I agree with the general sentiment but it really comes down to how you evaluate the gap between some of these players. Eason is ready to play today, Sochan has the highest defensive upside and Dieng has the upside of a two way all star. If the Rockets have them all in the same class, then I agree.
Ok I have given the second selection a decent amount of thought. Assuming the consensus is correct and the Rockets take Banchero at the 3rd pick I'd love to see them select a defensive minded player with offensive ability in the front court to pair with Sengun and Banchero at #17. The eventual trade of Wood will help with minutes and open roster for more front court defense in the future. I really think a true front court player is going to be slim pickings at #17. I know at this stage of the roster, drafting the BPA is best practice but if they can get a really good big I prefer that over a guard/wing. There are "lock 6" players that are a highly likely to go before Portland's pick at 7. Smith, Holmgren, Banchero, Ivy, Sharpe, and Murray. Not likely the Rockets trade to 7 with Portland but if they could and assuming those 6 are gone they have their choice of the best of the rest. If any of the "lock 6" are available then no regrets swooping in that talent. Note I rarely see Portland looking at a big at #7. Maybe trades at other spots could happen. Here are some other spots that have been rumored to be possible. I think Kings #4 would be too costly. Pacers at #6 would be great but I doubt they want Gordon or Wood and future picks. Pelicans I think are happy with what they can add at #8, It sounds like the Spurs want to move up from #9 and consolidate some picks, so they aren't a likely partner here with the Rockets. Wizard at # 10-maybe the Rockets could strike a deal but seems unlikely ATM but I'd love to see the Rockets here. Knicks very unlikely at #11. Thunder #12 you never know with Presti , he loves his future picks. Hornets are interesting since they have #13 and #15 and could be a possible partner but they want a big if not two. I haven't heard much on the Cavs willing to move down from #14 but we might be able to trade with them since they aren't likely to go front court and dropping to #17 wouldn't be too costly. After the top 6 there are 10 players that will be drafted before the Rockets select #17. I looked at well over 50 mock drafts and watching tons of player breakdowns I am pretty confident at least 7 of these 12 players are picked before 17. There are only 5 Front court guys remaining. All 5 could to be gone before 17 along with most likely projected players in the middle of the draft. Just about a lock before 17: 1 AJ Griffin- He won't fall far if he isn't a top 7 seriously doubt he is at 17. 2 Jeremey Sochan- I haven't seen him below 15 in months. 3 Bennedict Mathurin- I don't think he falls any further than 12. 4 Jalen Duren Virtual lock before 17 5 Mark Williams- My choice if we are looking at a traditional 5 Elite rim pro with great shot but very slim chance he slides to 17. Maybe there at 17 6 Johnny Davis I've seen him as high as 6 and as low 24 7 Ochai Agbaji- Funny I've seen him mock as a Rocket at 17 more than any player but as high as 7 to Portland. 8 Dyson Daniels- I've seen him as high as #8 to Pelicans and as low as #19 to T-wolves. 9 Ty Ty Washington- Same as Daniels #8-#19 10 Tari Eason- I've seen him at #12 to OKC and plenty say Hornets or Hawks at #16 very rarely he is mocked after 17 (One of my choices at 17, should be a good fit I'd say it's less than 50/50 he's there at 17) 11 Ousmane Dieng- he is steady in 12-20 range 12 Walker Kessler - I include him because some think he could go as high as 15 to Hornets (I don't preferred at #17 but he has a outside chance of developing a serviceable 3 point shot, his defense is good but could become elite with work but a few mocked him as high as 15 but usually late 20's) I leave out E.J Little since he rarely mocked above 20 (measured 6'5.5" at combine but plays like a beast) Patrick Baldwin (more of a wing, and good size but many holes in his game) and Christian Koloko(already 22, his offense is dunks only- no touch whatsoever) as front court player that are ranked back half of the 1st round talent or likely 2nd round. Personally I'm not crazy about any of them at 17 but I'd be ok with E.J. Little. If the Rocket like them they should look to trade back with someone like the Spurs at #20 or #25 and pick up a 2nd rounder(#38) they can stash in the G-league. These 5 teams are likely to draft one of the 5 front court guys after the first 6 picks. #9 Spurs are just about a lock they take Sochan, they'll teach him to shoot if not then Duren if he is still there would be lock. #10 Wizard could go any direction they need talent bad. Sochan and Duren have been mocked here some. #11 Knicks would love a big to play defense but they could go Davis for Tibs #13 and #15 Hornets likely to take at least 1 big if not 2 in Eason and Williams #16 seems unlikely to trade up 1 spot to the Hawks. They are seen drafting everything so they would probably love Eason/Williams/Duren here. So I believe the Wizards are the key primarily. If they like Ty TY Washington they might be willing to trade down or the just draft him at #10. Maybe they take Daniels at #10 and Knicks go Davis at #11 and that might leave a big for the Rockets besides just Kessler. Otherwise Stone and company will be forced to be aggressive with the Hornets to get front court help that can have potential to play as a 2 way player. In the event they can't land at Duren,/Williams or Eason they can just be happy with BPA maybe Washington. Daniels, Dieng, Davis or Agbaji. Other rarely mentioned strong options I like on the perimeter: Kendall Brown, I haven't seen him mocked at #17 but I'd be happy to see if he can develop. At least he has great size as a SF with a 6'11" wingspan and I think he can improve his already strong defense and become a serviceable shooter with practice. Blake Wesley and Bryce McGowens seem like a great trade down picks. Blake is solid defender already and Bryce can shoot better than his stats show, he took all the difficult shots carrying Nebraska plus he has a good 6' 8.5" wing span. Maybe the plan should be Ty Ty as insurance for KPJ. Ty Ty is better than most people know and I think his court vision would pair perfect with Banchero, Sengun and Green in the half court. When the transition squad is in the game he'll push the fast break and make the best pass every time with perfection. So if at 17 most plausible dream to me would be Eason/Williams or Duren. If they aren't there I think I'm leaning Ty Ty baring someone like Sochan/Griffin unbelievable falls. If Magic or OKC throw everyone for a loop I'm not sure at this point because I've already drank the Kool-Aid.
When I was his combine agility measurements, his height, him being a freshman, and watched his ability to defend the perimeter in college I was instantly confused on how he isn't in the mix to be a late lotto pick, I wouldn't mind him at 17 if other guys are gone, he could potentially be a great defensive fit next to Bancher/Sengun. Wouldn't be surprised if he's gone before 17. Some mocks have him going undrafted and late 2nd, so maybe I'm a nut job.
If Eason not available at #17, draft Mark Williams then trade EGo/Tate to Hawks for Jalen Johnson. KPJ Green Jalen Johnson Chet/Jabari/Paolo Mark Williams Sengun first off bench and part of death lineup.
I'd jump all over Williams but really think after studying Williams he's gonna be gone by #13 Rare size and foot work and his ability to not jump is amazing plus he can truly pass and shoot fairly decent.
Even Portland would want us to take back salary they don’t want, to save cap space for free agents? I’m doubtful adding Wood, EG, and Tate would make them more than a first round exit. I’d consider taking back limited salary to get 7, considering we could get a solid starter at that spot. I’m in KC now, that KIng’s X show would definitely be worth a trip south to see the show and some old friends. I was a little worried with Jerry’s health they wouldn’t tour anymore.
In this draft you move up to get your guy. Weak draft, goal has to be to get two top 10 guys out of our picks. Or #3 and a future pick more valuable than #17. We need to use current players to trade up and avoid giving up meaningful future draft capital.
This is a great post and worthy of further discussion. I like TyTy at 17. With all these late risers, it's simple math that a guy like TyTy, Ochai, or Davis could fall into our lap at 17. If so, we can't overthink it based on need, those are lottery talents.
Thanks groovemachine! The funny thing to me was I was very interested in finding a really good 2 way talent that would pair with a Banchero selection. In my initial thoughts I felt no need for a point guard at 17 despite some of KPJ's short comings. But I did a deeper look into Ty's play, primarily before he started playing banded up and this cat is a old school distributor that can score too. He is a floor general in the making. Great wing span and pretty solid defender. I feel like he'd really cut down the teams turnovers in time and generate a ton of easy looks for Green, KPJ, Segun, and Banchero in the future. I am still hoping for Williams, Eason, or Duren but Ty and even Agbaji are really solid players that could be 8-10 year solid pros. I know I can wait to see this draft because I truly believe trades are going to be made by many.
This one is fairly even sided but Rocket's trade out price is not cheap. I'm not super high on Plumlee and Walker, but to get someone like a Tari, it's probably more realistic.
