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Nook's 2022 Draft Big Board

Discussion in 'NBA Draft' started by Nook, Jan 13, 2022.

  1. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Go Stros!
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    Feeling pretty good about this list of mine from January. I've soured a lot on Davis. Guys like Dyson, Sochan rose up for me as there is a chance they add shooting. Paolo dropped down and then back up. Though Paolo is still not a part of the big 2 in my opinion, and the rise is partially Murray dropping.
     
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  2. Nook

    Nook Member

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    Okay.... this is my last update and because I am short on time with work I am going to do what I expect the draft outcome will be based on what some people have told me and a lot of it is based on just my opinion.

    1. Orlando
    Jabari Smith - Chet got a lot of consideration at #1 and there were a lot of supporters in Orlando, but they decided they want the sure thing in Smith who earned a lot of praise for his work ethic.
    2. OKC
    - Homgren is who OKC would have taken #1 in this draft. They love Ivey as well and are fascinated by Sharpe. Don't be stunned if OKC is very active.
    3. Houston
    -The Rockets all along have suspected they would get Banchero. They sent out feelers on Holmgren and they were rebuffed. It is Banchero over Ivey.
    4. SAC
    - They really want to trade into the top 3 but that isn't happening. They have Ivey at the top of their board but Ivey refused to meet or work out with them and they were recently told by Ivey's agent to not draft him.
    This pick is very much available in trade, but I think that Monte McNair doesn't get to make the call, ownership wants Keegan Murray because he wants to go to the Kings. So it's Keegan Murray.
    5. Detroit
    - They get the steal of the draft and take Jaden Ivey.
    6. Indiana
    - They will try to trade up to number 4-5 to get Jaden Ivey. They will likely offer Brogdan and other assets but I don't know that Sacramento is willing to risk getting Murray and stands pat. The Pacers then shift and consider trading the pick with Ivey and Murray off the board. If they keep it, I think that they take Shaedon Sharpe because of his upside. The Knicks would like to move up to #6 to get Sharpe as well.
    7. Portland
    - Portland wants to trade this pick for an elite wing, but I don't think it happens. They also supposedly are open to taking a high risk/high reward player after the Grant deal. The would take Sharpe if he is here, but with him off the board I think they pivot to Dyson Daniels or Benedict Mathurin. It is a toss up but I think they take Mathurin because he can already shoot.
    8. New Orleans
    - Do they take someone like Duren that is on the board? I think they go with Dyson Daniels.
    9. San Antonio
    - They are actively trying to trade up with this pick and their two other ones as well. A lot of the players they want are already off the board. They like Terry a lot, but this is too high. I don't believe the rumors linking them to Duren. I think that they decided between Ousame Dieng and Jeremy Sochan. The offensive upside of Dieng is higher and I think that is who they take if they cannot make a trade.
    10. Washington
    - They want a player to help them NOW, but they also are open to a soft rebuild for players with real upside. A lot of those guys are already off the board. Jalen Williams is possible here, so is Sochan. I think that Duren and Sochan are the most likely choices. NY could try to move up here to get Duren but when it is all said and done I think the Wizards go with Sochan because he fits well with Beal.
    11. NY
    - They love Sharpe and other high upside guys. They have some center talent already but Jalen Duren has star upside and they take him.
    12. OKC
    - Johnny Davis is still on the board and his poor play down the stretch was because of injury, but he doesn't fit what OKC wants to do. So who do they take? Dalen Terry from Arizona.
    13. Charlotte
    - Mark Williams? Maybe... Jalen Williams is possible. However I think that they raise some eyebrows and take AJ Griffin, which upsets those that are fans of Bridges.
    14. Cleveland
    - They are a candidate for Griffin as well if he is on the board. A lot of the guys that they want are gone. Do they go Tari Eason? I think they take Johnny Davis.
    15. Charlotte
    - Mark Williams is a nice fit here.
    16. ATL
    - They are going to be active and they may not even have this pick. If they keep it, I think that they take Tari Eason or Ochai Agbaji at this point in the draft. They also could be looking at Jalen Williams. I think the size of Tari Eason wins out.
    17. Houston
    - Most the players they really wanted are gone by 17. There is Branham, Washington and Williams on the board. I think they surprise people and take Jalen Williams over the players they have been linked to.
    18. CHI
    - They are trying to make a few big trades with Utah. Assuming that doesn't happen, they need better defense. They have a full backcourt but also have a coach that will make it work. They choose Ochai Agbaji narrowly over Jake LaRavia and Marjon Beauchamp.
    19.MIN
    - They are serious about moving Towns to the 4 to improve the team defense, but there is no one here worthy of the pick that plays the 5. They have had discussions with Atlanta about Clint Capela. Looking at the board I think they take Jake LaRavia.
    20. San Antonio
    - They don't want this pick, they decide to take Branham over a couple of international prospects.
    21. Denver
    - Defense and depth is what they want. Ty Ty Washington gives them both.
    22. MEM
    - They were close to being the best team in the league by the end of the year. They have some contracts coming up and want tough but athletic guys that can guard multiple spots. They could go international here but I think they go with Kennedy Chandler because of his upside.
    23. PHI
    - Morey will do everything possible to move this pick to get help now. On the off chance he keeps it, I think that he will go with Ziga Samar from Slovenia with the hope to bring him over later or deal him in a package.
    24. Milwaukee
    - They need to retool some as teams adjusted to their size. Christian Braun has the athleticism and attitude to fit.
    25.SA
    - Not a pick they want to make, but they take best available player and draft EJ Liddell.
    26. HOU
    - Jean Montero is a real possibility here. However, the upside of Jaden Hardy is too much to pass up.
    27. MIA
    - Herro isn't going to be in Miami long. Riley is making this pick, Bryce McGowens it is.
    28.GS
    - Surprise! Max Christie.
    29. MEM
    - They go with Trevor Keels.
    30. Denver
    - This is wide open. Blake Wesley makes a lot of sense.



    *** This year there are a lot of teams trying to make trades and that is going to greatly impact the draft, so I am sure my board is going to be way off. I filled it out on the false premise that teams are keeping their picks. So this board should just be taken for fun. I didn't have time to do a top 50 list like in the past where I ranked the players.... I filled my board out with great information from Sacramento and good information from sources with the Rockets and the Bulls. Even with all that said, it is like dominoes and any change ahead of teams changes the whole board.

    The Thunder are trying to trade up for another lottery pick to take Ivey....... the Pistons are open to trading up to #4, but it isn't likely. Sacramento is willing to do anything that helps them win next year, but the offers have been underwhelming. The Pacers and Knicks both also want to move up. The Rockets want to move up with their second #1 pick to ensure they get one of a small group of players.... San Antonio doesn't want to use three #1's and would like to move up a few spots as well.

    Memphis is willing to trade their picks for established players or future picks. Portland is trying to trade their pick for a good player as well and Atlanta has scouted this draft heavily based on possibly moving part or all of their front court.
     
  3. BigMaloe

    BigMaloe Contributing Member

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    Thanks as always for all the insight and info. Also, thanks for taking the time to put this together.

    Im curious what that "small group of guys" is for houston. I assume its targetting a wing like keegan, mathurin, griffin, eason, dieng and dyson.

    Also interesting to hear Williams over TyTy but i dont hate it.

    I expect a very active and busy trade season tonight, so thats exciting. Seems like every year there is a lot of reports of trade desire, but this year feels different and more likely to happen.
     
  4. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Go Stros!
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    Terry going to OKC would annoy me. I see him and Williams as being very interesting though I've not really watched/paid attention to them except after the season (so limited to clips/stats/reports instead of watching games).
     
  5. Nook

    Nook Member

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    I remember talking about this draft with someone that is a coach at the collegiate level and the name of Mathurin came up. I said that I thought he would end up being a top 10 pick and said he had good size, good instincts etc. The coach got quiet, and looked at me and said "Why is he better than Terry? I'm not an NBA scout but why is Mathurin a top guy and Terry isn't even a prospect?".... We talked about it and agreed with him after watching Terry more. I think that Mathurin is more polished and used to a bigger role, but Terry does a lot of things well and has huge upside.

    Williams is a boom or bust guy to me. He is older and he isn't from a big school but he has a very well rounded game and has a massive wingspan. If he sticks in the NBA he is likely going to be able to contribute well on both sides of the ball.

    The appeal of a guy that can shoot well from the perimeter, pass and handle the ball, can cut some to the basket and can switch at 6'6" because he has an almost 7'3" wingspan is really valuable. He can guard multiple positions.
     
  6. DrNuegebauer

    DrNuegebauer Member

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    For me Jalen Williams shot is possibly too slow to release, and possibly his defence isn't going to be up to scratch.

    He still should be on the cusp of the lottery, very nice size and length to play that 3 spot and with playmaking ability there is room to grow
     
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  7. Rudyc281

    Rudyc281 Member

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    Not sure if you already posted your breakdown for Jabari @Nook but I always love your takes and wonder what are your thoughts on Jabari??

    Did the rockets draft a “Star”??
     
  8. travfrancis

    travfrancis Member

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  9. Rudyc281

    Rudyc281 Member

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  10. BigMaloe

    BigMaloe Contributing Member

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    Ahh i pleasantly await my favorite time of year. Nooks big board
     
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  11. Nook

    Nook Member

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    I will try to post my list in the next week. I haven’t been able to watch as many guys in the 25-35 range because I have been very busy this year.

    I have seen at least 75% of the games player for everyone in my top 10. Most I have seen at least some game tape from college. I have talked to some people around NBA, primarily with the Rockets and Bulls about these players, but more so with college coaches or former coaches (assistants mostly).

    Before I post my list, a few observations. This draft is not the best or deepest draft I have seen but it may have the most upside in the top 10 that I have seen. If we take the best outcome for the top 10 in the draft, this one is near the top over the last 10-15 years. There are a number of players with All NBA potential. Wembanyama is the best prospect since LeBron James. The only other one I think there is an argument for is Anthony Davis.

    The second highest upside in this draft isn’t Scoot Henderson or Brandon Miller. It is Amen Thompson because of his elite athleticism, size, passing ability and motor. Amen Thompson has a massive red flag with his shooting, but he is good to great at just about everything else.

    The point guards in the top 20 are very strong. What they lack in depth, they make up for upside.

    Brandon Miller isn’t Kevin Durant, but he is probably what Marvin Williams and Harrison Barnes were supposed to be - high scoring forwards that have a handle and can score from three levels. Not sure he will ever be the facilitator of the absolute greats, but he can be a 8-10 time all star if he stays healthy and off the court issues are out of the way.
     
  12. Rokman

    Rokman Member

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    I'm really curious about what you are hearing will be the Top 3. Does Scoot possibly fall to 4 or are do your sources still see him as a guaranteed Top 3 prospect? Is there anyone else you think may be better than him like Whitmore, Hendricks or Walker?
     
  13. Rokman

    Rokman Member

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    I'd like a Point Guard with the 4th Pick if possible (ideally Scoot. If Amen could shoot then I would be fine with him too but I see too much Simmons in him). Then I'd like to see a legit 7 footer (Lively) with the second pick. I think we may have to trade up to 12 - 15 to snag him and I could see the Rockets packaging Martin and #20 to move up to that range. I think Martin has enough attention now to be a good trade chip. With Tate back we don't need Martin so much but Lively would be a nice get to bring some real size and paint defense along with the fact that he is a lob threat.
     
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  14. OremLK

    OremLK Member

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    Thanks Nook... I'll be looking forward to your list. I've been saying this could be the best draft class since '03 so glad to hear you're thinking along the same lines. Some tremendous upside in the top half of the lottery this season.
     
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  15. Nook

    Nook Member

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    1. Victor Wembanyama -
    He is the best basketball prospect since LeBron James and maybe Anthony Davis.

    Positives: He has tremendous size, coordination, underated leaping ability and with his shoulders has some potential to add muscle without a lot of weight. He has the smooth movements in his body and coordination that leads me to believe that he will learn to be at least a good enough perimeter shooter. He runs the floor well, and has shown the ability to pull up, hit step back shots.

    He really hasn't shown a lack of aptitude for anything on a basketball court. There is nothing that you can point to and say he will not be able to do it, or that he really needs to improve at. At this point his game overall just needs further progression and polish. There are very few players in NBA history that we can say that about.

    Negatives: The most obvious is more of a potential negative than an actual negative. He is such a large human and plays so much on the perimeter, that there are going to be inevitable questions about his ability to avoid injury. He has never played an NBA schedule, and until he does, there will be questions. This season he has played all the games, but in the past he has missed some games.

    Another negative is that it could take him awhile to put it all together smoothly. He is so good at so many things, that his focus will likely be split amongst a lot of skills and that can make him take a little longer to develop. Yao Ming had a similar issue. Rudy Tomjanovich was willing to be more patient and wanted Yao to develop all of his skills, while Jeff Van Gundy forced Yao to focus on only 3-4 skills. It will be curious to see what San Antonio does about this issue.

    The last possible negative is that Victor knows how good he is and has made it clear that he will not accept a coach that tells him how to play or limits him to traditional interior roles. He is insistent on being the ball handler and playing on the perimeter. He can also at times be backed down by strong and well skilled bigs.

    Ultimately, Victor is the most talented player to enter the NBA in 20 years, but there are some real questions about how his career will play out. He is a unique player, no one like him has ever played before.

    2. Scoot Henderson -
    Scoot Henderson has a lot of gifts and talents, and in some seasons he would be the #1 prospect on the board. The fact that he isn't even the most talented point guard in his class shows the upside at the top of the draft. Ultimately he is this high because there are fewer questions about him as a prospect, and he has taken some undeserved criticism of late.

    Positives: He is all basketball, all the time and is an amazing competitor. His level of competitiveness is similar to Issiah Thomas, Michael Jordan and Kobe Bryant. He is abrasive and will at times bully and humiliate. He is someone that is viewed as a true culture re-setter and I believe that is his best attribute. Lost in all the hoopla of Victor Wembanyama is that Scoot played him to a stand off the first time they played, and before he was injured. He was fearless.

    Physically he is a 9 out 10 athletically. He isn't quite a Morant or Westbrook level athlete, but he is very strong, fit and while he is 2-3 inches shorter than ideal, he has a nearly 7 foot wingspan, strong shoulders and is similar to James Harden in that he can use his strength to get into the lane and finish.

    As a passer he is a 7-8 out of 10 for an NBA point guard. He doesn't see the floor like Chris Paul or Shaun Livingston, but he makes the right passes and gets separation that sets up teammates. I have heard comparisons to Derrick Rose as a passer, and that isn't far off, but I think he sees the floor better than Rose. I would compare his passing ability to Stephon Marbury.

    Defensively, he will likely be as good as he wants to be. His height is not ideal but his athleticism, center of gravity, long arms and strength make him a potential tough match up for point guards or all sizes.

    Negatives: There are no massive red flags but there are some areas of improvement. He isn't a consistent perimeter shooter at this point, but he can hit mid range shots. He also is not idea playing next to a defensive weak shooting guard, because at his height he isn't a great switch candidate. At times he can have his shot blocked inside by great athletic post players. He isn't slow, but he lacks the explosive first step of someone like John Wall.

    Overall he has the physical profile of an all star point guard, with the competitiveness to possibly be great. He reminds me of a more athletic Stephon Marbury.

    3. Amen Thompson -
    How good can Amen Thompson be? That is really the question of the draft. What if he never learns to shoot? What if does learn to shoot? The upside is huge because he has all of the other attributes to be a top level player.

    Positives: The best athlete in the draft. He will be one of the top 5 athletes in the NBA as a rookie, and there is a chance he will be one of the 3 best in the league. He will be the fastest player in the league in transition. He has the ability to explode in tight spaces in the lane, and has showed improved body control once he gets in the lane. There are some players that can explode to the lane given space, and there are some players that can burst in the lane - but there are very few that can do both. He is an absolute handful when he is given a chance to go down hill. Teams will learn that they cannot sag on him, because his second and third step given him a lot of momentum.

    As a passer, he is the best in this draft. He has excellent court vision, and uses his size to see the whole court. He can pass well out of sets or once he draws the defense. His handle has improved a lot over the last year and should continue to improve. In transition he is awesome. He has underrated strength and can easily make cross court passes on a dime.

    Defensively he has the tools needed to be quite good. He has size, a 7 foot wingspan, positive side to side speed and can recover quickly. I get the feeling that defensively he will be as good as he wants to be.

    His body has really changed over the last year. He has added a lot of lean muscle, he is more precise in his movements and has show the ability to have excellent body control. He is a little bit of a late bloomer in that regard, his body will be better than it is now in 3-4 years.

    He also has an excellent motor and known as a willing worker that has few interests outside of basketball.

    Negatives: The elephant in the room is his shot. He is currently not a good shooter outside of 5 feet. About 9 months ago they complete scrapped his shot, and he began working with Mike Miller. The results have been slow, but his release and fluidity is better. I suspect it will pay off down the road. I don't expect he will ever be a very good shooter, but he is capable of shooting at the same percentages that Luka Doncic and Jae Morant do on high volume.

    The other concern is the level of competition that he faced. He has not faced the highest level of competition consistently. However, I am less concerned with this because of the skill set Amen has tends to translate across levels.

    4. Brandon Miller -
    In a lot of ways, Brandon Miller has been disrespected as a prospect for awhile now. He didn't go to a basketball powerhouse. His family didn't move him across the country like some elite players. He has a fairly normal home life and lacks the social polish that other players have. He was Mr. Basketball in Tennessee, he was an All American as well - yet he did not get the attention that others in his class got. Most of the scouting reports on him in high school pointed out what he did not do well instead of the fact he was a top 10 player in his draft. While his athleticism is often criticized, he comes from a family of athletes. His father was a football player at Albama, his aunt and several of his siblings played at high levels in college.

    Positives: He is a nearly 6'10" wing with a 7'1" wingspan that can knock down open 3's and showed the ability to put the ball on the floor and create for himself - what isn't there to like? His shoot is good, and it has the upside of being a near 40% shooter from 3. In the second half of his freshman season he showed the ability to beat doubles, get into the middle of the paint and score. He went from a shooter, to a featured scorer.

    Defensively he should be passable to okay. He isn't ever going to be a great defender because of his foot speed, but he will get some blocks and deflections and has the length to catch some players that get past him on the perimeter.

    Negatives: There are not a lot of obvious negatives, other than there is somewhat or a ceiling for him. He is a solid athlete, but not a great athlete and he isn't as long as someone like Kevin Durant. He is a good but maybe not quite elite outside shooter. He can handle the ball well for a player his size, but he doesn't create a lot for others. So a lot of people dwell on what his limitations are, which is too bad. He has the realistic upside of being a leading scorer on a middling playoff team, and an all star. Based on his improvement his freshman year, there is an outside shot he leads the league in scoring someday.

    He is very much a plug and play guy with a solid floor, but not quite the upside as 4-5 players in the draft. He is still capable of going as high as 2 or as low as 4. Whoever gets him will get a top 3 player on their respective team.
     
  16. Nook

    Nook Member

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    5. Cam Whitmore -
    There is talk of this being a 3-4 player draft, but for me I think it is likely a top 5 draft because Whitmore has the upside of being a top level efficient scorer and positive rebounder.

    Positives: An under-rated athlete that is agile, strong and explosive with good footwork and nimble for a man his size. He has a natural aptitude as a shooter from 3 and inside. He lacks a middle game right now, but it isn't from a lack of agility - he already is developing a step back game. He can blow by guys with his quickness and has 25 point type potential. As a rebounder the vertical and athleticism combined with his strength make him a potential double digit rebounder.

    Negatives: He doesn't really have a natural feel for the game outside of scoring. He holds onto the ball too long, and his game isn't ideal for ball movement. He can sometimes get lost defensively and his overall timing is slow. Overall though, a high scoring and efficient forward has a lot of value in the NBA.

    6. Ausar Thompson -
    He gets lost sometimes with all the hype going to his brother. While I don't think that he is as good as Amen, there are some that like him better and there are valid reasons for it.

    Positives: Who has won the MVP in OTE elite? It isn't Amen - it is Ausar and there is a reason for that. Ausar is the more developed shooter, and he also has a better natural instinct for scoring. Ausar is slightly better at turning the corner and better at finishing under the basket. His athleticism isn't as good as his brother, but he is close. He wiill still be in the top 10% of the league athletically and can defend at a high level.

    While he lacks the court vision of his brother, there are some that think he will learn to shoot and his brother will not. If Ausar learns to shoot, you are looking at a long two guard with the potential to score over 20 points a game.

    Negatives: Basically the same as his brother, but with a better shot but less playmaking.
     
  17. Amadeus Rooster

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    Nook. You are the most tuned in to Stros and Hoops and are a gift to Clutch fans. Keep er going.
     
  18. Deuce

    Deuce Context & Nuance

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    Great stuff Nook!
     
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  19. BigMaloe

    BigMaloe Contributing Member

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    Appreciate you much nook
     
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  20. Ancient Moabite

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    Good looking out with the nuke bomb draft info ...... Nook
     

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