My wife has been stressed out lately and wanted a day with her friends, so that let me really sit down and dig even deeper in to Jabari Smith. I have had some posters message me asking my thoughts on him as a prospect and where he will need to improve. These are my thoughts: The first thing that strikes me about watching Jabari is that his upper body is very stiff. He walks very upright. He still moves fluid, but is a little boxy. This usually isn’t good, ideally big men move like men a foot shorter than them. His frame is excellent, as good or better than anyone his size in the draft. He has very wide shoulders and a triangular mid section. He will easily put on muscle and has the frame to be very strong. While I don’t think he should add a lot of weight, he isn’t going to be physically weaker than whoever he is matched up with. His arms are average for a man his size. He doesn’t have really long arms like Durant or Harden or Leonard. I think having only a 7’0” wingspan hurts his ability to dribble but also likely helps his shooting stroke being easily replicated. As an athlete he is more of a smooth athlete that relies on above average speed for a man his size and good use of his lower body. He isn’t a freak like Garnett but more like a Karl Anthony Towns. His hands are soft and while it sometimes takes him a split second to react to what’s happening on the court, he usually has the right response. He isn’t a Jalen Green type athlete but he can move and control his body and that is something under appreciated with bigs. I use the term bigs loosely because he doesn’t play like a typical big. On the defensive side what immediately catches my eye is that he gets low defensively as well as any man his size that I have seen and he doesn’t do it like Hakeem who would do it when someone is straight up next to him, he does it the entire play. This was shocking because he walks so upright and stuff that I didn’t expect that fluidity. This is a really big deal in the modern NBA because of switching. He can guard 3 positions really well now and at least shooting guards for a short period of time. His defensive anticipation appears average for the NBA level but he also hustles well and knows angles intuitively. He doesn’t appear to like to get physical defensively but part of that could be that Auburn had a great physical center. His effort and feet (while not explosive) are really impressive and even better than advertised. I found him overall defensively to be better than expected. I don’t think he will ever be a defensive player like Leonard or Ron Artest. However I do think he can be the best non post defender on a contender. He can be similar to Paul George defensively and that’s top 10% in the league. Offensively it’s more of a mixed bag. The positives are as follows: The shot is as good as advertised and he can shoot from just about anywhere and in high volume. He has zero fear to shoot either. He has a chance to be one of the 5 best shooters in the league with continued growth. More importantly than his ability to shoot is that he is the VERY rare player that can get his shot against and over anyone. He is very much like Durant in that way. From 3, from mid distance, from the logo - he is going to get his shot off and it will be uninterrupted. This quality is HUGE deep in the playoffs. This is the most exciting attribute he has. He can take and make breath takingly hard shots. He regularly shot over double teams as well. Now the negatives are that he isn’t a great or even good finisher inside. He tends to hesitate and doesn’t really like contact. He isn’t a freak athletically off the ground so he tends to prefer to operate in the middle to outside. He doesn’t have very good shot selection. Because he can make hard shots, he often settles for them. He also isn’t great at finding open teammates. He is far from a black hole but he isn’t like Banchero or James where they find open cutters easily. He does have some room to grow though. I hear a lot of people say he isn’t a shot creator. Well it depends on your definition. You can put the ball in his hands and he can create a shot for himself. However he does need someone else to get him the ball. Typically he gets it at the key and shoots over everyone or in the mid range where he shoots a fall away. Ideally he would become a really good ball handler and you run the offense through him, but that’s not happening. It is important but not a death sentence. Curry and Michael Porter and Durant and others are elite players, scorers and don’t run the offense like Harden or Paul do. As a rebounder he is good enough. Because he operates on the perimeter so much he doesn’t get boards at an elite level but he gets his fair share. His lack of elite wingspan keeps him from being a top shot blocker but I think he can be sneaky good because he lost some blocks to Kessler at Auburn. As for the mental/personality part: He comes across as fairly serious and someone that is big on preparation and hard work. His father is know as a stable disciplinarian. Smith went to good schools and has a very involved family and is generally viewed as a good family. He doesn’t have the “it” magnetism that people like Jordan or Kobe or even Banchero have. However, his personality is more like Steph Curry or Tim Duncan. He doesn’t appear scared of the big stage. He has been described as someone that can be hard on himself but he has high expectations. Overall Jabari Smith is a better prospect than I knew (and I knew him fairly well). There are some limitations to his game as a creator for others and dribbler but his strengths as a shooter and ability to shoot over everyone are so strong that I don’t think it will matter. I expect him to be a 20-28 point a game scorer with reasonable improvement and development. He also has a lot of secondary skills that help winning. While Chet and Banchero have skills that Smith don’t have, Smith is arguably the best long term fit for the Rockets. Sengun especially benefits.
He isn’t Durant and he definitely has limitations because he cannot create for others or consistently put the ball on the floor… it’s what kept Robert Horry from being a star. Usually the fact that a player has limitations matters a lot, but I don’t think it matters as much with Smith because he is such a good shooter and can shoot over anyone. The fact he can at anytime pull up and shoot is huge.
He still has shown zero repertoire on offense outside of jumpshots and we can't act like he has more but never got to show it because of spacing. And I think it's a bit silly to act like he somehow has a much deeper toolbag than we know but just because of the system couldn't even once show any real post-moves or a good drive game. I also watched most game summaries and he wouldn't even drive 9/10 times when defenders at the 3pt line totally overcommitted and he could've gotten a good path to the basket, instead settling for a highly contested 3.
Agree if he can replicate his great contested fg% in NBA, my point is more that the comparisons and people doing everything to downplay his lack of a repertoire is getting a bit absurd here. No shame in admitting he's still very raw outside of jumpshooting and defense and that the comparisons ppl throw up here were more developed during their NCAA times.
Duke didn’t have great spacing either. I agree that Auburn lacked shooters. I have seen every field goal Smith took at Auburn… while the spacing was bad and Smith did get doubled, he also wasn’t very good finishing inside compared to someone like Holmgren or Banchero. Smith isn’t terribly fast off the ground, he doesn’t trust his dribble in heavy traffic and he doesn’t have an insane wingspan… Doesn’t really matter to me as much as it normally would because Smith is an elite shooter and can shooter over any defender.
Do you think Jabari can get a decent handle? he doesn't have to become super good like KPJ/Green but decent enough to where you could maybe put it in his hands when he one on one and he could beat his man not all the time but depending on the match up?
Good write up @Nook. Jabari has some weaknesses on offense that limit his absolute upside, it’s not so much his lack of shot creation since as you said he can shoot over anyone, it is his lack of ability to break down a defense. This is fundamental in creating advantages on offense, putting pressure on the rim which collapses the defense. On the other hand, Jabari is underrated in some things. 1. His defense was not just good, but 90 percentile in all aspects as measured by synergy. Jabari and Sengun is a duo made in heaven I also think his rim protection and shot blocking will increase next to Sengun vs Kessler (best shot blocker in all of college). In highschool Jabari averaged 3 blocks a game. 2. Everyone knows he is an elite 3pt shooter, but I’m not sure everyone grasps what that means. Being great at shooting 3s has an oversized impact on winning, this is why the nba has trended towards more 3s the last 20 years, it is the most advantageous and important shot in basketball. 3. Jabari is 6 months younger than Paolo and a full year younger than Chet. Think about where Ivey was last year vs this year, that’s the difference a full year can make. Age is hugely important in evaluating prospects. 4. Paolo and Chet have been 1a and 1b in their class for years. Jabari really came on the scene at Auburn and took college basketball by storm. His growth the last few years have been tremendous. Trajectory is something I value a lot in evaluating prospects as well, perhaps even moreso than production. Jabari has both, production (one of the highest bpm for freshman) and trajectory.
This is true, but often times last year I think we needed a player like jabar that wasn’t looking to make plays every time he touched the ball. I don’t think Jabari is going to carry a team, but if we are starting Sengun, Tate, Green and KPJ that’s already 4 guys who you can give the ball to and do things. I don’t think he has to be a team carrying type player for this to have been an extremely good pick for the team. Of course if he can at least develop the ability to get and consistently hit his own shots with dribble pull and post ups that would be a game changer.
I do. I think his handle is really already good enough for that. I think he just needs refinement. Like a player like Aldridge or even dirk…they weren’t out there dribbling and dishing through traffic and driving past their guys from the three point line… I think he already has the tools and a good enough handle to get his shot with dribble pull ups and post ups. I don’t think he ever has to develop embid or Poalo type handles.
Rockets kinda looking like the Twolves KPJ-Dlo Green-Edwards Smith/Sengun-Towns (shooting wise/post) Christopher-Beasley Let's sign Beverley to a back up role lol Eason can be our Vanderbilt
Jabari also likes to be coached hard. And his teammates all love him. He may not have "it" but he has "something" that inspires people.
After having watched every shot he took last season in the film session video, this shot chart makes a lot of sense. Jabari didn‘t get easy buckets -at all. Of all his shots maybe 5 were in transition, and in maybe 5 more he was at least close to open inside the 3pt line. All other shots were contested, most of them heavily. Why is that? Two things: 1. Like others have said, there was no spacing - the paint was always stacked 2. Basically all of his shots inside the arc were self created - as in, he gets a normal pass, takes a couple of dribbles and either pulls straight up, shoots a turnaround or fadeaway. He doesn‘t get screens, and nobody passes him open. Really, its a wonder that his FG% is what it is with the kind of shots he was taking. His only open shots came from the 3pt range (and even here most were contested - with the kind of 3pters he takes, he should be nowhere close to 40%. In the NBA he should get a lot better shots). So first thing we should work on: give him easier shots. Use screens, cuts and dribble penetration by KPJ/Green to give him open looks. I would also say his „bad handles“ are overblown. His handles are fine - not a strengh for sure, but the reason he wasn‘t driving more to the basket was more the stacked paint and he really seems to like his contested midrange shot. He needs more finess finishing at the basket through traffic, but it‘s not as horrible, as people make it out to be. He did make some tough shots through contact. But he rarely uses his dribble to create better shots. This is the area, which he needs to work on. He didn‘t use step backs, he rarely used crossovers - he should be able to do both. If we compare him to Green real quick: Green also incorporated the midrange into his game - but he mainly took open midrangers (because he either drove by people that defended his 3pt shot or punished people that played of him to defend him getting to the rim). Jabari won‘t ever get the quickness of Green, but people will defend his 3pt shot - if he gets tad better here, he should be able to drive past overeager defenders giving him open long midrangers (which he definetly should take). After watching some of Paolos film session - he did get a lot of better shots in the midrange, by his teammates. That‘s why you can‘t just compare FG%s. But Paolo is clearly better at creating space for himself (and of course passing - I still like Paolo a tad more). One thing that did worry me: he sets screens like Christian Wood. I hope we can correct this, because he should be lethal in the PnR game. They didn‘t use it often in Auburn, which I don‘t understand, but I hope we can get him to set better screens and then work both as a roller or of course pop out to the 3pt line. To me it looks like most of the tools are here already - but the gameplans and maybe overall coaching in Auburn didn‘t help him. I hope he didn‘t develope too many bad tendencies (like settling for contested long midrange shots and setting poor screens) and we can correct them.
Highly contest shots are still efficient shots for Jabari. This is an elite trait. And he is also ridiculously efficient when he is not defended.
