I never said they shouldn't upgrade Meyers, if you have a proven attainable upgrade feel free to do so. I doubt there's many posters who would disagree. I disagreed with your assessment that Meyers was a meaningless nobody
you can compare them all you want but one has nothing to do with the other. and you're right, pena isn't proven. but he's been on the field performing this season. as i said, if he wasn't, he'd be the 1st spot upgraded at the deadline. meyers is both unproven, and somehow going to benefit from missing the first 3-4 months of the season and be rewarded with an every day CF job on a team trying to win a world series? if pena tore his labrum in the offseason and was out till august, would you want to commit to him as our SS through this season's postseason run? am i losing my mind?
didn't say meaningless. realistic chance he's a nobody. and i hope he's good. completely insane, in my opinion, to gamble on him being good enough to improve our chances of winning the world series this year.
I’m somewhere in the middle on Meyers, I certainly wouldn’t go get a middle of the pack CF at the cost of a prospect, but although it’s unlikely, I would be checking in on B Reynolds and if a bigger deal for a guy like that could be made, would he all over it
I would say that everything you say is reasonable. However I think that Pena and Meyers are extremely comparable. I use (fangraphs because it's handy) Jermyn Pena was the Astros 34th ranked prospect in 2019. Both were low-non prospects known for defense who had swing/hitting philosophy changes and worked very hard to lose the "defense only" label. They performed and impressed the organization enough to become THE choice at their position. Thats why you consider Pena when thinking about Meyers. But to answer your question. Pena and Meyers are established about equally as far as MLB experience. If Pena's injury was severe enough to keep him out 3+ months and he was scheduled to return the beginning of July ( Meyers 20 day rehab expires before the end of June) then yes you wait for him based on all other options. Especially with a 9+ game lead in the division.
So Bregman for 28 per year is good value? Are you planning to get a new 3B after Bregman? What does that cost in prospects and money? The similarity score makes Rendon closest to Bregman on baseball reference. I understand the money aspect and already addressed it. I didn't even say i would do it, you're assuming it. I said it's something to look at and that we would need more than straight up swap for the reasons, hence them throwing in money and a prospect. All the things you cite can be offset by money or prospect compensation. The point was a change of scenery option for both teams. Angels need to pair down salary for ohtani extension and switching to shorter bregman deal does some of that. If Bregman turns things around there's no reason to do it... which is why i phrased it as end of the year... I just think your trying to pick a fight or something... Rendon has played 155 games in 3 years. Bregman is at 194. It's a fair point Bregman has been hurt too. Is he this year? You can make the same case for Rendon... then it comes down to medicals... I think there are several unknown variables that determine whether such a move makes sense... im just putting it out there to think about...
Just a thought... To Arizona: Christopher Javier To Houston: CF Corbin Carroll Carroll is tearing up AA as a 21, almost 22 year old. Could be a long term fit. He's ranked #13 on top 100 prospects. Javier gives them another young arm with Gallen and Kelly to build around when Bumgarner is gone... Corbin may be untouchable, but Javier had proven himself far more.
I like Reynolds. I would be fine with him but the Pirates will want a Pirates ransom for him ( pun intended). However I think and hope Meyers could equal his production. The thing is Reynolds is much more certain. If the Pirates would take 4 prospects that do not include: Brown, Lee, Leon, Whitley, or Barber then I say do it. However I think each of those 5 guys could be big contributors over the next 3-8 years. Certainly like all prospects they could be busts but I would not include them in a deal for a guy who could possibly not even be an improvement over Meyers. And if course it's all moot because no way Purates accept a bunch of non top 100 ( non top 200?) Prospects.
This is a really silly argument on Meyers: 1) The Astros FO was incredibly high on him- trading away a 3 WAR player that was established (for bullpen pieces) to open up a spot for him 2) He was destroying AAA last year 3) He handled himself very well last year 4) he's going to be back and ready to go soon and we will be able to see what he is well in front of the trade deadline 5) CF around baseball is ass, my dude, and there is very little chance of upgrading from what Meyers is likely to do- let alone the floor that Siri and Chaz provide- so why are we talking about it? 6) Meanwhile- 1b is just absolutely brutalizing us this year and it's manned by someone we all love, but that is 147 years old and was always going to be at risk of falling off a cliff 7) All the metrics on Yuli's quality of contact show that he's justifiably terrible, and this isn't bad luck 8) First basemen who can hit are easy to find; and 9) We can add one of those at very little cost if they are in a walk year, and it's likely that any chance to upgrade CF is either impossible or insanely expensive; 10) Give us your solution in CF. Seriously. And what it would cost. And argue it's a better idea to upgrade there before seeing what Meyers looks like coming back from injury than just doing 1b. Keep in mind- in my batting order I was talking about hitting Meyers 7th or 8th depending on if we were facing a lefty or a righty. So, it's not like I said- hey- we need Meyers to come in and be amazing in the 3 spot. No, it was literally- do your job hitting 8th and put up an OPS of 750- which you've already shown you can do- while playing really good defense and that does away with another spot that has been a problem. Find an 850 OPS 1B, platoon Bradley and Chaz and that becomes an 800 ops spot and you are back to one poor hitter in the lineup- Catcher- batting 9th with legit PH weapons to mitigate that problem close and late in a playoff game.
Not a single positive? 1) He has more track record of consistent success 2) I'm not having this conversation the way you are framing it which ignores health and compensation from Anaheim to take him. They have both been trash... classic change of scenery. For the reasons you noted, i never suggested a straight swap... You are arguing against something no one said... Context matters... What if we get them to eat 10 million the first 2 seasons and 20 million the following 2? They let Bregman walk and save 18 million in payroll for Ohtani. We then are paying Rendon 18 million in those final 2 years, which the drop in salary cost should offset some drop in production. It's fine to not like an idea, but you’re hating an idea no one had... makes no sense..
I... was about to say something with regard to post 667, but it wasn't nice so I'll keep it to myself except for lol @ "Christopher Javier"
so are you saying they should evaluate him based on his performance in between when he comes up and the deadline?
Sorry, auto fill on my phone... Glad i could provide a chuckle... would be a better deal for us if it's Christopher...
Bregman has come up way short of our expectations for him this year, there is no doubt about that... But if he was someone new to the team and we were just looking at production and not production vs what we expected, it's not nearly as bad There are 11 everyday 3B with a higher OPS than him so far this year. That puts him at about the top 1/3 of MLB 3B. Of those above him 3 are statistically insignificant (Bregman .694, Donaldson .696, Rendon .708 and injured, Chapman ..708) I know that is just one stat, but OPS is a pretty good stat when you are talking about what a player has done (and not looking at predictive stats) Bottom line, our lineup has bigger fish to fry than trying to replace Bregman
Let's only look at #1 in this response and I will look into the cost as I get time 1) he has more track record of consistent success. OPS+ 2016 Rendon 108 Alex 116 2017 Rendon 139 Alex 125 2018 Rendon 137 Alex 152 2019 Rendon 157 Alex 162 2020 Rendon 150 Alex 117 ( COVID season) 2021 Rendon 95 Alex 114 ( Rendon injured 110g Alex injured 71) 2022 Rendon 104 Alex 101 Pick your metric but I do not see where you can say Rendon has " more track record of consistent success"
Now let's look at cost vs production. I must admit it wasn't as bad as I initially thought and reacted to. I apologize for sharp response. You are stating trade Bregman to Angels for Rendon, a prospect and $10 mil per season 2023-2026. I used info from : the dynastyguru.com to determine reduced production as a player ages. I have no idea what their sources or research is but it looks reasonable to me and had break down year by year. Here are the drops per age ( drops are from previous year not starting level) 29: 0 30: -1% 31: -.5% 32:-1.5% 33: -0.85% 34: -1.15% 35: - 1.65% 36: - 2.4% Alex's 2 years remaining are ages 29 and 30. Rendon's 4 years remaining are 33-36. I used OPS rather than OPS+ since that can vary year to year depending on how hitting across baseball performs. Since 2020 Alex's OPS is .747 Rendon's is .769. 2023: Angels $30 mil. Alex .747 Astros pay $25 mil. Rendon .762 2024: Angels $30 mil Alex .740 Astros $25 mil. Rendon .753 2025: Angels $10 mil. --- Astros $25 mil Rendon .741 2026: Angels $10 mil -- Astros $25 mil Rendon .723 On the surface it's not bad depending on the prospect return. The reason I wouldn't do it is all about money and age. These forecasts assume both players stay healthy. Alex is currently healthy and Rendon isn't. Being 4 years older he is more likely to get/stay hurt but that is why the prospect was thrown in. The issue is 2025 and 2026 paying $25 mil each year for an average to slightly above average player when current young stars will need to get paid. How will that $25 million hurt the payroll flexibility when these guys are arb. Eligible or FA? Framber- Arb4 in 2025, FA in 2026 Tucker- Arb3 in 2025, FA in 2026 Javier- Arb3 in 2025, FA in 2026 Urquidy- Arb3 in 2025, FA in 2026 L.Garcia - Arb2 in 2025, Arb3 in 2026 Pena - Arb1 in 2025, Arb2 in 2026. For essentially a 50/50 change of scenery trade you reduce payroll flexibility for 2 crucial seasons.
Was referring to ops, ba, etc. Ops+ is nice in theory but a little fungible. Even so you prove my point. Bregman had a spike in 2018-2019 whereas Rendon was consistent 2017-2020. The injury comment is silly. I already said you aren't trading for Rendon if the medicals aren't ok. There's reason to believe the 2 largely missed seasons from injury are a statistical flukes if he improves as the year goes on as he fights off rust. Bregman is healthier so I'm not sure you can grade his performance on a curve like Rendon. Again, I'm saying if Rendon checks out medically, if the Angels are chipping in a bunch of cash offset, and if we receive a prospect of significant persuasion. I'm also saying if healthy Bregman continues to struggle the rest of the year. There are a lot of ifs you are completely ignoring... I think you're obsessing over a fleeting thought of solving a potential 3B issue in a few months in which the scenario may not even apply. I can play stupid too... the Angels are going to pay 75% of his salary for us and take Bregman's deal. So let's assume we pay Rendon 10 million for what were basically going to pay Bregman 28 million to do...
All valid points, it is a short term move for a 2023-2024 window with possibility Rendon ends up at 1b or dh at some point. I think locking up and buying out arbitration years can help mitigate unforeseen payroll issues. 2026 is an issue with regard to payroll but much is up in the air by then. Bregman, Altuve, Verlander are all gone possibly. We have 32 million total to 2 players for 2026 (Yordan/McCullers). Everyone else is an unknown... that's about 200 million+ wiggle room under the tax...
Playing stupid was never my intention. And I agree about OPS+ that's why I moved on from it in my last post. I will say that Rendon has a longer history of above average production. Mostly because he is 4 years older. However Bregmans spike in production came as he matured. 2019 was his 3rd full and age 24 season. Its hard to expect peak production before age 24. Rendon had a similar spike his 3rd full season ( I am figuring over 100 games as "full season" Rendon had 2 80-98 g seasons also) although it was age 27. Rendon has been very good when healthy. However due to his age and how frequently he has been hurt lately I think it's a bad risk. Based on the fact that you said "if healthy" then future payroll commitments and flexibility ( derailed in prior post) would be the reason I would say no. I still think Alex is the better player between now and the end of the 2024 season. Let's see how it plays out.
