If rockets can fix Green's Jump shot they can fix Paolo's you can't teach players to have the playmaking skills that Paolo have. having playmakers in KPJ, Paolo and AP is going to be great.
Paolo was the main focus on defenses in college, he will not be in Houston, as the 3rd option to start you should see his numbers rise. DD
Who’s the 2nd option? I’m hoping Paolo can at least be the 2nd option behind Green, especially considering he’s at best an average defender on the other side of the floor.
The first two options will likely be the guards, KPJ and Green, but with 3 guys on the court with above average passing in KPJ, Sengun, and Banchero, everyone should have plenty to eat.
Whole team last year had taken a step backwards in FTs, I am sure its being worked on this year no need to worry.
This is the real conundrum. We saw that we have two alpha dogs in the backcourt with KPJ and Green. They showed they can dominate an offense like steph and Klay. I’m not saying don’t take Paolo, but its his defense that is the issue. I would try to trade up for 1 or 2 for Jabari or Chet. There is not a big enough difference between the three on the offensive side of the ball, so fit becomes the deciding factor.
That's only if you buy into the narrative about his defense. I don't. He's got the physical tools to play defense, all I've seen that suggests he's a poor defender is based on him resting on that side of the ball or lapses in focus. Both things that can be fixed fairly easily. He won't be doing the heavy lifting on offense in Houston, so he won't feel the need to rest on that side of the ball and he's a very smart player, so that suggests he's coachable. I don't see him as a defensive stopper, but I think he can be at least solid defensively. Personally I think trading up would cost too much to be worthwhile. When you have 3 stellar big men to choose from and you are #3, just sit back and take the guy that drops to you.
Warriors did all right with 3 mediocre defenders in Steph/Klay/KD because they had Draymond back there mucking things up all over the place. So maybe Eason can be that for us, if we can move up and grab him.
If people really want to examine Paolo’s midrange game and scoring at the rim, then by all means have at it. Just keep in mind Jabari scoring 43% from inside the arc is the worst shooting percentage of any top 5 prospect coming out of college in the last decade. How many of those players were even forwards? Jabari is 6’10. If we pretend he shot that percentage in the NBA last year, he’d be one of the 15-20 least efficient players in the entire NBA from inside the arc. It’s very easy to look up. Most of those players obviously are guards and some have been successful (vanvleet) only two forwards in the NBA were that bad from 2 last year. Mike Scott and Carmelo Anthony. Are we assuming Jabari will have more success against NBA defenses? His attempts at the rim were already historically low especially for a big man. He scores about 5 paint points per 40 minutes as a 6’10 forward. Alongside the list illustrating his historically low shooting at the rim for a forward coming out of college, here are the list of forwards shooting a comparable percentage of shots at the rim in the NBA. This is only accounting forwards. Many of these players performed better in college but regressed presumably because of having to face NBA defenses. Davis Bertans, Garrison Matthews, Danny Green, Carmelo Anthony, Jae Crowder, Duncan Robinson, Marcus Morris, Danilo Gallinari, Mike Scott, Denzel Valentine, Rodney Hood, Wes Matthews, Ben Mclemore, Semi Ojele, Joe Ingles. That’s it folks. How inspiring is that list? You can put Reggie Bullock and Gary Trent Jr there as well if you really want to pretend they are forwards. If you consider Jabari’s overall field goal percentage and place it in the context of the NBA without adjusting for the jump in difficulty, again he ranks bottom of the barrel. He shot the same percentage as notorious chucker Jerami Grant yet didn’t score as much as Grant and Grant did it against much tougher competition. Most of the players in this range again are guards. If he can’t dribble and shows no ability to pass or create his own shot then his 3 point shot and defense must be GOAT from a college athlete to be considered #1. Is Jabari the best defensive player in the class? I doubt anyone believes that. How much did playing with the DPOY in Walker Kessler help him? Why didn’t Jabari win the award? Is he a top 5 defensive player in the class? Isn’t it conceivable his defense is overhyped all things considered? Considering these very real deficiencies, he needs to be the best defender in the class if I’m taking him #1. The shooting was very nice but the three point line is further out in the NBA and defenses are much better. If teams run him off the 3 point line, do you feel comfortable with Jabari making the right play when he shows 0 ability to make plays for others? Or would you just trust him to score as one of the 20 worst 2% players in the entire league? Look up Klay’s 2% and really consider if that’s the comp you want to go with. As good as .430 from 3 on 5.5 shots is, do you trust him to be consistent in big games? What happens when defenses tighten in playoffs and force players to adapt? How a player adapts and fairs under pressure is important. If your game is one dimensional and the 3 point shot is heavily guarded, how do you compensate? In the NCAA tournament here are Banchero’s stats. • 36 MPG • 19.3 PTS • 7.0 REB • 4.0 AST • 1.3 STL • 1.0 BLK 55 FG% (22/40) 54 3P% (7/13) 70 FT% (7/10) When the pressure is at its highest and defenses are specifically scheming to stop the other team’s best scorer, some players thrive and some falter. Banchero stepped up in the biggest games of his career. This is what we call the “it” factor. He was the de facto leader of the team and got them to a final 4 appearance. He did this with outstanding efficiency and he came up big in the clutch. Thanks to his versatile offensive game he was able to react to whatever defenses threw at him and score at a very high efficiency. Jabari scored 10 points on 18% shooting in the biggest game of his career. His 3 point shot failed him 1-8 for 12% from 3 and he showed no ability to adapt. He lead his team to a pre sweet 16 exit and an embarrassing upset loss. How does he get his shot off when NBA defense key on him similar to the treatment he got in the tournament. Or is the argument really that defenses won’t key in on a #1 overall pick? Aside from his 3 point shooting, offensively he is just bad. He needs to diversify his offense if he’s going to make an impact in the NBA. That is just way too one dimensional for my liking. Against the same Miami team which held Jabari to 10 points on 18% shooting, Bancharo led his team to a semi finals win scoring 18 points on 80% shooting. Some of the weaknesses of Jabari are significant enough that they lead to historically bad numbers coming out of college. His overall efficiency is bottom of the league in the NBA and Jabari shot this percentage against college defenses. How is he expected to be better than that against better competition? Paolo isn’t historically bad at anything. Regarding his 3pt shot he shot above 35% on catch and shoot 3’s and was comfortably over 50% on corner 3’s. This post doesn’t even address the complete lack of playmaking, inability to dribble and only touches on the failure at creating his own shot. If he’s only a 3 point specialist and statistically bad at everything else, he better be a perpetual DPOY candidate if he’s the number 1 pick. Mikal Bridges is perpetually in conversation for DPOY and shot 42% from 3 one season. Considering how hard it is to be a DPOY candidate, would people be happy with Mikal Bridges if Jabari ever reaches that level? Is Mikal Bridges a #1 overall pick? This is of course assuming we don’t even consider Bridges came in shooting .548 on 2% as a rookie and grew into shooting .647 inside the arc.
Great post. Im concerned with Chet for some of the same reasons in terms of leadership and showing up for big games. There is something to be said for being a clutch performer. Chet's 3 was atrocious during the tourney and even during the regular season he didnt really impose his will vs "weaker" competition. I love Chets defense as much as I love Jabaris shooting stroke --- but there has to be more IMO from a guy you're drafting at the top. That guy needs to be able to steer the ship if you ever need him to. Banchero was a freshman thrust onto an All Star team and had to figure out how to play with everyone and it took some time to iron out the wrinkles plus Banchero is far from a hero ball player. He did everything he could to keep all his teammates involved. When games were on the line Paolo just did his superstar thing.
Neither Klay or KD are mediocre defenders. But all in favor of Eason as cornerstone of Rockets defense.
I hope both ORL and OKC agree with you. Just FYI - paint points will improve for all top 3 players whennthey get to NBA. Why? Because, unlike the packed paint of NCAA, NBA is much more wide open and all 3 players are going to have added opportunities to take advantage of all that extra space.
Concerned? Chet straight up just didn't do it. When they played each other Paolo eviscerated him in the half he did play. I think the one game Chet had that you'd call his "signature" game would be the BYU game. Paolo had like a dozen signature games against the best competition the NCAA has to offer. I was told that Chet has this "alpha" personality and I watched so many games waiting for it to come out and instead I saw Timme in the post running the offense. Both Chet and Jabari have legimitate concerns when it comes to offense. Jabari can not dribble. At all. Not only that, he looks uncomfortable doing it. Chet supposedly can create his own shot off the dribble but I didn't see enough of that to say that he can definitely do this at the pro level. Chet's game against UT was almost as bad as Jabari's game vs Miami (which oddly enough you cannot find his game footage on YT outside of the entire game tape). At this point if it came down to it and let's say the Magic picked Paolo at 1, and the Thunder took Chet at 2, I'm not sure I'd be entirely comfortable taking Jabari over Ivey. The Rockets are far away from playoff contention or WCF contention but guys who are able to break down defenses off the dribble dont grow on trees and it's getting much harder to get those guys in free agency due to the superteam era dying.
Per your analysis, Paolo should be unanimous #1 while both Chet and Jabari would be fortunate to be top 10, maybe not even lottery caliber. Hope it happens per your analysis, it would give Rockets more options. But we will see how the draft actually plans out.
This is exactly why I feel Banchero (and Chet) will excel in the NBA. The NBA is more suited toward his game and that game already translated efficiently at the college level. I’m trying to stay as objective as possible but those are the numbers. This is for pick #1. Anything that results in historically bad numbers or bottom of the league efficiency should cause concern and cannot just be glossed over. I really do think big games matter and the ability to adapt is key. I cannot find one offensive trait outside of 3 point shooting that is even close to average. The best players can’t be schemed for as they have a versatile enough skill set to impose their will on a game regardless of the stakes or how a defense wants to play them. Banchero stepped up because he has a diversified enough skill set to score efficiently regardless of what the defense takes away. Jabari didn’t step up in part because if his 3 point shot is taken away, he has nothing else to offer at a high level. That lack of playmaking and inefficiency sent them home early.
