I appreciate the effort. I do think most of your data is correct but i do see some flaws in assumptions. My basic arbitration estimates: Tucker - 6 Valdez - 5 Urquidy - 2.5 Javier - 3 Stanek - 4 Maton - 2.5 Roughly 23... They are then at 166 excluding the rest of the 40 man roster, LF, C, and 1B. Thats closer to 70 million under the tax than 30... probably about 50-55... Plugging in the same money at C and 1B, then assuming 12 million for a LF, that puts them about 190 with Verlander at 25. Here's where they can get creative... they can do a 3 year deal on Verlander for 75 million with 30, 25, and 20. That keeps his number the same for tax giving him a bump and spreading over more years to make up for smaller up front than market rate. So no bump there. If as i suggested, Yordan is primary LF then the 12 million for LF shifts to DH, which is what i was suggesting with Perez; similar to Greinke situation... you then have Maldonado and Lee at catcher for roughly the same money. Odorizzi is likely to be traded either at the deadline or in the offseason if he's not out. He's good value but lacks a spot in the rotation. I don't expect him to be on the roster for us to be paying his buyout bonus. If they wanted to pinch pennies, they could deal Odorizzi at the deadline, non-tender or trade Stanek/Maton. That should shave 14 million off payroll. Figure 4 million for replacements and roughly 10 million saved. The only significant money after 2 years is McCullers, Yordan, Pressly, and extensions. I bring up because it means they are unlikely to be put into tax for extended period should they choose to for 1 or 2 years. There's a good chance Altuve/Bregman take paycuts by then to stick around. They have plenty of money to wiggle around. They just spent 8 million on Neris. Teams tight on money don't pay 33 year old setup men... They have Abreu, Paredes, McDermott, Whitley, and other young arms to replenish the bullpen on the cheap... I think the truth lies somewhere between our numbers... it's entirely possible the truth is closer to yours...
LOL... so your answer is they have 70 million if they don't bring back any of the arbitration guys.... Okay dude... I'm done.
Do you understand how the buyout works? Odorizzi chooses whether to accept $3.25 million from the Astros and then is a free agent able to sign a contract of his choice. ( no way he gets less than $5 mil) Or he accepts $6.5 to pitch for the Astros next year. There are escalators based on games started or games of 4+IP but every one he hits increases his value as a free agent next year. In short every scenario leads to him taking the buyout to do nothing and then cash in with a bigger contract. So there is no chance that he DOES NOT make more money by accepting the buyout unless he's hurt during the offseason and it effects his availability next season
If this were a fantasy baseball team and not a real one, then I would agree with you. It’s not though
Yeah, I'm just going to go ahead and block you now. You aren't a reasonable person who can actually admit they are wrong. I've already acknowledged the 70 million was incorrect; so epic troll job by you there. I gave you the actual numbers and it came in with 50-55 after arbitration but ignoring the rest of the 40 man. Good luck with the whole jerk thing. I'm sure it will get you far in life...
Do you understand the Astros don't pay buyout money for players on other teams? You really think if he's pitching well we aren't flipping him for prospects? I get your comment based on my poorly worded one alone. Keep reading... The scenario where we let Odorizzi walk as a free agent seems to be the least likely one. That's the scenario where we pay a buyout.
So let me make sure I’m clear on all this 1. We want a replacement for Yuli cause he looks like he is done 2. We want to trade for Perez because although he hasn’t been good at all, it’s only a third of a season and he will surely rebound and become a great DH Makes perfect sense
Given what Scherzer signed for there's no way JV is signing for 25 mil. He could be looking at 2 yr 80 mil with an option.
I doubt there's a bunch of teams with 40 million to spend on Verlander who are trying to win. He could sign for more than 25 with his tax figure at 25. Just have to extend him out further and spread the money over more years.
True.. but i would think we're in better position to match than any teams on our level. Tampa perhaps but it's not their mo... We're 10th in payroll this year. Here are the division leaders with lower payrolls: Twins Brewers I guess he could want to go there... seems unlikely with Carlos there after last season's rumors. Brewers have excellent starters already. They could afford him for a couple years before Burnes, Woodruff, and Adames get their deals. I think they go offense before a starter. If you're looking at good teams needing Verlander to put them over... Angels have ohtani extension to deal with. Ward, Sandoval, and Walsh are starting arbitration. Ohtani is likely getting a huge bump in year 3 arbitration. Braves have plenty of pitching, it just gets hurt a lot. Cardinals? Flaherty and Hudson are due for deals soon. Maybe they add Verlander for 1 or 2 years. Padres are full of pitching. Giants are closer to full rebuild than not. So maybe the Cardinals... i don't know if it's worth the extra 5 or 10 million to him to uproot to new situation where he maybe wins a division...
This is wrong unless there is unique deal with Odorizzi in which terms are being used in a manner that is different than normal. A buyout allows a team to buy out a contract year(s) instead of paying a full salary. The player gets to select a player option. If he declines option, no buyout as team doesn't have to buy out a year. If he accepts option, the team then has option to buy out contract or keep him at full salary. I'm pretty sure Odorizzi has met the options to make player option and buyout worth: $12.5M/$6.25M.
Thanks. I WILL keep reading. There is a lot !! I love this site ( reasonably new). I don't get a lot of Astros fans in Idaho to chat with, lol. I really only see 3 options. 1) Astros trade Odorizzi 2) Odorizzi accepts the buyout because he can get more than $3.25 mil - $6.5 mil on the open so he gets a contract + that buyout. 3) Odorizzi is hurt going into next season AND will.miss a big chunk or all of 2023 so he accepts the option. I see #1 as the least likely, although it's the one I prefer.
Option 2 doesn't exist. Odorizzi's decision is to accept player option or not. If he accepts option, the Astros either play him at full contract or pay buyout to get out of 2023 year. He cannot accept player option and then force Astros to buy him out; or decline option and then force Astros to buy him out of a year that for all intents and purposes doesn't exist once he declines option. For Option 3, if Odorizzi will miss 2023, but he accepts option, the Astros will choose to buy him out.
There is almost zero chance Odorizzi is an Astro next year. He will either decline his option or the Astros will buy him out. The contract was designed to increase Odo’s 2 year guarantee without increasing the AAV. I also find it incredibly unlikely that Houston trades Odorizzi this year. He is valuable to them as a MoR/BoR SP and no other contender is likely to offer Houston enough for them to give that depth up, since Odo isn’t the type of pitcher teams would target in hopes of starting a playoff game.
If he accepts option, it will only cost Astros $6.25M more to keep him in 2023. Unless he's injured, he will likely be worth $6.25M, and Astros will not exercise their ability to buy out the last year. Trading him in the offseason has the same issues as trading him now except much more likely to need an extra starter over a full year than 2 months and other teams won't be desperate for a starter in the offseason.
But if he stays healthy he will likely opt out, since he would be able to command more money on the free agent market.
I don't think Verlander wants to be viewed as a mercenary. I have mo idea how much weight it carries but I bet the Astros and Tigers are his 2 preferred options. Especially after the way Jim Crane handled this contract I bet he stays on a lesser ( than Scherzer) but longer than anyone else is offering. I think another 2 yrs $25 per, with a 3rd year player option with a buyout of about $10. That's an AAV OF $30 mil. I think the years are more important to him than the money. He wants to pitch a few more years. The Astros want him to go into the HOF in an Astros hat. It's not cheap, but a win-win as long as he stays healthy.
Except he wasn't able to command more money per year a couple of years ago. There is a grey area that he will be worth between $6.25M and $12.5M. It hasn't even been a full season since he was worth between $6.25M and $12.5M relatively healthy. Despite his great start, there is a great chance he ends up worth between $6.25M and $12.5M.
Agreed. There is no scenario where Odorizzi is in the Astros rotation next year unless the team resigns him after he takes his buy out. And I simply don't see that. Not enough money to go around. He is either a free agent or being paid by the Astros but hurt.
