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Case to Trade up for Tari Eason

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by Medicine N Music, May 19, 2022.

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zeeshan2 Member

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16. Tari Eason | 6-7 sophomore | SF | LSU
I have a sneaking suspicion that Eason’s wildness is going to work against him and cause him to slip in the draft; teams may have trouble sticking a fork into a defined role for him. Eason is a big wing with a solid frame who can guard anything from one to four, a disruptive defender whose rates of “stocks” are almost Matisse Thybulle-esque (4.5 steals and 2.5 blocks per 100 in SEC play, nearly matching what Thybulle did in the Pac 12 at the same age).

Wait, there’s more. He’s also an absurdly good rebounder for his size (15.7 rebound rate in the SEC!) and scored easily and efficiently last season. He shot 56.4 percent inside the arc with a massive free-throw rate, made 80.3 percent from the line and even hit 35.9 percent from 3 despite a funky-looking slingshot release that teams aren’t totally sure will translate to the pros. Did I mention he averaged 39.4 points per 100 possessions and had a 34.5 PER in the SEC?

So why is he down here and not in the top five? Because it’s not clear what he did — basically, putting his head down and burrowing to the rim regardless of the situation — has any utility at the next level. Eason isn’t passing — he had two turnovers for every assist, not to mention about 15 true shot attempts — and a lot of his best moments came in transition. If you don’t believe in the shooting, he may not have a role in a half-court offense; given that the previous season at Cincinnati he shot 24.1 percent from 3 and 57.4 percent from the line, this is a realistic fear.
Defensively, he is really good laterally, definitely in the top tier in this draft class. Even small guards had all kinds of trouble turning the corner against him. He has a tendency to rise up out of his stance at times, which can leave him vulnerable to a good hesi move.
However, the same pattern of overaggression bordering on recklessness that marked his offense also was his undoing on defense. Eason committed a whopping 7.7 fouls per 100 possessions in SEC play and had a particularly bad habit of crash-landing into 3-point shooters while challenging shots.

Finally, Eason is a bit older than some of the other players on this list, which is why I put guys like Brown and Griffin ahead of him.
At this point in the draft though, I think his athleticism has to win out. Eason is clearly an NBA athlete and fits a size profile that is constantly sought throughout the league. If he even gets to the 25th percentile as a half-court offensive player, his transition, rebounding and defense will make him a valuable performer.
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#341 zeeshan2, Jun 16, 2022

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Too many teams end of lottery to #20 eyeing Eason as draft steal.

Will need to get to #12 or #13 to ensure we get him.

Will not get by Hornets at #16 for sure.

zeeshan2 said: ↑

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#342 D-rock, Jun 16, 2022

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Hearing more about Eason

effort is a skill . He’s got that and he’s got the body .

would be a great pick at 17 . If we can help him get under control that’s be great .

he’d have a very good role model in Tate .

#343 snowconeman22, Jun 16, 2022

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This is a giant psy-op…that’s the only explanation I have for all of the negative smoke coming from teams on Eason.

You draft for potential.

He has 100% legit size, athleticism and defensive chops. The offensive game has all kinds of promise and he’s already shown significant improvement.

I think we need to get to #8…not joking. What are we even doing here?

#344 finsraider, Jun 18, 2022

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finsraider said: ↑

This is a giant psy-op…that’s the only explanation I have for all of the negative smoke coming from teams on Eason.

You draft for potential.

He has 100% legit size, athleticism and defensive chops. The offensive game has all kinds of promise and he’s already shown significant improvement.

I think we need to get to #8…not joking. What are we even doing here?
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If we were going to trade that high there's a few other guys I'd target over Eason.

#345 xtruroyaltyx, Jun 18, 2022

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xtruroyaltyx said: ↑

If we were going to trade that high there's a few other guys I'd target over Eason.
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Assume these guys are taken ahead of him:

Jabari
Chet
Banchero
Ivey
Sharpe
Murray
Daniels

who would you take and why?

#346 finsraider, Jun 18, 2022

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D-rock said: ↑

Too many teams end of lottery to #20 eyeing Eason as draft steal.

Will need to get to #12 or #13 to ensure we get him.

Will not get by Hornets at #16 for sure.
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Agree. I see the Hornets adding either Duren or Williams at #13 and following with Eason.

#347 Francis3422, Jun 18, 2022

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finsraider said: ↑

Assume these guys are taken ahead of him:

Jabari
Chet
Banchero
Ivey
Sharpe
Murray
Daniels

who would you take and why?
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Mathurin - Would be a no brainer for me over Eason.
Griffin - Also would be a no brainer for me, shooting, defense also with the ability to create when absolutely needed.

Sochan - I think he's a more solid defender...Not as eye popping, but I like his defensive discipline. Also a bit younger. And I think his offensive game fits more with what we have.

Dieng - Really just all based on potential and age. I love his skillset and he obviously has many glaring weaknesses, but his ability to be playmaker at that size intrigues me.

And then also Mark Williams and Duren although I think guys like this can be gotten through trade or free agency and we may already have access to a guy like this in Bruno Fernandez if they retain him. So I could go Eason over them. But I may take Duren over Eason just because of the potential.

I'm not against Eason being on the team. I think he'd bring some much needed things we don't have. But I also like other guys a little bit more for one reason or another.

#348 xtruroyaltyx, Jun 18, 2022

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Bo6 said: ↑

eason's the type of player where it REALLY matters where he gets drafted. he's someone that needs a long term home with an already set structure to develop and have the bad habits tought out of him. places like San Antonio...Miami... Golden State come to mind.

If he lands in a spot like Sacramento, Atlanta, New York then I could see him just becoming a journeyman for 5-7 years instead of a high level role player for 12 years which he well could be.
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Where do you feel Rockets in the development spectrum. If we're in the middle, are we more MIA or SAC?

#349 TimDuncanDonaut, Jun 18, 2022

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Sochan only player on your list I'd consider over Eason.

Sochan is taller but not as long and not as good vertical pop as Eason. Eason also more disruptive defender (defense>offense) and prolific scorer (all 3 levels).

Only area Sochan is superior to Eason is playmaking and youth.

But if Banchero pick at #3 then playmaking is not as critical for 2 way switch wing.

KPJ, Green, Banchero, Sengun, Tate, Nix, Queen - all comparable or better playmakers.

xtruroyaltyx said: ↑

Mathurin - Would be a no brainer for me over Eason.
Griffin - Also would be a no brainer for me, shooting, defense also with the ability to create when absolutely needed.

Sochan - I think he's a more solid defender...Not as eye popping, but I like his defensive discipline. Also a bit younger. And I think his offensive game fits more with what we have.

Dieng - Really just all based on potential and age. I love his skillset and he obviously has many glaring weaknesses, but his ability to be playmaker at that size intrigues me.

And then also Mark Williams and Duren although I think guys like this can be gotten through trade or free agency and we may already have access to a guy like this in Bruno Fernandez if they retain him. So I could go Eason over them. But I may take Duren over Eason just because of the potential.

I'm not against Eason being on the team. I think he'd bring some much needed things we don't have. But I also like other guys a little bit more for one reason or another.
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#350 D-rock, Jun 19, 2022
Last edited: Jun 19, 2022

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There’s a better than 50% chance Eason is available when the rockets pick at #17 according to Vegas.

#351 Aruba77, Jun 19, 2022

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Also in the camp that doesn’t understand why he’s be there at 17.

if either he or Duren (another one maybe slipping that I don’t get…) are available at 17 that’d be fortunate.

#352 JayZ750, Jun 19, 2022

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#353 zeeshan2, Jun 20, 2022

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Cmon! Even he wants this as bad as we want this!

#354 Caesar, Jun 20, 2022

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#355 D-rock, Jun 20, 2022

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#356 D-rock, Jun 20, 2022

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#357 D-rock, Jun 20, 2022

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Model view: Eason split the models a bit, finishing as a bench contributor to solid starter in some of the broader models, but looking like a plus starter / potential all star in the ones focused on individual positions. None of the models disliked him per se, but the models that were lower on him penalized him a bit for his slightly older age, low A/T, and LSU’s middling SOS. In the positional models - they loved Eason’s as a PF with strong impact metrics, high steals, and good outside shooting.

Film View: Eason is an interesting prospect because his tape makes you fall in love one moment and bury your head in your hands the next. Offensively, Eason is a strong, athletic scorer who plays a physical and punishing style. With any space he can finish with power or use his long arms and coordination to lay the ball in. He’s also a quick jumper who is able to make fast post moves and then jump quickly to score before the defender can recover. He’s equally quick capitalizing off ball and shows promise as a cutter or receiving the ball and getting from the three point line to the basket in one dribble. And he’s a decent ball handler who can execute some crossovers and spins in the halfcourt and iis lethal in transition - both generating turnovers he turns into offense and finishing as he runs the court well. But sadly, all that glitters isn’t gold. Eason’s handles and power don’t always work and he gets lost and really starts to force bad plays if he doesn’t have a clear opportunity. This includes bad shots or turning the ball over. And he has a lot of bad turnovers - really poor passes (both bad decisions and execution), travels, offensive fouls, and loose dribbles that get picked. He really struggles when he gets sped up. And while he shot a good percentage this year, there are some concerns about his shot. He doesn’t pull up quickly off the dribble or have much of a mid-range game. And while he hit 36% of his threes, he has a bit of a slow release on his shot and given his relatively low volume of threes this season, there’s reason to believe he may not have improved as much as his three point percentage suggests from the 24% he shot in 2021.

On defense, it’s largely the same story. Eason has quick hands and solid anticipation at times that paired with his ability to cover ground and jump quickly, allows him to get a plethora of blocks and steals. He has great hand-eye coordination and can be a magnet for any ball that is in his area. Eason has the strength and physicality to punish drivers and absorb contact and the long strides and wingspan to help contest jumpers. At his best, he is a hurricane, who can single-handedly devastate the opponent's offense. However, again, there are legitimate concerns about his basketball awareness and processing. Eason can get lost on defense. And I don’t just mean normal over-helping a bit like some college players. I am talking about fully losing his man or getting lost in rotations and giving up wide open shots. He also gives back a lot of the fouls he creates on offense, by picking up needless fouls on defense.

Eason is absolutely a disruptive force on both sides of the ball, but the problem is any given game or play, he could disrupt the opponent or his own team.

Best stats: 14.7 BPM and 6.0 stocks - he can be highly impactful for his team

Worst stats: 0.5 A/T - this is becoming a bad number for any player, but it sometimes tolerated among rim running centers, but for a 21 year old potential ball handler (even a secondary or tertiary ball handler), it raises some red flags about basketball decision making

What you have to believe for him to hit his ceiling: Really two things. First you have to believe he can either be elite in a narrower role or really improve his feel for the game. And second, you have to believe that at least his shot translates - the more levels he can shoot at consistently, the more it will open up driving lanes he can excel in.

Verdict: I think I pretty effectively split the difference between some other draft analysts who have Eason in the top 10 and the current draft / rumor consensus that he may be slipping into the 20s. I think Eason is a talented player who can really have a heavy impact on games, but who is throwing up way more red flags than I like from my early picks. Even if Eason eventually figures out how to accept his role and increases his awareness, he may be on his second contract with his 3rd or 4th team. I think there’s enough other potential high-impact prospects I’d personally prefer to roll the dice on. With that said, there’s a reason the positional models rate Eason so highly, he’s almost built in a lab to be the perfect modern NBA PF. Eason presents a risk, but he also presents a potentially big reward. And I think around the 10-15 range (give or take a couple of picks), the upside justifies the gamble. I just can’t fathom letting Eason slip into the 20s, while being so risk-averse I pick a player with an 80%+ probability of being a low starter / high bench rotation player. Also worth noting, that Eason is one of the first players where getting drafted by the right team might be the most important outcome for him. Obviously, that is helpful for any player, but a strong, veteran team with a good development plan and role models could be more critical for Eason than players such as Banchero, Daniels, or Murray.

NBA comp high: Derrick Coleman - Coleman is a former #1 pick, who played with power inside, had competent handles, and could shoot outside (well for the 90s). Coleman was a disruptive two-way player early in is career, but also one who had to improve his in-game decision making and had a number of seasons with more turnovers than assists.

NBA comp medium: James Johnson - I am a bit more partial to Johnson, especially given he had a tumultuous career path, where the fans of all of Johnson’s early teams wanted him to get more court time as he could be disruptive on both sides of the ball, just like Eason could (even was a powerful SF/PF with a similar style / skill set). But he also played on 5 teams in his first 6 seasons for a reason, before finding his footing around ages 28-29. Fantastic for Johnson, but less so for Chicago who drafted him 16th overall.

NBA comp low: Josh Jackson so far - Look, Jackson also had some character red flags that Eason does not (at least from what is publicly available). But Jackson was a similarly talented SF/PF with a vaguely similar statistical profile to Eason, but some of the same question marks. So far, Jackson’s awareness and lack of further development have held back his career. And like with James Johnson, Jackson is already on his 4th team and even if he becomes an all star, he would not be considered a successful draft pick by the Suns.
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https://docs.google.com/document/d/1zsqJ4-h_pSzkrycxNwY_BS2lb7RT3VmKYYJ9pbWtfDg/edit#

#358 zeeshan2, Jun 20, 2022

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Tari Eason should be there at 17th but I would trade Martin, Tate and 26th pick to Knicks?

#359 CHAMPBOY, Jun 20, 2022

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CHAMPBOY said: ↑

Tari Eason should be there at 17th but I would trade Martin, Tate and 26th pick to Knicks?
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They are actively trying to use their 11th to get a point guard, preferably Ivey. Otherwise, would you entertain giving them a KPJ?

#360 TimDuncanDonaut, Jun 20, 2022

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