But he still wouldn't be able to create and run an offense like Steph Curry so it's just the argument of do you value Klay Thompson more or Steph Curry more. Building a team from scratch, I think most folks would lean more towards what Steph can do instead of Klay. In the context of what the Rockets should do... it's clearly taking who is ever left out of Paolo, Chet, and Jabari.
Leadership eh? Would you like to compare Banchero's leadership to Ivey's? Why is it that practically all the real professional hoopster scouts have both Bari and Chet ahead of Paolo and many have Ivey even ahead of him? Think about it. Count up how many pro scouts and analysts have Paolo in the top 2. You will need less than one hand.
True, but Steph scores a ton, is incredibly efficient, and is a creator. This draft doesn't have that. Paolo only does one of those. I know. Murray scores a ton and is incredibly efficient. If Jabari is Klay, Murray is the closest to Steph in that at least he does two of the 3.
It's certainly not a perfect comparison. It was of an illustration of a player who can create for himself and others verses someone who is 3&D. I personally believe shooting is easier to learn than playmaking. Jabari is an amazing shooter and has great defensive potential.... but out of the top 5 draft picks of the last 10 years he has the worst 2pt%. Jabari just doesn't dribble and score inside the 3 point line which seems more like a high floor type of prospect.
This is my hope too. But if not, then we need to take Ivey. And either keep him or hold teams ransom for their 2023 likely lottery pick and other assets to trade for him.
Maybe he's not the unanimous number 1 because people are overthinking it. Paolo showed up in the tournament when he got more freedom. 18.8/7.6/3.4 on 50/52.6/72.7 shooting splits is a hell of a tournament.
Interested to see you expand on this. I believe Duke and Coach K actually used Paolo perfectly and maximized him offensively AND defensively. Duke surrounded Paolo with TWO snipers in Moore and Griffin who shot +40% from 3P. - Rockets do not have even ONE sniper with efficiency like this. Duke also used Paolo as primary scoring option which allowed Paolo to dominate the ball and maximize his offensive opportunities and showcase his strengths. - Green will have that role with Rockets. And Duke allowed Paolo to be playmaker but he also spread that burden with Keels and Moore. Moore was actually the more efficient passer while Keels protected the ball the best (lowest TOV and foul rate). - With Rockets, Paolo would share playmaking duties with KPJ, Green, Sengun who are more TO and/or foul prone. Defensively, Paolo was backstopped by one of the best rim protectors in country, ACC DPOY, Mark Williams. Additionally Paolo had 2 strong perimeter defenders (Keels, Moore) so Paolo did not have to defend best opposing post player or opposing best perimeter player. - Rockets have neither a premier rim protector nor do they have even average perimeter defenders. Mark Williams was also a rim runner extraordinaire who was the most efficient finisher at the rim in college, ranked just ahead of Chet Holmgren. - Rockets do have an elite rim finishing big in Wood but if CF had their way, Wood be gone. - Wood was actually #2 rim finisher in NBA in 2021 and 2nd only to Giannis. *Wood career average is just under 80% finishing at rim so that season not an outlier. https://www.baselinespinaroonie.com/post/best-rim-finishers-in-the-2021
People being those paid to do this job draft in and draft out? So this draft is the only draft that people are overthinking on a player? These people are experts. Not having consensus #1 means there is legit argument by the experts for multiple prospects.
We are explicitly talking about offense. No one is arguing about who is better at defense. Even if we were, I’d still take Steph every day of the week and wouldn’t think twice. You’d have to do a lot of rationalizing to take a role player over Steph Curry. On offense what good is it if you are 6’10 but finish around the basket worse than the majority of shooting guards? True shooting is only an offensive stat and Seth is better than Steph by a larger margin than Jabari and Paolo. We are literally talking about one tenth of a percentage point here. Seth is catch and shoot role player. Could generating offense as opposed to having offense set up for you affect a player’s efficiency? Which player do you think is more likely to be a star? TS% is just explaining why Jabari scored the same amount of points as Paolo on less volume. We can clearly see that however by just looking at their shot percentages and total points averaged. The only reason Jabari averaged the same amount of points is inherently because 3 is worth more than 2. Not only did Jabari take overall less volume of shots, he made less shots relative to the volume. Paolo made more shots relative to an increased volume. This is where TS% comes in but it is rather simplistic to think those shots are always the best shots regardless of circumstance. It also highlights the fact that Paolo had to make a ton more shots on a ton more volume to have basically the same eFG%. It is very novel to use eFG% that highlights the weakness of one player and the only offensive strength of another and after all of that, they come out one tenth of a percentage point from each other. The efficiency on volume to make up for less 3 point shooting either has to be significant or that 3 point shooter is significantly raw enough to tank his elite 3 point shooting. This doesn’t bode well for Jabari at all when you consider how those shots are generated. You see, regardless of what shot is deemed efficient, Jabari scored the same amount of points as Paolo except he did it hitting a lower percentage of shots relative to a lower volume of shots. I don’t know why you’d prefer that in a prospect. In a vacuum, hitting more shots relative to more volume would naturally constitute better efficiency . If the argument is that 3 point shots are more difficult, then that should be reflected in defining what an efficient shot actually is wouldn’t you think? But then why not talk about the difficulty of generating your own offense? Or do we actually believe that 3 point shots are the most difficult thing to develop? The difference in field goal percentage relative to scoring the same amount of points is drastically different and sometimes it’s as simple as that. All of the factors that go into scoring inside there arc in a players 2% is on a completely different planet between the two. There is also a much larger sample size here from both players to work with. If you are evaluating a prospect it isn’t clear to me why these things would be glossed over. Don’t we want the most skilled players who can score or playmake in a variety of ways? This shouldn’t be about who takes the most efficient shots tomorrow. This is about projecting a players skill set into the future. I’ll take my chances with what I’ve seen over the course of history with regards to 3pt shooting than expect Jabari to even be average at a multitude of things. And with all this talk about the most efficient shots, the top 10 players in TS% are basically all centers. Wake me up when Jabari can score efficiently at the rim or is even a legitimate lob threat. A lot of circumstances in basketball call for a host of different abilities. 3 point shooting isn’t always the smartest or the most efficient shot in every scenario. If I’m projecting talent, I’m sticking with the guy who made a higher percentage of shots on significantly more volume. That tells me he can do more from all over the floor and isn’t liable to shooting 18% at any point in his career.
There is no Steph Curry in this draft. No matter how you stretch this theory or how many alternate realities you visit.
Yawn. I was just expanding on your theory. Of course there is no Steph Curry in this draft. Still getting butt hurt whenever anyone disagrees with you I see..... Toughen up cupcake.
No I don't think this is the only draft. I think a lot of people over thought the Luka draft too. There is a legit argument. I'm not sure Paolo should be the consensus number 1 but I think there is a lot of overthinking when it comes to him and a lot of hoping for upside with Chet and Jabari. I'm questioning the thinking not saying that the thinking is definitely wrong.
But WHY aren't you discussing defense? The fact that you have to do all these mental gymnastics to devalue or color the importance of 3P shot in favor of the 2P when the simple 3 > 2 has been proved and reproved over and over is bewildering. Be transparent, debate what both do well vs what they both do not do well. Leaving out weaknesses of one to belittle the other is disingenuous. And the argument is Paolo vs Jabari. Not Steph vs Jabari. Not Seth vs Paolo.
We aren't going to solve all the Rocket's issues in one or two drafts/off seasons. There's a very good chance this team will look differently in a few years so it's pretty fruitless to project the future Rocket's team with this current roster.
