I disagree about the odds of that outcome given his performance and the latest going rate for effective SP. But I understand your logic.
If Houston intends on adding a bat, I think it’ll be someone in the midst of an elite offensive season. Here’s the current list of hitters that have posted a wRC+ >120 so far this season, who are on teams that currently project to have <20% chance of making the playoffs (min 100 pa): Ty France Willson Contreras Garrett Cooper Trey Mancini CJ Cron Andrew Benintendi Juan Soto Austin Hays Eugenio Suarez Jonah Heim Brian Anderson Ian Happ Julio Rodriguez Jazz Chisholm Tyler Stephenson MJ Melendez Brandon Drury Harold Castro KeBryan Hayes (Josh Bell has <100 pa.) Bell and Contreras still seem like the obvious targets (if a move is really needed at all), but I’m also intrigued by Cooper, Happ, Benintendi, and Suarez.
It is really hard to gage the trade market at this point because of the expanded field. There are some possible 1st basemen out there. Ty France with the Mariners is an interesting player for example, but I think he is playing at such a level right now that cost would be prohibitive. Josh Bell is obviously a possibility and there are some guys that can play all over the diamond. The trade cost of Josh Bell will largely depend on any competitors needing a first baseman. Another possible target is Josh Naylor with Cleveland. Jonathan India with the Reds can play some first if the Astros want to go that route. He may be expensive in trade though. At catcher we may be looking for a platoon or back up type catcher. There are guys like Daulton Varsho that can catch and play 1st and the outfield and hit well enough to get at bats. Tyler Stephenson with the Reds is playing well, but I expect him to not be available of the cost absurd. Wilson Contreras is the most logical target, but there are a LOT of teams with a starting catcher with an OPS sub .600% and his demand at the deadline could be very high, even though he will be a free agent.
For a handful of 2nd tier prospects Houston could probably get close to one of the all time best playoff lineups: Altuve Brantley Contreras Alvarez Bregman Tucker Pena Bell Meyers with a bench of Gurriel, Maldy, Dubon, and one of Diaz/Siri/McCormick I think the price of Contreras and Bell could be heavily influenced by the outcome of negotiations on the international draft, since both players would likely fetch a QO if no international draft is agreed to and the compensation system is kept. That won’t be decided until July 25.
Contreras worries me that in being easily the best C trade acquisition likely available the Cubs are going to extract a healthy premium for him.
Trey Mancini can play a corner outfield spot or 1st base. He would be a possible fit. Suarez makes a decent amount of money going forward and strikes out a lot, but he can play all over.
I have decided any talk or idea about trading for a catcher is simply a waste of all our time. Jim Crane will give all his money to charity and join a monastery before Maldy is replaced at catcher this year.
Suarez should cost zero in prospect capital and has significant upside. I could see Houston taking him on as a replacement for Diaz and/or Gurriel.
The Cubs have been listening to deals on Contreras for at least two seasons. I know for a fact that the Astros have reached out a couple times about Contreras in the past and the Cubs wanted entirely too much in return.
Agreed that he should cost nothing in prospect capital (unless part of his salary is covered). He can certainly hit for a lot of power, he can also play a lot of spots and that is something that the Astros value. His only downside is that he strikes out a lot. I wouldn't be adverse to the Astros getting him.
@Snake Diggit Did you seriously include Julio Rodriguez on that list? LOL the Mariners are not trading him, especially to a division rival. They may sell but he is going to be a building block. I doubt Stevenson and India are available either. The Reds have quietly been heating up lately, and while they suck they do have a plan, and that plan certainly revolves around both of them. Mancini has been my preferred target for some time. Can play 1B, LF, and RF, so he gives us flexibility. He has even splits, good walk numbers, MMP is a good park for him. Camden’s new LF is suppressing some of his power. Josh Bell I have soured on as he has pretty big splits (not nearly as good vs LHP), and doesn’t have the same position flexibility.
That was not a list of realistic trade targets. It was just a list of hitters filtered for 3 criteria (hitting >120 wRC+, on a non-contender, >100 pa).
I think it is an all-inclusive list of everyone that is a good hitter on a bad team based on the parameters Snake set. Julio is the one who put himself on that list.
Over the last month I've moved from the could make a move, to the need to make a move camp. Yuli looks done, Maldy is a lock to be terrible, Myers is unproven and coming off major surgery. The next tier of hitter are Brantley, whose basically a platoon singles hitter now, Bregman who I fully expect to be better, but not hit for much power, and Pena who I've always been a fan of, but is still a rookie. Collectively I expect this group to be good, but not good enough to significantly offset 3 dead spots in the lineup, particularly the absolute zero at catcher. All in all, at this point I expect this lineup could very well be exactly what it's been so far, average, maybe above average. I expect our pitching will stay good, but I don't think it will be as good as it's been. I think complacently running this same lineup out there in October just because we've been good in the past would be a major mistake. 2 bad hitter, 2 postseason unproven rookies, and 2 guys that won't hit for much power.
I think it would be wise for them to make a move, especially with the market for expiring contract players being overly tepid IMO (a team like the Astros really only needs their best available in the playoffs). The problem is that the market is so incredibly dry at the positions the Astros need help with and you now have the expanded playoff pool. I also agree with you on the "dead spots" in the line up, this same Astros team has showed that their offense is substantially better going from 3 to 2 dead spots. The obvious solution is Contreras or Bell or someone that can play some center (assuming you don't believe that Meyers/Siri or McCormick can get it done). I will trust the Astros scouts and coaches on Yuli, but his bat looks slow to me and it is reflected in his walks and some of advanced stats. Does adding Bell to play 1st improve the team's line up enough? Is Ian Happ enough of an improvement over Meyers/McCormick to justify moving assets? Bell shouldn't be overly expensive.... I personally would hit Bell 3rd and move Tucker up in the line up, but I suspect Dusty would have a line up line the following. Altuve Brantley Bregman Alvarez Bell Tucker Pena Meyers Maldonado
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I doubt the Astros worry about Pena being a rookie or CF that much in that Chas is hitting well even if Meyers struggles when back. That said, Maldy and Yuli are really holding the offense back. The Astros should be scoring a few more runs even with those two. I don't know what the Astros do (i.e., I'm not sure the Astros just get a 1B rental), but I expect something to change with lineup to get Yuli in lineup less unless he bounces back soon.
If the Astros decide that his bat speed is diminished or he isn't picking up the ball; I have to think they move hard towards a rental like Bell. He is the type of hitter they tend to like (walks and doesn't strike out) and he is a rental so not overly expensive. They can let him walk if they want and let Jones or Met compete for the job next year or likely resign Bell at a reasonable rate.
I'm not really worried about Pena, not thrilled if Chaz the everyday CF. Just that's a few more wild cards than one would like given the seeming offensive dead weight are hauling.
