Better player now… maybe. I don’t think that matters when you believe in your program to develop talent. It’s not what they look like now, it’s how they will look towards the future. From what his work ethic shows, he will work on his limitations. Got to remember this kid is that skilled and he just turned 19
Smith has ZERO dribble game as opposed to refining a dribble to reach potential and Tatum had a more advanced dribble-drive game.
Paolo can't play defense nor shoot. Also for someone his size and can get to the rim any time, he had a lower FT% than Jabari
A taller better shooting Paul George is probably a Top 50 all time player. If Jabari can develop a handle that defenses have to at least respect then the sky is the limit for him. His shot is unguardable, he stretches the floor like few other players can and plays tenacious D. If Jabari develops even a passable handle....
But I think that could be a positive? He has put in the reps on his shot and defence and has outstanding technique on both. Who is to say his dribble game won't improve with work? Banchero has a much more refined dribble game, but not the shooting touch or defensive intensity. I am of the opinion that shooting mechanics can be taught, but not 'feel' (ie there is a reason Chef Curry makes more than most anyone else ever) There are very few finished products at 19. Obviously there are some no-brainers in some years - but looking back at the history of pick 1s, most need work in one area or another. Since 2003 it seems perhaps only LeBron and AD might have been classified as finished products? But then again you might argue that both guys never had more than a passable stroke from 3 in their career? Tl;dr I'm not worried about Smith's dribbling (yet). Unless there is something genetic that prevents him practising, then we might expect improvement?
I had Jabari 3rd on my prospects list, but I would say that he's easily the safest pick of the top 3, so I'm not mad at this at all. The reason for that is his weaknesses aren't the sort of weaknesses that would ever be a net negative to the team even in a playoff series. His lack of dribble and rim attacking abilities are things that could end up limiting him to being a 3 and D wing, but 3 and D wings are some of the most valuable players in this league. Those two weaknesses won't ever get him played off the floor in the playoffs like a lack of perimeter defending and switchability on defense or a paint hogging space killer on offense can. And with Paolo there were some questions (at least for when playoffs come around, where everything changes), can he get better and quicker on defense so he could actually switch and not be a target for the opposing team? I was betting on Paolo's offensive ability being enough to make him a net positive, but there's absolutely a world where Paolo just can't be a super important player on a championship team because he'd be exploitable. I don't think Jabari is exploitable. So the floor is a guy who makes 3's at an incredibly high rate, better than anyone in this draft, and can defend nearly anyone and switch well. His only other sort of weakness is he hasn't shown rim protecting ability, which he didn't need to do at Auburn, but he wasn't drafted to be a center, his skills allow him to play with nearly any center in the league, specially including Sengun who I think can be maximized here. And the ceiling? Well if he develops the rim attacking ability and dribble, he's suddenly one of the most dangerous players in the league on offense, a KD like force on offense. Or if he develops the ability to rim protect, you open up the ability to play him at the 5 on defense, and on offense have a ridiculous amount of space for players like Jalen, KPJ, and Tari Eason to attack the rim. Think how insanely efficient Russell Westbrook looked in 19-20 after we traded Capela and pre-bubble/quad injury with the lane wide open for him to attack the rim, Jalen could do that but even better because Jalen can also drain 3's. You could see Jalen putting up 30 points a game on insane efficiency, with Jabari on the perimeter to kick out to for open 3's that will go in at insane rates. And you do that WITHOUT losing our rim protection and rebounding like we lost on that team. And if he develops both, well, you have a top 5 player in the league that allows you some of the most line-up versatility in the league. But if he develops neither, you still get an insanely good 3 point shooter who also instantly ups our defense and a guy who can absolutely play big important minutes on a playoff team and be a net positive all around, and that's still really good. Go look at how many top 5 picks in the last 10 years have been busts, I can tell you Jabari is one of the most bust proof guys I've seen drafted. My only caveat is that I don't think he's likely to hit that ceiling. If I was a betting man, I'd bet on him ending up that 3 and D guy rather than a game changer, which is why I put him 3rd, because I felt like as a worst team in the league sort of team, we should be taking home run swings and Paolo and Chet felt like bigger home run swings, I felt both more likely to hit their ceilings. But, we have talent already and room to add more talent, with a warchest of increasingly valuable Brooklyn picks and about to have a lot of cap room, so there's much worse things we can do than adding a sure fire contributor that fits in incredibly well to our lineup.
That is why I have been fascinated by him all year. I honestly think a taller Tatum is possible. BUT he needs to do the work on his handle. If he can't do it, then he is just about the ultimate 3nD guy anyway...
There's something classic about his shot that I can't explain. I see him come down and shoot and I get some Bernard King vibes. I'm not in any way saying that he and King are similar players, but I get a vintage feel to how he moves and shoots that reminds me of older school greats, rather than current players. Even though the reality is that he's a tight handle away from some real KD ****.
Paolo is better in virtually every shooting stat inside of the 3 point line. Also, we probably shouldn't completely ignore the fact that Jabari is a 3/D guy that can't dribble. There's a reason he dropped to 3, and there's a reason we tried to trade up when we discovered he wasn't going to be picked 1 or 2.
Yeah, that's not the concern. He can basically create his own shot whenever he wants given his height and ability to shoot. It's more about how he creates that shot, and how that impacts the overall offensive scheme, the other players and the opposing defense. In short, I don't really ever expect him to turn into a consistently strong dribble drive guy. But Kawhi as the ultimate comp isn't "really" that either... its a guy that gets it at the wing and can take 2-3 dribbles into the lane, or gets a high post and do the same, while drawing some guys to him to create passing lanes. I did see Jabari start to get doubled a little toward the end of the season and he did a decent job of passing out of it... BUT generally most of the shots he is creating is just one on one, lack of an extended move, and as a result the opposing defense doesn't scramble a ton or if at all. So the question is can he develop that 2 dribble drive game which requires the defense to shift towards him and creates those lanes?
I will counter with the question why is his dribble game so bad currently? So either he does not have this great work ethic everybody raves about or he is just so bad he gave up on trying to improve. Or even more scary he thinks he does not need to have one. Nobody is a finished product but nobody usually has such a huge hole in their game when drafted that high. Everybody keeps saying they aren't worried and that all he needs to do is practice, then why has he not put in the work to get better, most others have done it when they reach this level. Banchero and Holmgren did it. So once agin I ask why is so bad at it and we have not even addressed how terrible he is at the rim. Once again I think he was the guy who should have been picked at this spot but I am not going to just wave away the huge holes in his bag.
I'm gonna pray that shot translates to the NBA. He wasn't my first choice, but he's a Rocket, so he's my favorite pick.
One more thing I'll add- At least offensively, I absolutely see Jalen Green as our 1A option guy. I did really think Paolo could be his 1B, and having two stars like that would be huge. I'm not confident that Jabari can be that, again part of why my personal rankings had Jabari 3rd. I'm now still keeping my eye out to hopefully sign, trade for, or draft that 1B guy or guy that could be the 1B guy (because Jalen still needs some time too). But I'm not disappointed, because if we found that guy then Jabari would be an absolutely perfect compliment. I do think that Jabari, KPJ, and Sengun all have potential to be that guy if they develop correctly and reach their ceilings, but I'm not betting on that right now. Hell even Eason has a really high ceiling if he can get his shot down and start playing with a better bball IQ, but I'm not betting on that either.
Great post and a very healthy way to look at it. My pie-in-the-sky hope is that Sengun develops into a Banchero type of guy he has some of that skill set just not the mid range.
It's not only the dribble drive that separates Kwahi but the ability to finish in traffic which Smith has not shown.
I agree about how he will get to his spots to score. He reminds me a lot of Jerami Grant on offense. Grant started working on his handle and shot creation late. He also takes a lot of pull ups and it’s not very paint oriented. Jabari is a much better 3 point shooter though. If Grant could average 20ppg and be an all star I think there is a path for Jabari. To expect a 6’10 guy to just develop a handle or passing instincts though is a little much… that is very, very rare. It’s really hard to develop those skills in the NBA and if you are trying to do that at 6’10 well…. Paolo had been playing guard his whole life, Jabari has not. It’s likely a reason he went #1. Happy to have Jabari and Tari though. Defense is much easier to conceptualize and we don’t have to worry as much about Sengun.
Ultimate 3 and D guy is such a weird thing. I see him as maybe a less lethargic Klay Thompson. His shot is automatic. It's like....Steph Curry level of busted. Where Steph excels is that he can kill you on drives. Jabari can't and likely won't. So he's going to have to be more of a Klay Thompson type of guy. But his presence unlocks the rest of the team. He makes Jalen better. He makes Sengun better. Steph isn't nearly as good without Klay there. Jabari will essentially do that for Jalen Green. I think drafting him and Tari/TyTy totally opens up the rotations. There's so many different things you can run now.
