I still think Banchero is available to us at 3. All of this is just pre-draft noise because people need to generate clicks and the draft cycle begins to choke on its own fumes. Honestly, I think up to pick 5 or 6 is pretty set 1-Smith 2-Holmgren 3-Banchero 4-Murray 5-Ivey Maybe this is where it gets interesting but I have to guess Indiana will take the shot on Sharpe. #7 is where it will get interesting.
At least people won't blame Stone for not choosing their choice this time. Maybe they'll blame Stone for not trading up.
Paolo is holding back how much he really wants to play with KPJ and Jalen because he always believed in KPJ and Jalen.
I'm confident he's going top 2 and going to the Thunder. Now the Thunder already have SGA & Giddey so the fit might not be greatest but I think Sam Presti will see Paolo as better talent than Chet. No one expected Thunder to select Giddey last year. I think similar thing is going to happen with Paolo and won't be surprised on draft week if rumors heat up that Paolo is going to Thunder.
Banchero is going #2 to OKC. It's pretty much guaranteed. Rockets will be left with potentially Marfans syndrome Chet at #3. Jabari (the worst of the 3) of course is going #1 because Orlando is dumb.
If you believe this, go bet on it, because Vegas “pretty much guarantees” that Banchero will be 3. But maybe this is the time the unwarranted confidence of an internet rando is more accurate than the cumulative insight of people with money on the line. https://www.vegasinsider.com/nba/odds/draft/
Well, if they got it too wrong too often, they'd be out of business.....instead business stays booming.
A hell of a lot better than the message board’s. There are a few billion dollars worth of casinos devoted to the idea that they tend to win their bets. But why argue - go put a bet down. Vegas is willing to put real money on the line and seems pretty damn sure. Go do the same.
Clutchfaners are too dense to understand how Vegas lines work. Vegas lines are not reflection of actuality but are designed to sucker dumb money like above into bad bets. The game is expectation maximization on both sides.
That's because not all odd isn't 1:1. Jabari odd is -140. You need to bet $140 on Jabari to win $100. They made money on those gamble on big payout. I'm sure there are people betting Chet and Paolo not going 2nd and 3rd.
By all means kiddo, since you know better than everyone else, and Banchero being drafted #2 is "guaranteed" in your opinion, why aren't you out there dropping $100K on that happening? WHY ARE YOU DENYING YOURSELF A QUICK $800K PROFIT?!?!?!
Right, that's why I said "too wrong too often", for example, if Banchero actually went 2nd, those who were insane enough to bet on that would make 8x whatever they put down. Being wrong about the order or Jabari and Chet wouldn't be THAT costly to them, being wrong about Banchero going 3nd would be potentially devastating. In a situation like a game where fluke nonsense can happen, they still rarely make big mistakes, in situations where you are dealing with knowable facts like draft order, those really big mistakes almost never happen. There's too much money to be made or lost by not getting a person inside the organization to leak who they are planning on drafting. Let's say I find out that the draft order is going to be Jabari, Banchero, then Chet Well Banchero is 8 to 1 to go 2nd and Chet is 12 to 1 to go 3rd....so you put 50K on both and walk away with a million dollars. That's going to eat into the casino's profit pretty quickly if a large number of super smart people made those kinds of bets....
Vegas odds aren't really "predictions" but more so based on perception. They really don't care about being right as much as they want even distribution of people betting both sides so that they make money on the vig.
That's a factor, sure, but if they know something the public doesn't, they still have to hedge against a few high rollers taking them to town. So, for example, they know Chet is really going 3rd and Bancharo is really going 2nd, they don't have those odds as +1200 and +800 despite what the public thinks because they stand to lose too much too quickly if there are others who know better who are willing to throw down large bets. They definitely set things up so that they profit no matter what....and part of that is by effectively eliminating the super long odds BS from happening. In sporting events, a lot of that is out of their control (not that they haven't managed to control that before as well), when it comes to merely finding out knowable information, that's a different story. There are people who know for a fact exactly which players are going to go 1, 2, and 3. Since those people exist, that means there are likely people in Vegas who have already purchased that information. Think of it this way, Woj knows a TON.....but he gets paid peanuts compared to what Vegas would be willing to pay for that kind of info.
