I know you're not supposed to fully time the market and if you're holding or continuing to invest it probably won't matter since you'll get a good return y/y, I just have a feeling this is going to be different/take longer for the nice return. I think my main concern is rising energy costs and possible Taiwan/China conflict really making things rough. I'm definitely not as experienced as you and probably thinking worst case scenarios - but there's more factors I'm not liking this time vs the other times.
Yeah, for me, it's not about even timing the market. It's more about not being so scared as to not buy anything as it goes down or may be coming up. I hesitated doing much buying during the dotcom bubble crash, but did luckily get a lot of my money out as it crashed. There are going to be a lot of people that are paralyzed by their losses during this downturn and won't buy, but I get that. I was one of those people 20 years ago, too. It's like the question now is : should you be selling and dumping everything or buying stuff? History shows you should be buying, but it depends on your investment horizon. I'm buying SPY every now and then on the way down. I don't care - it's "side money" and I can wait another 5-10 years for a recovery, so no biggie. I don't care about 100% returns in 6 months. lol. I bought into NVDA and AMD a bit too early, but I've sold others along the way, and I have enough ammo to buy more later, so I'm not worried about those, either.
I think that's really good advice/plan. Like regardless it's going to return y/y and avg nice returns, I mean it's certainly better than a savings account as an investment, haha. I think that's the biggest scam. I don't mean to say people shouldn't have emergency funds/savings etc (they should!) but I'm just saying if that's their only place on investments.... I guess it's similar to my thoughts on people that won't at least put the % their company matches into their 401k (at the minimum).
I'm not trying to persuade anyone to buy but I'm just sharing what I'm seeing. Things could definitely get a lot worse, but look at all the headlines happening right now and it's kind of crazy the market isn't down more. Maybe this won't be a V bottom reversal and it might be closer to a 2011 style where we violently bounce around the bottom end of the range and even possibly break lower before heading higher. I know we were at historically extended levels before this, but this doesn't feel like 2008-09 to me since there seems to be much less systemic risk.
I like when seasonality and cycles line up. Kind of seems like we are having a lot of things line up. Maybe wait a week or two and then buy
I was thinking about sentiment and how sometimes that can be disconnected from the market? For example, everyone feels the pain of inflation so that will drive sentiment really down (vs say unemployment which does too, but if you have your job, you're like eh) but how does that translate into market performance? So I looked at S&P returns for the early 80's since the graph you posted also had similar sentiment and was in an inflationary environment (though worse by a mile). 1985 26.33% 1984 1.40% 1983 17.27% 1982 14.76% 1981 -9.73% 1980 25.77% So yeah, I'm probably going to go long at the end of June and keep building net long all summer long - especially after Q2 earnings come out since I think we'll see confirmation of folks fears probably lead to decent selling, etc. These are long term investments so I'm not too concerned but its human nature to try to get a "deal".
That's roughly my plan too. I have a lot of cash sitting in my bank account after I got lucky and sold a property just before everything went nuts in the mortgage market. TLT/JNK/MUB are starting to show some potential of building a bottom here. Preferred markets still look rough, but haven't made a new low.
Also early on the housing thing. GME. MRO. Probably everything else. If the system wasn't rigged so much that wouldn't be the case.
I had texted my buddy sunday to get in on XOM June 2023 puts....would have made some solid cash on it. Ugh.
heh. i had my finger on the buy button for VLO puts when it was 140's. would have 3x it. did not see it dropping 30+ dollars in a few days but a drop to mid 120's
I kind of blame individuals too. The positive effect of the 2020 bailout was that consumer debt fell drastically as people paid down loans using stimulus and unemployment funding. But then all of that completely reversed and now consumers are now in more debt than they were before. So consumers ended up juicing corporate earnings by overspending. Ultimately, PPP and the corporate stimulus is the biggest culprit but we also overdid the direct payments as well. In my opinion, they really should've focused on unemployment insurance and temporarily expanding medicaid eligibility to guarantee access to healthcare during the pandemic (and not so secretly trialing a universal health care system). And PPP could've been limited to businesses that actually had to close or were heavily restricted due to lockdown. The first PPP loan basically had no conditions and the second one just required you to show a decrease in revenue (so poorly run businesses got to qualify for both). The fact that companies could go remote and then take PPP loans was absolutely absurd.
PPP went to idiots like Kanye....the stimulus went to WAYYY too many people making good money with no dependents. And then you had zero commission trades for bored people at the house in a hyperbull market...ya we are paying for it now.
We should have pulled the trigger when we saw this.. https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/06/cramer-buy-the-dip-in-oil-stocks-stay-away-from-everything-else.html Jim Cramer says to buy the dip in oil stocks, stay away from everything else PUBLISHED MON, JUN 6 2022 +5% or so the first 2 days since he said that but overall -20% since that article. pump to retail so his buddies can get out..
The average consumer is pretty much a moron, so what do you expect? lol. Giving people free money is like handing them guns to shoot themselves. I mean look at half this thread. lol.
