore but having a very reliable shot and counters is really important come playoff time. I do believe Mobley will develop into a low post offensive threat AND be a good three point shooter just based on his touch and form. Ultimately I really wouldn't call anyone foolish to think one or the other has higher upside and you mightve convinced me to sway a bit towards Smith because I really respect your opinion on this board. I guess the absolute highest, (granted not very likely) ceiling of Smith is some hybrid of Klay/K.Leonard which when I think about that... that's pretty terrifying.
Ok and? That's still not primarily a dunker. I never said he was great at 3 levels but he is much more than primarily a dunker, how about his playmaking? Nobody that dribbles the way he can is considered primarily a dunker.
Smith doesn’t “only” have a jump shot, that’s just his biggest tool. On the other hand, Mobley has an awful 3 ball and a terrible FT%, which severely limits his offensive and spacing upside.
I don't think that I have ever seen a more overrated player on here than Mobley. He's not that good. Barnes, yeah I'll give people that
Difficult one. Mobley is bigger and longer and that gives him an advantage at rim protection and finishing. Mobley is also right now the most versatile offensive player: he can play from the outside but also back to the basket and in the mid range. He's the better handler and passer. But he will never be the shooter Smith is... that's a huge advantage for Jabari. There's also an important factor, to me the most determinant, and it is the mentality and the toughness. I can see Jabari having an advantage over Mobley there (in fact, that's what kept Mobley away from being the 1st pick). That factor can also determine who progresses the most and ends up reaching his ceiling. Anyway, we're extremely lucky for having the Green+Jabari combo.
I agree with you. I think Mobley is what he is and will only have moderate improvement. I still don’t see the motivation needed to become special. His outside offense is not good at all. When JA got hurt his defense wasn’t that great either. JG was definitely the better pick than Mobley. Jury still out on Cade, but I really think JG will make a big jump this year on both sides of the court. 5 straight 30 pt games on good efficiency is no fluke.
What else does Smith have offensively? Mobley's weak points are things that can and have been improved in multiple players, you see players improve 3% and FT% all the time you don't see players improve dribbling and playmaking as much.
How much better are Mobley’s handles than Smith? I didn’t really see anything special offensively from Mobley. He will be a really good defensive player that averages between 15-18 pts his entire career. If Mobley can put on some muscle he could be a really good center. He will never be a great SF or PF because of his poor shooting that is unlikely to get anywhere close to Smith’s. Smith and JG are going to be better players than Mobley.
Smith’s offensive arsenal is quite solid. He hits from 3, has a nice dribble-drive-pull-up, solid fadeaway. He does okay at the rim, he just didn’t need to due to Kessler. I seriously doubt Mobley improves his 3 shot. That generally only happens when a prospect has a good FT percentage and poor 3 shot. Mobley is just bad at both.
LOL wut? Mobley has a far more advanced dribble package than Smith it's not even close. Mobley is not a Center it's clear you have no idea of what kind of player Mobley is.
