I didn't know Garver was hurt, but he would be a massive upgrade offensive over Maldy. The floor is that low - he's a below replacement level player. Stallings is having a down year but has been a good player over the past couple of seasons. These are dudes who are practically free in terms of trade cost and would immediately bake in a win or two.
I'm confused, you're arguing the big money is a reason to keep a 32 year old catcher hitting .199 this season????? It's a gamble by Houston he would rebound and they would likely want some of his money covered like Greinke. Perez is #137 in ops among 164 qualified hitters. We have one of the only catchers hitting worse than him... Face of the franchises though you don't give up on after a 3rd of a season of bad hitting... i doubt he's available but the Royals would be wise to move on...
Except the hope is he goes back to the guy who led the AL in 2 of the 3 triple crown categories. He can catch 3 of the 5 starters and dh one of those other days leaving him regular rest. The Royals are in the same place with him as Diamondbacks were with Greinke. Not saying there aren't better deals out there, but i would entertain it depending on cost...
Thanks for supporting my point about him as a dh option next year.... great point... Just like Yordan hitting better when he's in the field.... seems to fit nicely...
Thanks for supporting my point: "Face of the franchises though you don't give up on after a 3rd of a season of bad hitting... i doubt he's available but the Royals would be wise to move on..."
You want him because he appears to be getting hot and torched the Astros..... if he went 0-15 I doubt this trade idea comes from you. It doesn't make much sense for either side.
The only element of that is you would hope it's a sign he's coming out of it.... He's on a down year. If he was hitting like the top 10 mvp candidate he was last year there's no possibility he goes to market. I peg it at 10%-20% chance as is if Royals are worried they get stuck with him at 20 million a year. He could be serviceable as an exclusive dh so i don't know if they are that concerned yet. There aren't many catchers with Machete's pedigree and Perez is most years.
It doesn't make sense to upgrade our league worst hitting catcher? If you want someone on a cheap contract and hitting well while not a complete nothing on defense be prepared for an offer similar to what the Marlins got for Realmuto. I don't think we have the prospects to make that offer, hence the bargain basement hunting for older guy on big contract with rebuilding team many years away....
Again, there is no way Trout gets traded unless he pretty much demands it from the Angels because he's tired of losing. However, I would say Trout is the one guy that has had a mega contract and has easily outperformed it and will continue to outperform it until his wheels fall off. His worse full season WAR has been 6.9. His lowest OPS has .939. Think about .939 in a down year. The guys is a stud, and has outplayed his contract so far. We take Trout in a heart beat, but I know there would be a line out the door from the likes of NY's, Boston, and LA Dodgers for his services.
It doesn't make sense for the Astros to spend 20 mil a year PLUS prospects on a gamble that isn't even playing catcher everyday anymore. I'm not in favor of Yordan playing more in the outfield. I hope whomever they replace Brantley with is a good fielder and keeps Yordan at DH most of the time. The Astros have a bunch of high priced contracts already and several guys that are going to start getting a lot more expensive as they enter arbitration. Astros aren't going to have a ton of room to add payroll unless Verlander leaves. Brantley coming off the books is more than erased by Bregman's raise alone. Diaz coming off the books is wiped out by Pressly's raise. Verlander will get a significant raise if he keeps pitching this way. Odorizzi and Baez will be 5.25 million in dead money and possibly more depending on how many innings Odorizzi pitches this season. Yordan's 7 million dollar raise wipes out Montero and Castro coming off the books. Arbitration raises to Tucker, Framber, Javier, Stanek, Maton, Urquidy, and Taylor will more than wipe out Yuli coming off the books. So no, I don't think it makes sense to spend 20 million on upgrading catcher by adding a guy that plays more DH than catcher and is a gamble that he will return to form considering the payroll situation...
Tell it to Crane. When he signs someone to an 8 year deal and breaks his own rules I'll believe it's a possibility...
So trading for Greinke made no sense to you? 1) Why do you assume they take on all 20 million? 2) Korey Lee will be a cheap primary catcher. Perez could potentially make the lineup as a dh and provide for a 3rd catcher while also mentoring Lee. 3) If Yordan could play everyday in left at an average level and not affect his offense you would take it and use dh rotation to a degree. 4) Your math is off. They are at 136 million next season WITH Verlander for 25 and Yordan updated. That also assumes Odorizzi for 6.5 which if he's healthy he's going to decline. They could spend another 70 million and not pay any tax. You tell me what the arbitration guys cost... i can't see how it's more than 35 million for Tucker, Valdez, Urquidy, Javier, Maton, and Stanek... If Yordan is playing mostly left then you don't need a replacement for Brantley. Money saved... I like Diaz, but i doubt they pay extra to keep him. He could probably get a multiyear deal around 25 million over 3. There are cheaper options for us... Also, Verlander and Altuve are off the books before the serious Yordan money kicks in.
You are missing several payroll items. I'm going to show you the best way I've found to estimate the payroll. I'm not sure what site you are using. I would suggest fangraphs or Cots. Spotrac tends to have more errors. I will link cots and fangraphs below... https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/payroll/astros https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/al-west/houston-astros/ The easiest way is to start with the current luxury tax or CB tax payroll for this season and then work backwards. If we want the actual non-luxury tax payroll we can adjust for that at the end. Luxury tax payroll uses average annual value for contracts. I'm assuming Verlander will get a raise and I'm going with 37.5 as an estimated salary. Arb raises number will be the difference between what they make in 2022 and and estimate for 2023 (Framber makes 3 million in 2022... I'll use 9 million for 2023 estimate so his arb raise is 9-3 = 6 million) Both cots and fangraphs have the lux tax payroll for this season right around 198 million. Cots has 198.286 million and fangraphs has 198.541 million. I will start with 198.4 for what we are doing and then I will start adding and subtracting... 198.4 2022 lux tax payroll -4.45 Diaz -16 Brantley -8 Gurriel -6.25 Baez -7.83 Odorizzi -4.75 Castro -2.1 Goodrum (assuming they cut him and don't offer arbitration) 146.295 -2.725 Montero +5 Pressly AAV raise + 18.4 Alvarez AAV raise (=115/6 =19.1666 AAV -764,600 2022 salary) +20 (ROUGH arb raises for Tucker, Framber, Stanek, Maton, Javier, Taylor, and Urquidy) +12.5 estimated Verlander raise +.5 estimated increase for player benefits which is included in luxury tax calculations = 202.695 lux tax payroll estimate for 2023 This is without a 1st baseman to replace Gurriel or a left fielder to replace Brantley and with an unknown salary for Pena who will get pre-arb bonus pool. Now to count actual payroll you have to adjust aav to real salaries on some guys and subtract player benefits, etc 202.695 +10.5 million (Bregman actual salary 30.5 - 20 AAV = 10.5) -11.33 million (Alvarez actual salary 7.833 - 19.166 AAV = -11.33) -1 million (Pressly actual salary 14 million - 15 AAV = -1) + 5.8 million (Altuve actual salary 29.2 million- 23.4 AAV = 5.8 million) -.5 million (Nerris actual salary 8 million - 8.5 AAV = -.5) -1.05 million (McCullers actual salary 15.95 million - 17 AAV = -1.05) +2 million (Baez buyout) +3.25 million (Odorizzi buyout and could be up to 6.25 million depending on innings pitched) -16.5 million (player benefits) = 193.865 actual estimated 2023 payroll These numbers aren't perfect but are in the ballpark. Obviously, Verlander is a massive factor....
It's a fair point about the average salaries of the contracts counting for tax purposes. That being said, you're basically projecting everything into fictional numbers. Why would Odorizzi get a buyout? If he outperforms he's getting double the money on the market. If he doesn't It's an option year. Why take a buyout?
You're also assuming no actions to manipulate the tax. For example they could offer extensions and spread out altuve and Bregman over more years...not sure how calculations changes but they can also trade players. You assume 37.5 million for Verlander but they could include a 10 million player option and spread out 47.5/2. Also, the tax figure is 233 million and they are well under that, so the real dollars are the only thing that matters... 12-15 million on a dh and part time catcher isn't a lot if they can hit...
I didn't fictionalize anything regarding Odorizzi. The 7.83 million is his AAV on his current contract. The buyout is part of his contract... Odorizzi has a player option on his contract for 2023. The option is 6.5 million with a buyout of 3.25. Both the option and buyout can increase based on the number of games he throws where he records 12 outs or more. The option can increase to 12.5 million and the buyout can increase to 6.25 million. Unless Odorizzi is hurt it doesn't make sense for him to take the option. He can take the 3.25 buyout and only need to make 4 million on the free agent market to be ahead. It's slightly more complicated than that because of the incenitves but it is likely that he takes the buyout. Spotrac breaks it down pretty well if you read the contract notes at the bottom. https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/houston-astros/jake-odorizzi-11583/
In my scenario where they pay Verlander 37.5 million they are 30.5 under the 233 million dollar luxury tax. You said they had 70 million to spend not including the Verlander 25 million. What you suggest for the Verlander deal does nothing to change the luxury tax salary. Player options don't count for AAV.
As i stated before, i didn't factor in the average salaries. Please do try to keep up. If i miss something i do admit it.. i also included Verlander at the option amount because they aren't obligated for any more than that. Their real salaries do put them about 70 million under. Everything else are numbers subject to manipulation...
